The Warriors are huge underdogs going into their match against the Penrith Panthers at Go Media Stadium on Saturday.
Sometimes old wisdom is the best wisdom.
This week, I messaged my father, now living on the Gold Coast. I had a simple question: Do you give the Warriors any chance against Penrith?
Born in Manly, Dad was a good footy player in his day, on the cusp of first grade at the Sea Eagles in the early 1970s, where legends like Bob Fulton, Fred Jones and Terry Randall plied their trade.
My uncle always described him as a bit of a “natural”, and Dad played plenty of reserve grade. But in his early 20s, he stepped away, more focused on taking on the bookmakers at Randwick and Rosehill (successfully) and setting up his own freight forwarding business.
But he still knows his footy, and his answer was on point.
“They are a big chance,” he said. “As long as they don’t try and go around the Panthers, [but] go through the middle. A little luck would also help.”
There were other observations: Chanel Harris-Tavita needs to get more involved; they have to pin down Dylan Edwards; Wayde Egan and Leka Halasima are due big games; the right edge remains a worry – but it’s hard to disagree with the core one. You can analyse all day and night, but this match will be won in the middle, and dominating the Penrith pack is the only hope.
At their best this season, Andrew Webster’s men have been direct and purposeful, and everything has flowed from there. At their worst, they have been sideways and lateral on attack, with predictable set plays swallowed up by well-drilled opponents.
While the recent focus has been on the Warriors’ defence, which has lost its connection since the heady heights of May and June, the attack has been almost as big an issue. They have lost their zip and confidence, which has led to ineffective sets, built frustration and saved opposition energy.
That needs to change on Saturday, with a more clinical and enterprising approach, without risking too much too early. That is another difficult aspect of this match; Penrith make few mistakes and are quick to punish opposition errors.
As Burgess senior said: “The Warriors have to take every chance they get, including goal kicks – because you know Nathan Cleary will.”
But the Auckland side have a puncher’s chance, especially if they start well and feed off the crowd. But a lot needs to go their way, including the bounce of the ball and the rugby league gods. Penrith are finals masters, with 16 playoff games and five consecutive grand final appearances since 2020.
Cleary is the best playmaker in the sport, while their spine has the edge on the Warriors. They have the more cohesive backline and the most dangerous centre in Casey McLean. They have the gun Kiwi second rowers Scott Sorensen and Isaiah Papali’i, and a strong bench.
But you never know. While a home triumph is unlikely, it wouldn’t be the greatest Warriors finals shock. That belongs to the legendary 2008 team, who went to Melbourne and beat a star-studded Storm team, in the 1st v 8th playoff, a catalyst for the NRL to overhaul its finals structure.
The second biggest surprise came in 2011, when Ivan Cleary’s team were again victorious in Melbourne, this time in the preliminary final, in arguably the best 80 minutes ever seen from a Warriors team. There have been others, with the thumping of the third-placed Bulldogs in 2003 a standout too.
This would be another big boilover. The presence of gamebreakers like Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Halasima offers hope, but getting close to Penrith will need superlative displays from all 17 players. It’s hard to see, simply because their defence has been nowhere near good enough for weeks, and Penrith are ruthless at exploiting weakness.
But you never know. The Warriors have historically thrived on being written off, and they will be massive underdogs for this one.
Michael Burgess has been a sports journalist for the New Zealand Herald since 2005, covering the Olympics, Fifa World Cups, and America’s Cup campaigns. He is a co-host of the Big League podcast.