At a time of immense political discord, it is heartening to see every analyst, trader, investor and economist under the firmament agreeing on at least one thing: the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates at the end of the month. But dangers lurk beneath this unanimity.

Even this weekend's apparent truce in the Sino-US trade war did little to dent expectations that the Fed is set to slash interest rates by a whole percentage point over the coming year. That has crimped the 10-year Treasury yield back to a fraction above 2 per cent, while slashing the yield