This is a transcript of the Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click here, select ‘Inside Politics with Audrey Young’ and save your preferences.
Welcome to Inside Politics. There were three winners from the Herald‘s annual Mood of the Boardroom survey: Education Minister Erica Stanford, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Labour finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds.
The first two were rated best ministerial performance by the 150 business leaders taking part, Stanford at the top for the second year running. Despite her shortcomings that are not necessarily evident, it elevates Stanford as a viable contender for the party leadership if Christopher Luxon were to step down next year.
An important caveat: things would have to get a lot worse for National than they are now before Luxon would do that. But if they did worsen, she would need to be considered as a serious contender. In a piece in July on the leadership, I rated her behind Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis, in terms of any vacancy, and much more suited to a deputy’s role.
But while Bishop and Willis can’t be discounted, their stocks have fallen. Bishop, who is the smartest guy in Cabinet, is probably not the flavour of the month in Auckland as he pushes the Government’s moves there for housing intensification. And Nicola Willis could not make the top 10 in the CEO ratings yesterday. She was No 13. But Luxon was even worse at 15. For Luxon, that must have been a cutting rejection by his own business tribe. What’s more, the survey was taken before the revelation of last week’s GDP figures showing a 0.9% slump in the June quarter.
Stanford has done a superb job in education, with the added handicap of being a National minister in a sector traditionally hostile to National, and is on top of Immigration. She comes from Auckland. But in terms of appeal, she is more popular outside the caucus than inside it. She is not considered a team player. She becomes almost obsessively involved in her areas of responsibility and does not delegate well. And she lacks the financial literacy that others would have over her at a time when it matters most. There’s a world of difference between being a good Education Minister and a good leader.
On the other hand, if things got desperate enough for Luxon to throw in the towel, the caucus might be desperate enough to replace him with her, despite those shortcomings. And as Jacinda Ardern demonstrated in 2017, people can unexpectedly rise to an unknown challenge.
On Winston Peters’ extraordinary rise, Fran O’Sullivan, who has run Mood of the Boardroom for 23 years, noted yesterday that 15 years ago, the things business leaders said about him were unprintable, “unless you wanted to be tied up in a 10-year defamation suit”.
“At 80, he has reached this new height and people do rate him well.”
Edmonds, a former tax lawyer and ministerial official, took over as shadow finance minister last year after Grant Robertson left politics. Despite the obvious handicap of having virtually no policy, she has improved with time and matched Willis confidently from the podium yesterday. She also impressed with her reflections on having worked in the office of Stuart Nash, who has switched allegiances to NZ First, but is in the dog box after vulgar comments about what defines a woman.
Edmonds: “My lesson with Stuart is that even people who are given great responsibility, they can trip up. But the major thing I have learned ... is take accountability for it, apologise and do better, and it is the same message I give to Stuart, even now.”
Nicola Willis: “I think that is a very fair assessment.”
The CEOs marked Edmonds as the best Opposition performer, followed by Kieran McAnulty and Labour leader Chris Hipkins.
One of the surprises is that the CEOs did not include Act leader David Seymour in their top 10. He came in at No 11 but his deputy, Brooke van Velden, who has been reforming labour law, ranked higher, at No 8.
So the big day finally approaches when New Zealanders will learn what the Government’s position is on the recognition of Palestine when Winston Peters addresses the United Nations. The Foreign Minister’s office reckons the speech will be delivered between 10am and 1pm on Saturday, NZ time, and they should be able to narrow it down before then.
There is no earthly reason for telling the rest of the world before us, except to give the Government a chance to change its mind at the last minute if New Zealand finds itself too isolated. At present, other hold-outs on recognition include Germany, Italy and South Korea. Nothing Peters has said so far at the UN this week suggests he is about to change camps.
The Prime Minister earlier in the week ruled out an “agree to disagree” resolution for Act on the issue, which would allow New Zealand to recognise Palestine but without Act. So David Seymour won’t be given any leeway to take a different view, RNZ put it to Luxon. “Correct,” he said. “We will have a Government position on this issue.”
In an extraordinary move, a group of Republican legislators in the United States wrote a threatening letter to the allied countries planning to recognise Palestine, including Australia.
“Hamas’ war crimes are clear, and its rejection of diplomacy should lead your countries to impose more pressure. Instead, you offer greater rewards,” they wrote.
“Proceeding with recognition will put your country at odds with long-standing US policy and interests and may invite punitive measures in response.”
Workplace Minister Brooke van Velden has made a good fist of releasing proposals to simplify the way sick leave and holiday leave are calculated. There are winners and losers, but overall it seems reasonable. Labour doubled sick leave in 2021 from five days to 10 days statutory minimum, but instead of a pro-rata rate for part-timers, it gave the 10-day entitlement to all workers after six months, even if they worked only one day a week. That is one of the losses in the new proposals. Entitlements for everyone will begin on day one and be based on the hours worked.
Van Velden has had mild criticism, but nothing like the backlash she experienced from unions in May when she rushed through changes to pay equity laws without consultation. This time, the bill will go through a full parliamentary process, including select committees. She is not legislating away people’s claims for holiday pay that has been incorrectly paid in the past.
Council of Trade Unions (CTU) president Richard Wagstaff is stepping down next month after 10 years, and my interview with him is below.
• Foreign Minister Winston Peters didn’t make it to US President Donald Trump’s reception at the UN because he got caught in New York traffic.
• In an unusual collaboration, the CTU Māori council and the National Iwi Chairs Forum pou tikanga group are teaming up to have a joint “national day of solidarity” from 12pm on October 28. They are calling the initiative Rā Whakamana. “Mass mobilisations are being organised across the country ... to send a powerful message that Māori and workers will not back down in the face of the Government’s ongoing attacks on our people,” their statement says. It aims “to affirm that tino rangatiratanga and workers’ rights are interwoven legacies”. The significance of the chosen date is that it was when He Whakaputanga was signed in 1835 – also known as the Declaration of Independence of the United Tribes of New Zealand – and it was the date of the first Labour Day in New Zealand, in 1890.
“I think you would have seen less focus on Māori-related issues.” Refreshing bluntness from Nicola Willis to a question asking what National would have done differently without its coalition partners, Act and NZ First.
Which three ministers from both National and Labour did Labour’s Barbara Edmonds work for as a tax specialist before entering Parliament herself in 2020? (Answers at the bottom of this article.)
Goes to President Trump for his pseudo-scientific views linking child vaccines and paracetamol to autism. Possibly the most dangerous thing he has said in his second term.
Goes to new Reserve Bank Governor Dr Anna Breman, who had an impressive first outing at her press conference yesterday with Finance Minister Nicola Willis. We don’t need RBNZ governors to have big personalities and egos. She seems to oblige.
New RBNZ boss: New Reserve Bank Governor announced: Swedish economist Dr Anna Breman gets top job
Leadership speculation: Exasperated Finance Minister Nicola Willis denies future PM run
Coalition compromises: National-only Government would have focused less on ‘Māori-related issues’ – Nicola Willis
Mood of the Boardroom: Erica Stanford leads rankings, Luxon and Willis fail to make top 10
Mood of the Boardroom: Labour’s front bench scores poorly in business leaders’ survey
Sick leave: Sick leave entitlement for part-time work scrapped as Govt reforms Holidays Act
Greens resignation: Green Party chief of staff resigns, citing ‘health, wellbeing and whānau’
Opinion: Christopher Luxon leadership strain: What’s the strategy on the ninth floor? – Audrey Young
Union brickbat: Leading trade unionist Richard Wagstaff says Key met with him regularly, but Luxon has refused
Quiz answer: Judith Collins, Michael Woodhouse and Stuart Nash.
For more political news and views, listen to On the Tiles, the Herald’s politics podcast.