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Latest FromBrian Fallow

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Fallow: Why Reserve Bank got its big rate cut wrong

9 May, 2019 6:42pm
6 minutes to read

COMMENT: Picture of slowing growth isn't as clear as the Reserve Bank seems to believe.

Numbers suggest labour market remains tight, but something is keeping pay rises in check. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Still waiting for wage growth

3 May, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Numbers suggest labour market remains tight, but something is keeping pay rises in check.

Zoning changes are another way to encourage landowners to develop. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Taking aim at the land bankers

26 Apr, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Government is still keen to look at ways of taxing vacant land.

The tax system helps explain why New Zealand has such a high employment rate. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Govt's CGT decision dodges a bullet

18 Apr, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Our productivity performance is already bad enough.

Phil Twyford wants a new authority to 'cut through the red tape'. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Quick fix is no fix for our failing cities

12 Apr, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Councils say Govt's planned Development Authority is no substitute for reforming RMA.

Latest figures reveal the Government has a bigger task ahead of it than previously believed. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Child-poverty targets just got tougher to reach

5 Apr, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Latest figures reveal the Govt has a bigger task ahead of it than previously believed.

Even long-lived trees don't go on forever. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: No hiding in the forests with climate change

29 Mar, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: More trees can only buy us time — the real need is to cut emissions.

Florence Patel-Gaunt, of Havelock North Primary School, makes her point at last week's climate strike. Photo, Paul Taylor.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Climate change kids are all right

22 Mar, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Schoolchildren see the need to curb emissions - so why don't the grown-ups?

Such low rates don't look sustainable in the long term, says RBNZ governor Adrian Orr. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Why low rates don't mean we should borrow more

15 Mar, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Interest rates are super-low and display little sign of rising soon.

Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Comment: Don't rush PGF in the regions

8 Mar, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: PGF is a good idea for New Zealand — too good to be botched by poor execution.

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has noted that internationally banks have tended to privatise their gains but socialise the losses. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Weighing the cost of stronger banks

1 Mar, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Reserve Bank's plans are like insurance — it's welcome when things go wrong.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: CGT could worsen NZ's economic problems

22 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

CGT on productive enterprises is no way to help Kiwi businesses become more productive.

Almost 71 per cent of working-age Kiwis are in the labour force - a high rate by world standards. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Staff wanted, so where are the pay rises?

15 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Reserve Bank must consider employment as well as inflation.

Ex-PM Jim Bolger led the pay study. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Give fair pay a go

8 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Too often, workers are caught in a race to the bottom.

Report suggests New Zealand's life insurance industry not ready for DNA challenge. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Can you trust insurers with your genes?

1 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Report suggests industry not ready for DNA challenge.

Richest NZ households have more assets, but poorest have been left behind. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

NZ's wealth gap: It's have-mores v have-nots

25 Jan, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Richest NZ households have more assets, but poorest have been left behind.

Sir Michael Cullen's group appears to be keen on taxing a wider range of capital gains. Photo / Mark Mitchell

BUSINESS

Comment: Tax focus puts growth at risk

18 Jan, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Why would Working Group take aim at capital gains, when more capital is what NZ needs?

Vote to get out of the EU has left UK facing calamity whatever direction it chooses. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Britain's three Brexit choices — all of them bad

14 Dec, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Vote to get out of the EU has left UK facing calamity whatever direction it chooses.

James Shaw expects the new fund to be an active investor. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Investing in the climate

7 Dec, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Govt's $100m green investment fund has a key focus: Cutting emissions.

Migration is still high, and the building industry is having a hard time meeting demand. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Don't ease up on LVR restrictions

23 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: Let's remember just how brutal house price inflation has been and for how long.

Who pays for the infrastructure for new homes? That's one of the questions a local body review is grappling with. Photo / Jason Oxenham

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Easing the ratepayers' burden

16 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Is there a better way of paying for the things local government provides?

Retail sales - up 5.1 per cent on September last year - are among the buoyant statistics. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Sunny numbers, cloudy outlook

9 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: Statistics are strong, but risks haven't vanished.

Wild weather and floods will only add to the rising cost of insurance. Photo / Wanganui Chronicle

BUSINESS

The real cost of living on NZ Super

2 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

For superannuitants, rates and insurance are pushing up the cost of living.

Kiwis spend more than we earn, and borrow to make up the difference. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: No time for spend and hope

26 Oct, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Global debt levels are at all-time highs, limiting our options if growth stalls.

The jury is out on the impact of rising fuel costs - and future interest rates. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Comment: How petrol prices will hit home

19 Oct, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: The jury is out on the impact of rising fuel costs — and future interest rates.

Fossil fuel buyers need to get used to the idea that prices will keep on rising. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Comment: What's wrong with petrol prices? They're too low

11 Oct, 2018 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Fossil fuel buyers should get used to the idea that prices will rise, writes Brian Fallow.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Is growth really running out of puff?

5 Oct, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

The latest business survey was downbeat again, but does that tell the whole story?

It's the welfare system, not tax, that is crucial in making incomes more level. Photo / NZME file

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Inequality a tough target for Cullen tax review

28 Sep, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

It's the welfare system - not tax changes - that can do most to make incomes more equal.

Proposals would tax gains on property sales, but not the family home. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Comment: Tax review redefines 'income'

21 Sep, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: Wider view is welcome — but only goes so far.

Don't mess with success is the Republicans' message for the November elections. Photo / AP

BUSINESS

US economy v NZ - why the winner isn't who you think

14 Sep, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

If you think the US economy is roaring away while NZ slumps - better think again.

Methane from livestock accounts for 44 per cent of NZ's climate-change emissions. Photo / NZME file

BUSINESS

Comment: Fighting climate change on the farm

6 Sep, 2018 12:00pm
5 minutes to read

The signs are that methane from livestock will be treated differently to CO2 emissions.

The Government won't relax its self-imposed budget responsibility rules, says Jacinda Ardern. Photo / Dean Purcell

BUSINESS

Comment: Ardern is right - this gloom is misplaced

30 Aug, 2018 8:25pm
6 minutes to read

Comment: The cycle is past its peak, but this economy isn't falling off a cliff.

Compared with earlier in the decade, fewer Kiwis are being lured by the attractions of Melbourne (pictured) and other Australian locations. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Migration torrent slows - but only just

24 Aug, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Makeup of migrants heads in the right direction, but work needed on KiwiBuild visas.

BUSINESS

How ready is NZ to face the next crisis?

17 Aug, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: The world is a risky place — how ready is NZ to face the next downturn?

Skilled workers are hard to find, employers report. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Employment hits the target

10 Aug, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

For workers, the trends look likely to keep heading in the right direction.

Methane from farm animals could be accounted for in a different way to other greenhouse gases. Photo / NZME file.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Climate warms towards Govt's plan to cut carbon

27 Jul, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Consensus is building behind planned Zero Carbon Act to combat climate change.

Auckland is struggling to keep up with growth, while many councils face a declining population. Photo / Doug Sherring

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Ratepayers need a break

20 Jul, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Rates keep outstripping inflation - is there a better way for councils to raise money?

New Zealand workers are putting in more time, but output per hour is well short of wealthier nations. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: NZ running faster, but falling behind

13 Jul, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

It's not hours worked that's the problem - it's how much we produce per hour.

BUSINESS

Should Kiwi businesses pay less tax?

6 Jul, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Company tax rate should stay at 28 per cent, officials tell Cullen tax review.

Lehman Brothers collapses in 2008. Ten years later, debt has hit a new peak. Photo / AP

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Wile E. Coyote and the debt cliff

29 Jun, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

The world can't shake its the debt habit -- and that adds to the level of economic risk.

New Zealand property prices soared by 71 per cent from 2010 to 2017.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Tax could prick property bubbles

22 Jun, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

New Zealand's soaring house prices make us stand out from the pack.

Methane emissions from livestock may need different treatment than carbon dioxide. Photo / NZME File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Carbon cuts we can bank on

15 Jun, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Setting goals, removing politics — Zero Carbon Bill is like the Reserve Bank Act.

Sir Michael Cullen is chairman of the Tax Working Group. Photo / Doug Sherring

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Who said tax was meant to be fair?

8 Jun, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

COMMENT: Tax Working Group has been told to aim for fairness - a near-impossible task

Cleaning up after flooding in Edgecumbe last year. Even a small rise in sea levels is likely to make big floods much more likely. Photo / Alan Gibson

BUSINESS

Property values at risk as climate changes

1 Jun, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Rising seas will mean lower prices and more costly insurance for some sites.

An oil field in Iraq. Cutting off fuel supplies is just one of the risks if the dispute with the US deepens. Photo / AP

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Budget buffer could come in handy

25 May, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

COMMENT: Calls for more spending ignore global risks.

Government has delivered extra spending, without breaking the rules of the Budget game. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Budget scrum an even contest

18 May, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

COMMENT: Govt has delivered extra spending, without breaking the rules of the Budget game.

71 per cent of the working-age population have a job, or are actively looking for one. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Looking for the job limit

11 May, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Long-term, employment is about as high as it can go.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson shows no sign of abandoning his self-imposed debt limit. Photo / Greg Bowker

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Debt - don't dig deeper

4 May, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Govt could borrow more — but there are good reasons why it shouldn't.

An expansion of forestry could see New Zealand reduce its emissions. Picture / NZME

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Cut carbon emissions? Yes we can

27 Apr, 2018 5:30am
6 minutes to read

NZ can make big reductions in greenhouse gases.

It costs many millions of dollars to drill exploration wells and the odds of a strike are 10 to 15 per cent.

BUSINESS

Fallow: Labour's oil ban a pointless, self-righteous policy

19 Apr, 2018 7:52pm
6 minutes to read

Move will be costly and do nothing for the climate.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Why the long faces from business?

13 Apr, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Is the slump in business confidence just sulking, or a sign of something deeper?

Workers strike in Auckland in the late 1970s. In terms of their income share, it's been downhill since then. Picture, NZME file

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: What about the workers' share?

6 Apr, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

For decades, wage and salary earners have been getting a smaller bite of the economic pie

Grant Robertson (L) and Adrian Orr sign the new Policy Targets Agreement. Picture, Mark Mitchell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Interest rate change? Not really

3 Apr, 2018 9:19am
6 minutes to read

New targets will probably make no difference to the Reserve Bank's interest rate calls.

For 30 years since Sir Roger Douglas' reforms, long-term savers have faced a heavy burden. Picture / Herald file

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Tax sends the wrong message on saving

23 Mar, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Maybe it's not tax on real estate that is the problem.

BUSINESS

How Trump could boost your mortgage rate

16 Mar, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

No one stands to gain from a tit-for-tat trade war.

The Government aims to have a Zero Carbon Act passed and an independent and expert Climate Commission established by the middle of next year. Picture / NZME

BUSINESS

Putting NZ on the path to zero carbon

9 Mar, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Planned law to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will have widespread economic impact.

The rest of the country can manage to build housing for the rapidly growing population, so why can't Auckland? Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Why can't Auckland build enough homes?

2 Mar, 2018 3:00pm
6 minutes to read

The rest of the country can manage to build housing for the rapidly growing population.

A study of firms has found big gaps between the best performers and the average. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Fallow: Many firms failing to catch the leader

23 Feb, 2018 6:00am
5 minutes to read

Learning new tricks often tough for companies.

Fewer elderly people own their homes, and that's a recipe for poverty among the over-65s. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Retired & renting - the trend isn't comforting

16 Feb, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Fewer elderly people own their homes, and that's a recipe for poverty among the over-65s.

The fundamental picture is a world economy that is firing on all cylinders. Photo / AP

BUSINESS

Fallow: Meanwhile, away from the markets

9 Feb, 2018 6:00am
5 minutes to read

COMMENT: While share prices plunged, the real economy is in rare good health.

Current emissions trading rules have distorted decisions on land use. Picture / NZME File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Shaw's bid to combat climate change

2 Feb, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Law to cut emissions is ambitious, but it's just part of minister's workload.

Then-PM John Key celebrates the ministerial signing of the TPP deal in 2016. Photo / Nick Reed

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: NZ takes the right trade path

26 Jan, 2018 6:00am
6 minutes to read

Gains tough to measure, but deal better than protectionism