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Will people return to their jobs in the CBD, or will many keep working from home? Photo / Dean Purcell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Looking for Covid-19's cost in the job numbers

11 Sep, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Wage subsidy appears to have succeeded, and kept people in jobs.

The Reserve Bank looks likely to push its official cash rate into negative territory next year. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Would negative interest rates be a positive move?

4 Sep, 2020 5:00am
7 minutes to read

It's not the already-low cost of borrowing that is stopping firms from investing.

A Covid-19 testing station at Otara, Auckland. Photo / Dean Purcell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: What's the real price of saving a life?

28 Aug, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

It's wrong to assess costs and benefits of fighting Covid-19 in purely monetary terms.

The Reserve Bank is confident that its actions have reduced interest rates on mortgages and other borrowing. Photo / Ted Baghurst

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Reserve Bank and Treasury play pass the parcel

20 Aug, 2020 7:00pm
7 minutes to read

RBNZ is buying nearly $1b of bonds a week — what's the result for govt debt?

Government policies can help to open the door to work, and assist employers who traditionally relied on temporary visa-holders. Photo / NZME

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: People for jobs, jobs for people

7 Aug, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Government can ease the pain of losing work, and encourage employers to hire.

If the Lake Onslow scheme does go ahead, it would take years to build, and even longer to fill. Photo / Fish & Game NZ

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Lake Onslow hydro storage scheme is no pipe dream

31 Jul, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

$30m is worth paying to investigate scheme that would help decarbonise energy.

Under the Greens' plan, ACC would be transformed to cover people not just against accidents, but sickness too. Photo / Michael Craig

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Insurance plans aren't such a sure thing

24 Jul, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Act wants to insure against unemployment; the Greens against sickness. What's the catch?

Among consumers, confidence is back at levels last seen around the time of the global financial crisis. Photo / Dean Purcell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Looking for confidence in the wake of Covid-19

17 Jul, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Despite a more positive tone lately, businesses and consumers remain far from confident.

For decades, the Tiwai Pt smelter and Manapouri have transformed NZ rainfall into US dollars. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Tiwai closure sad news - and an opportunity for the environment

10 Jul, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Power from Manapouri is much too valuable just to be frittered away.

Greens co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson. The party says its wealth tax would raise $7.9b in its first year. Photo / Mark Mitchell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Taxing wealth isn't the answer

3 Jul, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Full credit to the Greens for putting up a tax policy - but it isn't the answer.

Fireworks usher in 2017. No one wants to lose the growth since then, but how big a calamity would that really be? Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: If the future seems grim, look where we started from

26 Jun, 2020 8:00am
6 minutes to read

Statistics going in wrong direction, but it's worth remembering where they started from.

The economic carnage on Wall St in 1929 reached all the way to New Zealand. Photo, Getty Images.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: The rocky road to today's NZ

19 Jun, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

New book details the many setbacks that have interrupted NZ's growth.

Trees planted in the mid-1990s surge are reaching the point where they are no longer a carbon sink. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Putting a cap on emissions

12 Jun, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Parliament takes another step towards creating a trading scheme to fight climate change.

The oil industry is just one which is at risk of seeing its assets plunge in value because of efforts to combat climate change. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: When climate fight gets real

5 Jun, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Time is approaching for companies to disclose their risks from rising emissions.

Even before Covid-19, New Zealand was near the bottom of the class for productivity. Photo / Mark Mitchell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Back to normal isn't enough

29 May, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Even before Covid-19, New Zealand was near the bottom of the class for productivity.

Even when the border reopens, many foreigners won't be able to afford a trip to sample New Zealand's scenic delights. Photo, Mike Scott

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Wishful thinking won't save tourism jobs

22 May, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

COMMENT: Many people -- in NZ and overseas -- will be in no position to pay for a holiday.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Borrowing to reach the other side

15 May, 2020 5:00am
7 minutes to read

Here and now is the priority — dealing with soaring debt is tomorrow's problem.

Construction was among the industries hit hard by alert level 4. Photo / Michael Craig

BUSINESS

Unpicking the numbers: NZ's rising jobless and the future shape of work

8 May, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

It will be a long time before we see employment data as strong as this week's numbers.

New Zealand's $100b water, stormwater and sewage infrastructure is a leading candidate for extra spending. Photo / Dean Purcell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Opening up the local body money tap

1 May, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Councils need to spend. The funding is on the way. So how can we put the two together?

Alert level 4 has emptied the normally busy carpark at the Westfield Albany shopping centre. Photo / Brett Phibbs / PhibbsVisuals

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Four vital elements to lift spending out of lockdown

24 Apr, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Consumers need the confidence to part with their money — and things to buy with it.

Picking up unemployment papers in Florida. Job losses are soaring in the US, our third-largest export market. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Recovery mission an all-Kiwi affair

17 Apr, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

The rest of the world is in no position to pull NZ out of recession.

While we combat Covid-19, we still need to fight climate change. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Facing up to the other big issue, climate change

9 Apr, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

While we combat Covid-19, we still need to fight climate change.

Lately, NZ's economic growth has depended largely on a growing population. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: After Covid-19, migration may never be the same

3 Apr, 2020 7:00am
5 minutes to read

Lately, NZ's economic growth has depended largely on a growing population.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: How Reserve Bank is fighting the virus

27 Mar, 2020 5:00am
7 minutes to read

Central bank's mission is to make sure Government and banks have the money they need.

This week's Government and Reserve Bank action was like a bungy cord for an economy teetering on the brink. Photo / file

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: A bungy cord for a virus-hit economy

20 Mar, 2020 5:00am
5 minutes to read

This week's emergency measures won't stop the fall, but they do provide a valuable buffer.

Grant Robertson's help may be needed to counter a supply shock, argues Adrian Orr. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Wanted - a mate to help the RBNZ

13 Mar, 2020 5:00am
7 minutes to read

RBNZ looking at unconventional tools to support economy, but Govt has come to the party.

The Federal Reserve's rate cut this week was followed by falling share prices on the New York Stock Exchange. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Economy's immune system struggling to combat virus

6 Mar, 2020 5:10am
6 minutes to read

A world loaded with debt is in poor shape to fend off this latest shock.

Overseas workers play a big role in industries such as agriculture. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Revealed: Migrants now make up 6% of NZ's workforce: Here's the impact

28 Feb, 2020 5:42pm
5 minutes to read

Brian Fallow: Visa-holders may be getting a raw deal — and so can NZ economy.

By at least one measure, inequality is higher than it was before the global financial crisis. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Numbers show no progress on income inequality

21 Feb, 2020 5:44pm
6 minutes to read

Incomes are up — despite Bridges' claims — but Govt's record on poverty is not so rosy.

Treasury Secretary Dr Caralee McLiesh and Finance Minister Grant Robertson at Parliament's finance and expenditure committee this week. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Checking on the anti-virals

14 Feb, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Reserve Bank has limited tools to counter coronavirus, but Govt is better placed.

It's hard enough to estimate the virus outbreak's human toll, let alone the financial cost. Photo / AP

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Counting the cost of coronavirus

7 Feb, 2020 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Impact on the NZ economy could range from relatively minor to very nasty indeed.

One household in three are renters. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: NZ in 2020 - A nation divided by housing

31 Jan, 2020 5:00am
7 minutes to read

Rising rents a burden for tenants — and taxpayers too.

In fast-growing cities like Auckland, debt makes it difficult for the council to fund the infrastructure for new housing. Photo / Dean Purcell

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Building more houses - it's one step forward ...

23 Jan, 2020 5:38pm
6 minutes to read

Law could ease housing crisis, but Productivity Commission has few ideas for change.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. The Reserve Bank's rate cuts will make themselves felt this year. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Business confidence - glum today, cheerful tomorrow

17 Jan, 2020 5:38pm
6 minutes to read

Despite latest survey of business confidence, there are good reasons for optimism in 2020.

Grant Robertson can expect another standing ovation next Budget day. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Stand by for Budget goodies

13 Dec, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Latest update shows Finance Minister won't need to scrimp and save next May.

Raising more bank equity is like taking out insurance - with the cost split between borrowers, depositors and shareholders. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Putting the squeeze on credit

6 Dec, 2019 5:01am
6 minutes to read

Despite concessions, RBNZ moves likely to make it tougher for small firms to get a loan.

Denmark offers more income security and job flexibility than NZ - and has much higher productivity. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Want to improve productivity? Try some Danish

29 Nov, 2019 5:43pm
6 minutes to read

More secure incomes could encourage people to switch jobs and embrace change.

In much of the country house prices are already so high they are practically snow-capped. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Reserve Bank revs up house prices

22 Nov, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Interest rates fall, spending rises — and so do our debts.

The Tiwai Point aluminium smelter. Photo / Supplied

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Don't write off Tiwai Point

15 Nov, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Shutdown wouldn't help the environment or NZ's trade balance.

Reserve Bank of NZ Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Don't reach for the knife, RBNZ

8 Nov, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Reserve Bank has two targets — jobs and prices. Neither is crying out for another OCR cut.

There is no way New Zealand can meet its climate goals without more forestry. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Trees, yes — but not too many

2 Nov, 2019 5:48pm
6 minutes to read

Planting is needed to absorb carbon dioxide, but ETS must strike a balance.

NZ shouldn't rely too much on forestry to meet emissions targets, Simon Upton has warned. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Glimmers of hope on climate

24 Oct, 2019 5:50pm
6 minutes to read

National and farmers' group suggest progress is possible on cutting greenhouse emissions.

Can taxpayer funding grow more success stories, like billion-dollar plus A2 Milk. Photo / Supplied

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Giving new ventures a leg up

17 Oct, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Is planned $300m Venture Capital Fund the best way to give start-ups a boost?

Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Robertson clinging to his precious surplus

10 Oct, 2019 6:02pm
6 minutes to read

Finance Minister shows no sign of opening Government coffers to rev up the economy.

Of the OECD's 36 members, only Mexico and Greece have lower levels of productivity and even weaker productivity growth than us. Photos / AP / File / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Gloomy mood today, grim news tomorrow?

4 Oct, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Fewer businesses are planning to invest, and that's a worrying sign for future growth.

Labour campaigns against 2010's GST rise to 15 per cent. Cutting that rate could help the economy. Photo / Supplied

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Need a boost? Try cutting GST

27 Sep, 2019 5:40pm
6 minutes to read

Trimming the tax could be a quick way to give the economy a lift if things get ugly.

If NZ trims emissions, how do we make sure they don't increase somewhere else? Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Carbon cuts could be lost in the wind

19 Sep, 2019 5:45pm
7 minutes to read

If NZ trims emissions, how do we make sure they don't increase somewhere else?

New Zealand's exports are largely bulk commodities, with little value added. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: For trade, those were our best of times

12 Sep, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Even when the trends are in our favour, NZ keeps running up giant deficits.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Orr running low on rate-cut ammo

6 Sep, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: There comes a time when a lower OCR no longer achieves the desired result.

National's Simon Bridges (left) and finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith - 'reverting to neoliberal type'. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: It's the 1980s all over again with National

29 Aug, 2019 6:15pm
6 minutes to read

National's economic plan suggests it learnt nothing from losing last election.

First-home buyers are often borrowing many times their annual income. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: First-home buyers up to their nostrils in debt

22 Aug, 2019 6:30pm
7 minutes to read

First-home buyers are often borrowing many times their annual income.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Economic failure is food for political extremists

15 Aug, 2019 6:27pm
5 minutes to read

Inequality and stagnant incomes encourage rise of elected demagogues.

BUSINESS

Comment: Reserve Bank's big OCR cut misses the mark

8 Aug, 2019 6:31pm
6 minutes to read

Reserve Bank's surprise move unlikely to rev up investment or consumer spending.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Wellbeing approach, meet prudence

2 Aug, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Spending limits hamper Government's ability to achieve its social goals.

Reform will have to weigh up the need to generate power - and cut carbon emissions - against protecting natural resources such as rivers. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: RMA revamp a balancing act

25 Jul, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Challenging task in assessing an array of competing economic and environmental targets.

Pastoral farming is responsible for more than 40 per cent of NZ's export income. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Emissions plan a step in the right direction

19 Jul, 2019 5:43pm
5 minutes to read

Bid to trim agriculture's greenhouse gas output may not be perfect — but it's a start.

Dairy farms account for two-thirds of the agriculture sector's debt. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Living in fear of Farmageddon

12 Jul, 2019 5:55pm
6 minutes to read

Interest rates are only one of the risks farmers face.

The Milldale project north of Auckland (pictured in 2018) could be a model for financing development without councils taking on more debt. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Keeping the council coffers full

5 Jul, 2019 5:52pm
6 minutes to read

Comment: Funding for local government needs to be bolstered by additional revenue streams.

In China credit growth has been exceptionally fast. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: NZ could feel spillover of global slowdown

28 Jun, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Global concerns loomed large in the easing bias the Reserve Bank signalled this week.

Taxes, interest rates and housing crisis all have part to play in households owing most since start of millennium. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Kiwis up to nostrils in debt - and we're lying low in the water

21 Jun, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Households owe most since start of millennium.

New Zealand suffers from capital shallowness: the capital-labour ratio is low. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: NZ struggles to stay a straggler

13 Jun, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Just how big and stubborn a productivity problem NZ has is laid out in a new paper.

Grant Robertson has already boosted social security and welfare spending. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Borrow & spend? Here's why not

7 Jun, 2019 5:22am
6 minutes to read

Comment: There is good reason for the Government needs keep its fiscal powder dry.