All Blacks v Wallabies: How Scott Robertson’s bold changes can halt win-loss cycle in Perth

The expectation was strong that the All Blacks would restrict themselves to making mostly only injury-enforced changes to their team for Bledisloe II, but in making significantly more, perhaps coach Scott Robertson has made an inspired move to prevent his side from once again underwhelming in a repeat fixture against the same opponent.

This win-loss, win-loss pattern has been the story of the All Blacks’ Rugby Championship where they beat Argentina and then lost to them, and then did the same against South Africa – failing on both occasions to revitalise or freshen their strategic offering.

So, what Robertson has potentially done with his selection for the game in Perth is demonstrate an understanding of test rugby’s circadian rhythms and the need to change things up beyond what the opposition may be anticipating.

Wrapped up in the All Blacks’ new look back-row and midfield – the two combinations that have been changed not because of injury – is perhaps also the knowledge that the Wallabies are welcoming back two powerful workhorses in Will Skelton and Rob Valetini. Their presence, combined with the strategic cunning of head coach Joe Schmidt, will almost certainly lead to Australia upping their intensity in Perth and being at a level above where they were last week at Eden Park.

To date, this has been the nut Robertson can’t crack – how to generate a fresh dynamic, tweaked tactical blueprint and improved energy against the same team his side have beaten seven days prior.

Typically, he’s not been prepared to overly tinker with his personnel to get the necessary changes, but this week he’s finally embraced the idea that new faces can add something rather than derail a winning team.

The All Blacks perform their haka ahead of last weekend's match against Australia at Eden Park. Photo / Alyse Wright

Essentially, the equation Robertson and his fellow selectors had to weigh up was whether it would be a bigger risk to pick mostly the same combinations again or make a few changes in the hope they can freshen the gameplan, ask different questions of the Wallabies and change the dynamic of the test.

Clearly, by the fact Peter Lakai has come in at No 8 for Wallace Sititi, the selectors came down on the side of change being the lower risk, higher reward path.

And on this specific change, it’s hard to disagree with the logic of introducing a second No 7 to play alongside Ardie Savea and give the All Blacks greater foraging ability.

As the second half played out last week in Auckland, the quite brilliant Australian trio of Fraser McReight, Tom Hooper and Harry Wilson started to pick off too many turnovers and dominate the tackled ball area.

Lakai is arguably a better turnover exponent than Sititi and his introduction at No 8 would seem mostly about giving the All Blacks greater presence in what will be a critical facet, while also broadening the experience of the talent base – a failure to do much of this last year being a criticism that was levelled at Robertson.

If nothing else, Lakai will bring an energy and eagerness that comes when players who have had limited gametime are brought into the fold.

The other key tactical shift has been to break up the Hurricanes midfield partnership of Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor, which has been the go-to combination in 2025.

If the argument against breaking it up last week was that it felt high-risk to introduce a new combination against Australia, given their midfield is such an obvious strength, then it’s one that could have been used again this week.

Barrett and Proctor had a sound outing at Eden Park, but Quinn Tupaea also pressed his claim to start by delivering a solid stint out of position on the wing, which came after a series of promising cameos in his preferred midfield slot.

To some degree, the risk of putting Barrett and Tupaea together for the first time is mitigated by the minutes they have racked up together once the latter has been injected from the bench.

Whatever the risk, the potential upside is that it will change the running power of the All Blacks midfield and potentially the shape of their attack in that the key strike areas may shift to try to play the bruising Tupaea into holes in the middle of the field.

The enforced promotion of Damian McKenzie from the bench to No 10 is another significant shapeshifter for the All Blacks as he comes with an entirely different bag of tricks to the man he is replacing, Beauden Barrett.

While McKenzie can be erratic in his decision-making and lax in his skill execution, his natural propensity is to play closer to the gainline than Barrett does, and his speed of movement east-to-west can drag defenders out of position and create opportunities for strike runners.

There is no guarantee these personnel changes will deliver what the coaches want, but in principle, they make sense and demonstrate that Robertson is at least trying to learn on the job.

All Blacks:

1. Tamaiti Williams, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Fletcher Newell, 4. Scott Barrett (c), 5. Tupou Vaa’i, 6. Simon Parker, 7. Ardie Savea, 8. Peter Lakai, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Damian McKenzie, 11. Leicester Fainga’anuku, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Quinn Tupaea, 14. Leroy Carter, 15. Will Jordan.

Bench: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. George Bower, 18. Pasilio Tosi, 19. Patrick Tuipulotu, 20. Wallace Sititi, 21. Cortez Ratima, 22. Rieko Ioane, 23. Ruben Love.

Wallabies:

1. James Slipper, 2. Billy Pollard, 3. Allan Alaalatoa, 4. Nick Frost, 5. Will Skelton, 6. Tom Hooper, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. Harry Wilson (c), 9. Jake Gordon, 10. Tane Edmed, 11. Filipo Daugunu, 12. Len Ikitau, 13. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 14. Harry Potter, 15. Max Jorgensen,

Reserves: 16. Josh Nasser, 17. Tom Robertson, 18. Taniela Tupou, 19. Jeremy Williams, 20. Rob Valetini, 21. Ryan Lonergan, 22. James O’Connor, 23. Josh Flook.

Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.