By Russell Palmer of RNZ
After the Budget and pay equity changes, the left bloc would have the support to turf the coalition out of power, the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll shows.
The preferred Prime Minister and leadership ratings are also bad news for the Government, with the exception of Winston Peters who has seen his highest result since 2017 – and ratings of the Government’s general performance have also continued to slide.
With Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori all gaining compared to the previous poll taken in March, they would have a majority with 63 seats between them, compared to the coalition’s 57 – again, New Zealand First was the only coalition party to see a boost.
The poll was taken in the seven days following the release of the Budget and after the $12.8 billion pay equity changes – which RNZ’s polling also shows attracting more opposition than support.
National continued a downward trend from the March survey, dropping 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% of the party vote – and overtaken by Labour, which gained 0.9 percentage points to 33.2%.
The Greens’ 1.6% increase brings them back to their election-night result of 11.6%, while Te Pāti Māori’s 0.5 percentage point boost lifts them clear of the 5% threshold and – presuming they held all Māori seats – nets them a list MP.
Act dropped 2.8 points to 6.6% – the largest shift in party polling – while New Zealand First gained 1.9 points to 9.1%, upending the trend facing their coalition partners.
Undecided or non-voters made up 6.5% of those polled – up from 6.1% in the previous poll.
For parties outside Parliament, TOP (The Opportunities Party) gained 0.4 points to 2.2%, New Conservatives fell 0.3 points to 0.8%, and all others combined were at 0.3 points, a 0.1 point increase on the last survey.
More New Zealanders polled say the country is going in the wrong direction (46.6%) than in the right direction (37.8%), giving a net negative result of -8.8, a substantial decrease on March’s 2.9 result.
It is little surprise, then, to see National leader Christopher Luxon’s net favourability ratings drop further into the negative, from -3.9% in March to -9.8%, with significantly more respondents (45.5%) saying he performed poorly or very poorly, than said he performed well or very well (35.7%).
That compared to Labour’s Chris Hipkins on net 5.1% rating (34% negative, 39.1% positive) – though Hipkins also saw a steeper fall of 7.1 percentage points.
The survey shows New Zealanders’ preferred prime minister as Hipkins (23.2%, up 2.3), taking the lead over Luxon (18.8%, down 3.1).
NZ First leader Winston Peters at 8.9% (up 1 point) recorded his highest result since 2017. Chlöe Swarbrick in fourth was at 6.9% (up 0.8) – a personal best and just ahead of Act’s David Seymour on 6.4% (down 0.4).
The next highest ratings were former PM Jacinda Ardern (3.7%, up 0.1), Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke (1.7%, up 0.5), Finance Minister Nicola Willis (1.1, up 0.3) and Education/Immigration Minister Erica Stanford making her first appearance at 1%.
Luxon simply rejected the poll results.
“Look, I mean, I don’t recognise the numbers. There’s lots of different polls and frankly I’m just not going to comment or focus on the polls. Frankly what we’re focused on is we were elected in ’23 and people get to decide again in 2026.
“We’ve done a good job, and that’s why we’ve got to focus on the economy, law and order, and health and education.”
He said New Zealanders had “responded really positively” to the Government’s Budget, and saw the economy turning a corner.
“There’s a sense of optimism that, you know, we actually have had to manage some very difficult things economically to get our books back in order. But we’re doing that job, and it’s all about growth, growth, growth.”
Seymour said the numbers would continue to “bounce around” but it was still a tough time for New Zealanders – and the numbers were not a reflection on the Budget.
“Different voters will have different reasons for their choices ... so long as people are voting for the economy, it’s going to be tough for parties that are tied closely to economic management,” he said.
It was possible the pay equity changes were changing some voters’ minds, he said, “but I also think doing what is right is what is politically popular in the long term, and even if I’m wrong about that, good policy is worth it anyway”.
“The fact that Act is close to where it was on election night 18 months into a government with 18 months to go is a good foundation. We have to prove ourselves on election night, and we’ve got lots of time to do that.”
Peters refused to comment on whether his coalition partners were suffering from the handling of the pay equity changes.
The next 18 months leading up to the election would show the “critical need for stability”, he said, and having ruled out working with Chris Hipkins he was “comfortable and confident in our prospects” because the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in Government would be “a nightmare”.
The 80-year-old Peters said economies internationally were in trouble as a result of “unprecedented times for the last, say, 80 years”, and the party was looking at New Zealand’s fundamentals: asset values, and the need to increase wages and decrease business tax.
“We’re out there to ensure over the next few months that we can show enough improvement in the economy from what we’re doing to make the prospects of an improved tomorrow possible.”
Hipkins was also not counting his electoral chickens, but was happy to point out the effect of the Budget, saying New Zealanders were “disillusioned” with the Government overall.
“New Zealanders can increasingly see that this Government is taking the country backwards,” he said.
“I don’t think anyone expected the Government to cancel pay equity as a way of balancing its books. Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon told New Zealanders before the election that they knew their numbers, that everything all added up. It’s clear that their numbers didn’t add up.”
He said he did not pay much attention to small shifts from the minor parties or his personal ratings in the polls.
“It’s nice to be popular, but I’m really focused on making sure I win as many votes as possible for Labour at the next election.”
Swarbrick said New Zealanders wanted a sense of hope.
“Things are feeling pretty bloody bleak. You know, we’ve got 191 New Zealanders leaving every single day, three quarters of them between the ages of 18 to 45, it’s not a recipe for a flourishing country.
“We had dozens and dozens of folks turn out to talk to us about our Green budget and the sense of hope that they feel that they need - the kind of building blocks that we can have for a fairer society.”
She said polls did not mean the writing was on the wall, but she was hearing from people that they were exhausted and fatigued – something she suggested was a deliberate strategy from the coalition.
Te Pāti Māori’s co-leader Rawiri Waititi said the poll numbers showed the party’s policies and rhetoric around the Government’s actions were appealing to new supporters.
“The kind of anti-Māori, anti-wāhine, anti-woman, anti-worker, anti-climate, anti-rainbow, anti-woke type agenda that this Government is pushing at the moment also is not appealing to the people who are trying to find a place to put their political support and trying to support those who fiercely advocate for them.”
He said their internal polling showed even higher support for the party and its style of politics – but the decreased support for Act and increase for NZ First was a zero-sum game.
“You’ve got a hard-right type voter ... I think they think that National is a little bit weak, which I agree [with] because they’re allowing Act to kind of run the show ... they will use Te Pāti Māori as their political football to kick us in the guts the hardest to garner the support of their voters, but at the end of the day the enemy for Act is New Zealand First, and the enemy for New Zealand First is Act.”
Explore the full results with RNZ’s interactive charts.
This poll of 1008 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure a representative cross section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between March 21-27, 2025 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level. The report is available here.
- RNZ
But three punters have walked away with $333,333 in First Division prize money.