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Welcome to Inside Politics. It is unfortunate when polls appear to show conflicting results, as the 1News Verian poll and the RNZ Reid poll did this week, within hours of each other. But the polls are much closer than they might appear.
Converted to an election result, the 1News poll would have returned the three-way coalition Government of National, Act and NZ First, whereas RNZ’s poll would have seen Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori with enough support to form a Government.
But in both polls, a three-point shift to the other bloc would reverse the result. The one takeaway from both polls is that it remains a closely contested political environment.
One of the most interesting features of both polls was the lift in the fortunes of NZ First. Last election, it polled 6.08% of the party vote, while in this week’s polls, which were both taken in the week after the Budget, the party scored 8% and 9.1%.
Curiously, leader Winston Peters disappeared immediately after the Budget for a week on a four-country tour as Foreign Minister. But one of the more enduring images of the buildup to the Budget was Peters’ confrontation with a heckler at the Wellington Railway Station when he was announcing a big boost to KiwiRail.
He has clearly got plenty of fight in him, and the party is maintaining a high profile in its so-called War on Woke (pregnant “women”, not pregnant “people”) and in Shane Jones’ unapologetic promotion of the mining and resources sector.
Act deputy leader and Workplace Minister Brooke van Velden cemented her reputation among the unions as an anti-worker minister with her law changes designed to reduce pay equity settlements for low-paid women, rushed through under urgency.
That was reinforced on Sunday with the employer-friendly announcement that WorkSafe will become more focused on an advisory role, rather than its enforcement role.
According to WorkSafe’s numbers, there were 62 workplace deaths last year and an estimated 750 to 900 work-related deaths caused by long-term exposure to hazards and illness caused by acute injury (so 15 deaths a week at a conservative estimate), plus 5000 to 6000 hospitalisations each year due to work-related ill health.
As the Council of Trade Unions economist and Labour Party luminary Craig Renney put it, the latest WorkSafe changes were made without a regulatory impact statement [*see below] to see who would be affected, and without proper consultation.
And the latest move was on top of other measures that have upset the unions including removing fair pay agreements, removing protections for the living wage in Government contracts [not part of van Velden’s portfolio], bringing back 90-day trials, pay deductions for partial strikes and removing access for some employees to personal grievance claims.
She justified her moves on WorkSafe by saying: “A culture where the regulator is feared for its punitive actions rather than appreciated for its ability to provide clear and consistent guidance is not conducive to positive outcomes in the workplace.”
The Government had been remarkably free of scandal until last night’s revelations by Stuff that one of the Prime Minister’s press secretaries, Michael Forbes, had been the subject of a police complaint by sex workers last year over photos and recordings he had made.
He previously worked for Social Development Minister Louise Upston and for Judith Collins when she was National Party leader.
One of the unanswered questions so far is how far up the police food chain the complaint went and, if it was to Police HQ, why the Beehive was not notified. Police Commissioner Richard Chambers was quick to distance himself from the issue this morning, saying none of it occurred on his watch.
At the invitation of Speaker Gerry Brownlee, Parliament rose in acclamation at the start of Question Time on Tuesday to wish former Prime Minister Jim Bolger a happy 90th birthday, which he celebrated on Saturday, and to convey best wishes to his wife, Joan.
Hauraki-Waikato MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke then sought the leave of the House to move a non-debatable motion asking the House to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Waikato-Tainui raupatu settlement (over which Bolger presided).
It takes only one objection to prevent such a motion and, churlishly, NZ First leader Winston Peters objected, saying it could get repetitive if they did it for all settlements. Brownlee accepted the objection, but noted it had been the first settlement.
• Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour’s debate at the Oxford Union takes place at about 7.30am tomorrow (NZT). According to his office, it will not be livestreamed but will be posted later on YouTube.
• Helen Clark will moderate a web discussion on global affairs today at the Helen Clark Foundation with Phil Goff and Tim Groser, both former Trade Ministers and former diplomats. (See Jamie Ensor’s story below, piecing together Goff’s last few hours as High Commissioner to London.)
• Three former politicians were honoured in the King’s Birthday honours list. Two former National Party Finance Ministers, Steven Joyce and Ruth Richardson, were made Companions of the New Zealand Order of Merit, while former Labour Party minister Dover Samuels was made a Companion of the King’s Service Order.
“You can show sympathy and love for all Muslim countries” – Former Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern reveals in her memoir what she told Donald Trump when he telephoned after the mosque massacres in 2109, asking if there was anything America could do.
Who launched a road-cone tipline on Sunday? (Answer at the bottom of this article.)
Goes to Minister Chris Bishop for making a fuss about the overtly political response to Stan Walker’s performance of Māori ki te Ao at the Aotearoa Music Awards, including Toitū te Tiriti flags being waved. “What a load of crap,” Bishop said. He was there as the plus-one to Arts and Culture Minister Paul Goldsmith, who was unfussed. In his favour, Bishop is one of the few ministers who is devoted to NZ music – and he was quick to acknowledge his poor behaviour.
Goes to Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka for tightening up on persistently disruptive tenants in state houses, with a 600% rise in warnings.
Press sec resignation: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s deputy chief press secretary has resigned after he allegedly recorded and photographed women without their consent.
1 News-Verian poll: Both Labour and National have taken a hit in the latest political polling by 1News-Verian, but the right bloc still holds sway.
RNZ-Reid Research poll: After the Budget and pay equity changes, the left bloc would have the support to turf the coalition out of power, the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll shows.
House haka sanctions: The debate on whether Te Pāti Māori co-leaders will face the toughest Parliamentary sanctions ever dished out continues today after it was abruptly adjourned last month.
Awards controversy: Popular Kiwi band Fur Patrol has hit back after Government minister Chris Bishop described a Stan Walker performance at this week’s Aotearoa Music Awards as a “load of crap”.
Deepfake porn: The Government is open to exploring ways it can further crack down on the creation and distribution of non-consensual AI-generated porn.
Quiz answer: Brooke van Velden as Workplace Minister
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Deputy PM says English debate was "great fun", despite his team's defeat.