Blues captain Patrick Tuipulotu lifts the Super Rugby Pacific trophy after last year's final. Photo / Photosport
NZME’s stable of rugby experts answer all the big questions ahead of the Super Rugby Pacific playoffs.
Liam Napier: The top two teams – Chiefs and Crusaders this year – earning the first week off would have been a much simpler, cleaner format. Trying to explain to the uninitiated why the highest-ranked “lucky loser” gets a second life while dropping one ranking position is something of a Rubik’s cube scenario that leaves the casual fan blankly staring into oblivion.
It also creates the bizarre notion that, in the last qualifying final between the Brumbies and Hurricanes, both teams could know they are safe for another week before kickoff.
Elliott Smith: Better than eight teams making the cut, but still a bit nonsensical. Super Rugby Pacific bosses again putting broadcaster and financial desires ahead of competition integrity. The fairest scenario would be to give the top two seeds a week off and create some more jeopardy with two sudden-death fixtures. But with some Kiwi franchises (and broadcasters) relying on the home gates of playoff matches to turn a profit, it’s no wonder there are more playoff games.
I’m personally fine with the second chance for a top team, but the “lucky loser” should slide to the bottom of the seedings – rather than just down one spot. You’re already getting a second life; you should have to do it the hard way rather than (possibly) playing at home.
Alex Powell: It’s dumb. Teams should never be rewarded for failure, especially in a knockout.
Yes, Super Rugby Pacific’s finals format needed to change after the loss of the Melbourne Rebels. That’s not in dispute. But changing to a top six at the very least needed to mirror what we see in the A-League, where the top two qualifiers get a week off, and allow three through six to play off for a semifinal place.
Instead, we’re entering the first week of finals without any real clue if a team’s season will be done as soon as they lose, given the highest-placed loser still advances anyway.
Make it make sense.
Nick Bewley: Too much weight has been given (presumably to the host broadcasters) to hold three matches in the opening round of the finals. The top two teams should have been given a week off, while the third seeds hosted the sixth seeds and the fourth taking on the fifth for the right to advance to the semis.
That would mean every game has a do-or-die element to it, which can’t be said for this format. While this is more of a scheduling issue, the competition should’ve done more to avoid a probable scenario where the Brumbies and Hurricanes run out on to GIO Stadium in Canberra on Saturday night knowing they are both safe for another week.
Napier: The Chiefs are the obvious answer, having lost the past two finals and with Clayton McMillan departing to lead Munster – but after their nosedive season, the Blues have everything to prove.
How does an All Blacks-laden team traverse from winning such a dominant, breakthrough title to scraping into sixth – after recruiting Beauden Barrett?
Smith: The Chiefs. Folded at home in 2023 against a Crusaders side who found an extra gear to go to in the last days of their dynasty to come to Hamilton and blow them down – then were barely in it at Eden Park in last year’s final as the Blues reached their destiny.
It’s win or bust for the Chiefs or they gain a reputation as nearly men. This is the last year of Clayton McMillan’s tenure and with that comes an expectation they’ll send him off with the title he probably deserves for his time with the side. If not, it’s unfinished business and a question as to whether his side can rise for the big moments as he ships off to Munster.
Powell: The Brumbies. The loss of the Melbourne Rebels has strengthened the four remaining Australian sides in a way that few could have predicted.
Now, though, it’s time to show that when it counts. Before 2025, the Brumbies were without question the most impressive outfit that Australia had to offer.
Not since 2018 have another Australian team finished the regular season ahead of them. And while they’ve managed to claim the odd Kiwi scalp in the occasional quarter-final, a semifinal exit usually awaits them a week later.
With all the gains made across the Tasman over the past season, now needs to be the time one of their sides turns it into a championship.
Bewley: The Chiefs. Who knows if they will get a better chance than this. Another finals-format quirk means irrespective of what happens on Saturday against the Blues, they will host a semifinal the following week. They’ve earned that right as the top seeds.
But more importantly, they need to prove that this team won’t be remembered as the nearly men. They’ve been here before at the top of the log in 2023 and fell to the Crusaders at home in the final. They came again last year only to be swept aside by a bruising Blues outfit. They’ve got the talent, they’ve got a life, they’ve got the motivation to send off their talismanic coach in style. They’ve got to deliver.
Napier: Damian McKenzie.
Provided the Chiefs lay the desired platform, expect McKenzie to seize his moments to jink his way to the fore in the coming weeks.
Smith: Damian McKenzie.
Where he goes, the Chiefs go. It’s no coincidence that in his worst performance of the season, the Chiefs lost to the Waratahs. But those are rare for McKenzie and if he’s on song for the Chiefs in the playoffs, it’s very hard to see them being stopped in the closing weeks of the competition. Especially if he and they have learned the lessons from the past few years. Game management has been his biggest work-on and he’s found that in recent months. Super Rugby by and large has required an international-standard 10 to win the title and while every team have a past or present test 10 in their roster, McKenzie has the pack and backs to deliver.
Powell: Clayton McMillan.
The Chiefs have arguably been the most consistent side in the past four seasons since he took over from Warren Gatland.
They’ve made three out of the last four finals – only to lose them all. In 2021 and 2023, they were beaten by the Crusaders, while the Blues pipped them at the finish line last year.
Already in 2025, they’ve been the pace-setters – even if they did finish the regular season level on points with the Crusaders.
With McMillan leaving for Irish side Munster at the end of the season, the Chiefs have one last chance to at the very least crown what’s been one of their better eras in Super Rugby.
Bewley: Will Jordan.
All Blacks assistant coach Scott Hansen once said when he was on the Crusaders coaching staff that the livewire fullback was worth 10 points to any team he played for. His return off a knee injury for Friday’s home clash against the Reds couldn’t be better timed for Rob Penney’s charges – who could very well avoid playing another New Zealand side next week if they handle their business and the other top seeds prevail.
The Crusaders’ attack has been inconsistent during Jordan’s absence, with just the two tries from pick and goes near the ruck coming from their last appearance in Christchurch against the Highlanders. Provided that knee is 100%, Jordan can provide the spark his side so desperately need to collect more Super Rugby silverware.
Napier: Chiefs, Hurricanes, Crusaders, Brumbies
Smith: Chiefs, Crusaders, Brumbies, Hurricanes
Powell: Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes, Brumbies
Bewley: Chiefs, Crusaders, Brumbies, Hurricanes.
The Brumbies outscored the Hurricanes five tries to four to keep their season alive.