The Warriors head into the NRL finals after suffering back-to-back defeats.
They will host the Penrith Panthers, the four-time reigning premiers, in an elimination final.
The Panthers have won nine of their 10 past meetings.
If there was ever a time to prove the doubters wrong, a golden opportunity has been laid on a platter for the New Zealand Warriors.
In their third consecutive trip to the NRL finals, the Warriors will open their campaign against the Penrith Panthers, the four-time reigningpremiers, on Saturday evening.
So often, the Warriors have been written off in the finals before a ball has even been kicked. And considering a second-string Panthers side already beat them earlier this season, that will be the case again.
The Warriors have stumbled into the finals on the back of consecutive defeats to the Parramatta Eels and the Manly Sea Eagles, while the Panthers head in after beating the St George Illawarra Dragons to snap their own three-game losing run.
The work done in the first half of the season was enough to secure the Warriors’ place. They started 9-3 before injuries began to wreak havoc, going 5-7 in the second half of the campaign.
With the magnitude of the fixture, it’s safe to say this will be the biggest game played at Mt Smart since their 2008 semifinal win over the Sydney Roosters.
Here are five key questions from the defeat to the Sea Eagles, looking ahead to the NRL finals.
Warriors coach Andrew Webster faces a tough task in the playoffs this weekend. Photo / Alyse Wright
Was that the worst performance of the season?
In one of the most bizarre matches you’ll see, James Fisher-Harris scored after just nine seconds – before the wheels fell off the Warriors in an error-ridden contest.
While their overall performances against the Canberra Raiders in Las Vegas or the Gold Coast Titans in Auckland might have been worse, this was an uncharacteristic outing that saw them make mistakes rarely seen this year.
Fisher-Harris’ try, although spectacular, ended up being a curse of sorts as the Warriors barely touched the ball for the next 20 minutes, allowing Manly to take control.
Despite the errors, the Warriors trailed by only four points at halftime, which should have been viewed as a positive, until the Sea Eagles opened the scoring two minutes into the second half.
Disappointing as it was, you’d rather get that sort of performance out of the system before the finals.
Warriors hooker Sam Healey. Photo / Photosport
Can the Warriors beat the Panthers?
Andrew Webster summed it up best in the post-match press conference: “No one’s given us a chance since day one.”
And he’s right. Nobody will be giving the Warriors a chance against the four-time reigning premiers, who have won nine of the last 10 meetings between the two sides.
Let’s not forget, the Panthers came to New Zealand earlier this year, missing all their Origin stars, and still dominated the Warriors.
Even the bookies have written them off, offering $67 odds on the Warriors to win it all.
History doesn’t help either. The Panthers are 3-0 against the Warriors in finals (2003, 2018, 2023).
To make matters worse, Penrith will roll out their strongest possible side, while the Warriors are once again down on troops, a theme that has hung over their season.
Everything is stacked against them. It’s hard to find a single number that offers any real hope.
But this is rugby league. Upsets happen. Wild, unthinkable, storybook moments happen. The Warriors might just need some Michael Witt-esque magic to pull this one off.
If they do, it would go down as one of the biggest shocks in NRL history, ending the Panthers’ near half-decade reign of dominance. A true Cinderella story.
Panthers players celebrate against the Warriors. Photo / Phtosport
Who replaces Rocco Berry?
Rocco Berry’s horror run with injuries has continued. He lasted just five minutes before going off with a dislocated shoulder that on-field medical staff couldn’t put back in, forcing a trip to hospital.
Somehow, Berry has still managed nine appearances this season, but he’s failed to finish four of them, a worrying trend, given his history of shoulder issues.
That leaves Webster once again having to reshuffle his line-up and weigh up his options.
Leka Halasima filled in at centre after Berry’s exit, with Webster calling his efforts a “shining light”. That could see him stay there, although another option is shifting Kurt Capewell out from the second row, which would push Halasima back into the pack.
There’s also the possibility of moving Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad into the centres and giving Taine Tuaupiki, who kicked the match-winning goal against the Panthers in 2023, a run at fullback. For balance, that might be the Warriors’ best bet: Nicoll-Klokstad is the strongest defensive option in that role, while Halasima could make an impact off the bench.
Ali Leiataua would have been another candidate, but he’s sidelined indefinitely with an ankle injury.
On the brighter side, Jackson Ford returns from a three-game suspension in a much-needed boost for the forward pack, while Eddie Ieremia-Toeava is expected to be cleared to play, despite a shoulder knock.
Rocco Berry dislocated his shoulder in the loss to the Manly Sea Eagles. Photo / Photosport
Is Erin Clark the buy of the year?
There’s been plenty of debate in recent weeks about who the NRL’s purchase of the year has been.
As expected, names such as Blaize Talagi, Isaiah Iongi, Stefano Utoikamanu and even Taylan May have been thrown into the mix. But one name has been largely forgotten: Erin Clark.
When he was signed, there were questions about how he would be used. But after the sudden retirement of Tohu Harris, Clark was handed the responsibility of filling some very big shoes. And he’s delivered.
Week after week, Clark has been among the Warriors’ three best players, setting the standard with his workrate and toughness through the middle. His performance against Manly was the clearest example yet: 23 runs for 194m, 41 tackles and nine tackle breaks. That’s the kind of output that not only wins matches but defines seasons.
If there’s one Warrior capable of forcing his way into Dally M contention, it’s Clark. At the very least, his effort against the Sea Eagles may already have sewn up the Simon Mannering Medal for Warriors Player of the Year.
Erin Clark has played in every match during the 2025 NRL season. Photo / Photosport
A star for the future?
If there was one positive to take from the defeat, it was that hooker Sam Healey isn’t shy of the big stage, producing another strong performance.
I’ve touched on the former Cronulla Sharks junior before, but once again, he proved that he looks every bit a long-term first-grader.
What stood out most was his willingness to take the line on. Nine runs for 84m is a strong return for a hooker who isn’t afraid to chance his arm. He asked questions with his speed, one of the few highlights for the Warriors, keeping Manly’s ruck defence honest and generating momentum through the middle.
Of course, there are still plenty of work-ons, but his performance does raise the question: why didn’t the Sharks fight harder to keep him?
At this rate, with so many young guns thriving at the Warriors, it might be time to sit back, close your eyes and picture a spine of Healey, Jett Cleary and Luke Metcalf, who is reportedly set to put pen to paper on a new deal before November 1, leading the club to premiership glory.
Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.
