Sunday, 10 December 2023
KaitaiaWhangareiDargavilleAucklandThamesTaurangaHamiltonWhakataneRotoruaTokoroaTe KuitiTaumarunuiTaupoGisborneNew PlymouthNapierHastingsDannevirkeWhanganuiPalmerston NorthLevinParaparaumuMastertonWellingtonMotuekaNelsonBlenheimWestportReeftonKaikouraGreymouthHokitikaChristchurchAshburtonTimaruWanakaOamaruQueenstownDunedinGoreInvercargill
NZ HeraldThe Northern AdvocateThe Northland AgeThe AucklanderWaikato HeraldBay Of Plenty TimesRotorua Daily PostHawke's Bay TodayWhanganui ChronicleThe Stratford PressManawatu GuardianKapiti NewsHorowhenua ChronicleTe Awamutu CourierVivaEat WellOneRoofDRIVEN Car GuideThe CountryPhoto SalesiHeart RadioRestaurant Hub
Voyager 2023 media awards
Subscribe
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Politics

Election 2023: Audrey Young - even an economic miracle can’t save Labour now

Audrey Young
By
Audrey Young
11 Sep, 2023 11:29 PM6 mins to read
Saveshare

Share this article

Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

facebookcopy linktwitterlinkedinredditemail
Heather du Plessis-Allan, Barry Soper, Phil O'Reilly and Richard Hills thrash out the big political issues in the lead up to Election 2023.

OPINION

This is a transcript of Audrey Young’s subscriber-only Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click on your profile at nzherald.co.nz and select ‘Newsletters’. For a step-by-step guide, click here.

Welcome to the Politics Briefing. If the polls were closer, this would be perhaps the most important day of the election campaign, with Treasury sharing its revised forecasts.

But the 8.8-point gap between National and Act on the one hand and Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party in last night’s Newshub-Reid Research poll suggests that even if there were a miraculous turn-around in the books and economic outlook, it is likely too late for Labour to get back on track.

Grant Robertson may be comforted by the fact that things would be so much worse if he had not cut $4 billion out of his spending plans recently when tax revenue weakened. One outcome of the polls, however, is that even more scrutiny is likely to be applied to National’s plans and to shadow finance minister Nicola Willis.

It’s little wonder the public service is bracing itself. On top of Robertson’s cuts, Willis has already promised $8.4b more in savings over four years to part-fund her tax cuts. Another $6.2b is supposedly coming from new initiatives such as a tax on selling large amounts of luxury homes to foreign buyers. And if that revenue stream was not as real as she hoped, the tax cuts would be funded by even more cuts to government spending. Deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan has done a great backgrounder on the Pre-Election Fiscal Update and a piece on last night’s poll.

Christopher Luxon had a terrible interview on Sunday with Q+A’s Jack Tame about the credibility of the tax plan, which is only one part of National’s fiscal plan. But even Chris Hipkins acknowledged this morning there is a mood for change.

Armed with Treasury’s new forecasts, Luxon and Willis will be back to the drawing board to finalise their fiscal plan, and it needs to be a lot sharper than the “trust-me” bluster we’ve seen so far. Political editor Claire Trevett was not impressed with Luxon’s performance, as her comment piece shows. “It will go down as the interview of no answers,” she wrote.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
National leader Christopher Luxon and finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis in Parliament. Photo / Mark Mitchell
National leader Christopher Luxon and finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis in Parliament. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Act leader David Seymour is making it clear he will not settle for policy peanuts when it comes to doing any coalition deal with National, and that he has some leverage. He has raised the possibility of giving National support on confidence votes as a minority government but with Act on the cross-benches holding a veto on spending policies on a case-by-case basis. It would be a recipe for constant conflict. It may well be a bluff and simply a negotiating stance. Derek Cheng reports on it.

Chris Hipkins launched Labour’s nine-point pledge flyer on Sunday following Luxon’s pledge card announcement at the campaign launch. Labour must be wondering if the same informant who told National about its work on a wealth tax and taking GST off fresh fruit and veges told National about its pledge plan. Bizarrely, among Labour’s top nine priorities is its policy to introduce financial literacy to schools. Not a bad policy but hardly a top priority.

On a lighter note, in our series on leaders unplugged, Michael Neilson goes surfing with Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Claire Trevett gets a guided tour of Upper Hutt from Chris Hipkins.

Candidate debate

The large and colourful line-up of Northland candidates is fronting for the Taxpayers’ Union debate tonight at 7pm moderated by the hosts of The Working Group podcast, left-winger Martyn Bradbury and right-winger Damien Grant. They do ask great questions. Northland is the most marginal seat in the country and the electorate has made a habit of changing MPs: after National’s Mike Sabin resigned, Winston Peters won the byelection but was beaten by National’s Matt King at the next general election, who was beaten by Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime at the last general election by 163 votes. National Party stalwart and farmer Grant McCallum is contesting the seat, along with Act list MP and farmer Mark Cameron, former NZ First MP Shane Jones, and Matt King is back as leader of the DemocracyNZ party.

Quote unquote

“I didn’t see it coming at the time but it has made an enormous difference because it has given a whole lot of people permission to look at the party again, and, in particular, it has given women an opportunity to look at the party again” - David Seymour on adding pink to Act’s traditional colours. (See my campaigns story below.)

Brickbat

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi. Photo / Getty Images
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi. Photo / Getty Images

Goes to Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, who told Q+A’s Jack Tame that National and Act want to see Māori die seven to 10 years early. Just incredible.

Bouquet

To Jack Tame, who pushed back on Waititi and who has also put Chris Hipkins, Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon through the fire lately - and burned some of them.

Latest political news and views

- OPINION: With less than three weeks to go before early voting starts, it already looks like the only thing that can save Chris Hipkins’ party and government is a miracle, writes Thomas Coughlan.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

- ANALYSIS: Act’s David Seymour has floated the possibility of a “policy-by-policy” governing arrangement with National, writes Derek Cheng.

- Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer takes the Herald’s Michael Neilson out for a surf at her home break.

- Labour leader Chris Hipkins introduces political editor Claire Trevett to the delights of his favourite pie shop.

- ANALYSIS: At 1pm today, the Government opens its books. Thomas Coughlan takes an educated guess at what they’ll show.

- Audrey Young looks at who’s running the parties’ campaigns and how much money they have to spend.

- OPINION: In an interview with Jack Tame on Sunday, for the first time in a while, National leader Christopher Luxon looked like the first-term MP that he is, writes Claire Trevett.

- Labour leader Chris Hipkins has started a “pledge card” battle with National, unveiling his party’s own list of first-term priorities.

- Te Pāti Māori is challenging Labour to abolish prisons by 2040 and introduce a tikanga-based justice system.

- Road user charges will apply to all vehicles, including electric vehicles, if National wins the election.

- The Greens say any future government they are part of will legislate to protect 30 per cent of the country’s marine spaces by 2030.

- The Act Party has lost its fifth candidate in eight weeks after Brent Miles, who was running in Taranaki King Country, withdrew from the race.

- New Zealand First leader Winston Peters told supporters at a public meeting in Nelson on Sunday that Māori are “not indigenous”.

- National says it will build more social houses than Labour faster by allowing private community housing providers to compete for Government contracts.

Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.

For more political news and views, listen to On the Campaign, the Herald’s politics podcast.

Saveshare

Share this article

Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

facebookcopy linktwitterlinkedinredditemail
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Politics

Premium
New Zealand|Politics

Heather du Plessis-Allan: 'Uncomfortable' National ministers in for ride over race relations policies

09 Dec 04:00 PM
Premium
Politics

Beehive Diaries: Luxon tries to start a new trend, Parker's DIY disaster

09 Dec 04:00 PM
Politics

Govt considering trimming funding for Covid vaccine amid budget squeeze

09 Dec 06:17 AM
Premium
Politics

Out of office: Chris Hipkins on power, pressure - and Scrabble with partner Toni

08 Dec 04:00 PM

“Never been a better time to buy an EV”

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Politics

Premium
Heather du Plessis-Allan: 'Uncomfortable' National ministers in for ride over race relations policies

Heather du Plessis-Allan: 'Uncomfortable' National ministers in for ride over race relations policies

09 Dec 04:00 PM

OPINION: Not everyone in the coalition Govt is thrilled about its race relations policies.

Premium
Beehive Diaries: Luxon tries to start a new trend, Parker's DIY disaster

Beehive Diaries: Luxon tries to start a new trend, Parker's DIY disaster

09 Dec 04:00 PM
Govt considering trimming funding for Covid vaccine amid budget squeeze

Govt considering trimming funding for Covid vaccine amid budget squeeze

09 Dec 06:17 AM
Premium
Out of office: Chris Hipkins on power, pressure - and Scrabble with partner Toni

Out of office: Chris Hipkins on power, pressure - and Scrabble with partner Toni

08 Dec 04:00 PM
9 big questions over an EV road trip
sponsored

9 big questions over an EV road trip

About NZMEHelp & SupportContact UsSubscribe to NZ HeraldHouse Rules
Manage Your Print SubscriptionNZ Herald E-EditionAdvertise with NZMEBook Your AdPrivacy Policy
Terms of UseCompetition Terms & ConditionsSubscriptions Terms & Conditions
© Copyright 2023 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP