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Latest FromBrian Fallow

Grant Robertson can expect another standing ovation next Budget day. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Stand by for Budget goodies

13 Dec, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Latest update shows Finance Minister won't need to scrimp and save next May.

Raising more bank equity is like taking out insurance - with the cost split between borrowers, depositors and shareholders. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Putting the squeeze on credit

6 Dec, 2019 5:01am
6 minutes to read

Despite concessions, RBNZ moves likely to make it tougher for small firms to get a loan.

Denmark offers more income security and job flexibility than NZ - and has much higher productivity. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Want to improve productivity? Try some Danish

29 Nov, 2019 5:43pm
6 minutes to read

More secure incomes could encourage people to switch jobs and embrace change.

In much of the country house prices are already so high they are practically snow-capped. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Reserve Bank revs up house prices

22 Nov, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Interest rates fall, spending rises — and so do our debts.

The Tiwai Point aluminium smelter. Photo / Supplied

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Don't write off Tiwai Point

15 Nov, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Shutdown wouldn't help the environment or NZ's trade balance.

Reserve Bank of NZ Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Don't reach for the knife, RBNZ

8 Nov, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Reserve Bank has two targets — jobs and prices. Neither is crying out for another OCR cut.

There is no way New Zealand can meet its climate goals without more forestry. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Trees, yes — but not too many

2 Nov, 2019 5:48pm
6 minutes to read

Planting is needed to absorb carbon dioxide, but ETS must strike a balance.

NZ shouldn't rely too much on forestry to meet emissions targets, Simon Upton has warned. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Glimmers of hope on climate

24 Oct, 2019 5:50pm
6 minutes to read

National and farmers' group suggest progress is possible on cutting greenhouse emissions.

Can taxpayer funding grow more success stories, like billion-dollar plus A2 Milk. Photo / Supplied

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Giving new ventures a leg up

17 Oct, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Is planned $300m Venture Capital Fund the best way to give start-ups a boost?

Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Robertson clinging to his precious surplus

11 Oct, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Finance Minister shows no sign of opening Government coffers to rev up the economy.

Of the OECD's 36 members, only Mexico and Greece have lower levels of productivity and even weaker productivity growth than us. Photos / AP / File / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Gloomy mood today, grim news tomorrow?

4 Oct, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Fewer businesses are planning to invest, and that's a worrying sign for future growth.

Labour campaigns against 2010's GST rise to 15 per cent. Cutting that rate could help the economy. Photo / Supplied

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Need a boost? Try cutting GST

27 Sep, 2019 5:40pm
6 minutes to read

Trimming the tax could be a quick way to give the economy a lift if things get ugly.

If NZ trims emissions, how do we make sure they don't increase somewhere else? Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Carbon cuts could be lost in the wind

19 Sep, 2019 5:45pm
7 minutes to read

If NZ trims emissions, how do we make sure they don't increase somewhere else?

New Zealand's exports are largely bulk commodities, with little value added. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: For trade, those were our best of times

12 Sep, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Even when the trends are in our favour, NZ keeps running up giant deficits.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Orr running low on rate-cut ammo

6 Sep, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: There comes a time when a lower OCR no longer achieves the desired result.

National's Simon Bridges (left) and finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith - 'reverting to neoliberal type'. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: It's the 1980s all over again with National

29 Aug, 2019 6:15pm
6 minutes to read

National's economic plan suggests it learnt nothing from losing last election.

First-home buyers are often borrowing many times their annual income. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: First-home buyers up to their nostrils in debt

22 Aug, 2019 6:30pm
7 minutes to read

First-home buyers are often borrowing many times their annual income.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Economic failure is food for political extremists

15 Aug, 2019 6:27pm
5 minutes to read

Inequality and stagnant incomes encourage rise of elected demagogues.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Comment: Reserve Bank's big OCR cut misses the mark

8 Aug, 2019 6:31pm
6 minutes to read

Reserve Bank's surprise move unlikely to rev up investment or consumer spending.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Wellbeing approach, meet prudence

2 Aug, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Spending limits hamper Government's ability to achieve its social goals.

Reform will have to weigh up the need to generate power - and cut carbon emissions - against protecting natural resources such as rivers. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: RMA revamp a balancing act

25 Jul, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Challenging task in assessing an array of competing economic and environmental targets.

Pastoral farming is responsible for more than 40 per cent of NZ's export income. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Emissions plan a step in the right direction

19 Jul, 2019 5:43pm
5 minutes to read

Bid to trim agriculture's greenhouse gas output may not be perfect — but it's a start.

Dairy farms account for two-thirds of the agriculture sector's debt. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Living in fear of Farmageddon

12 Jul, 2019 5:55pm
6 minutes to read

Interest rates are only one of the risks farmers face.

The Milldale project north of Auckland (pictured in 2018) could be a model for financing development without councils taking on more debt. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Keeping the council coffers full

5 Jul, 2019 5:52pm
6 minutes to read

Comment: Funding for local government needs to be bolstered by additional revenue streams.

In China credit growth has been exceptionally fast. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: NZ could feel spillover of global slowdown

28 Jun, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Global concerns loomed large in the easing bias the Reserve Bank signalled this week.

Taxes, interest rates and housing crisis all have part to play in households owing most since start of millennium. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Kiwis up to nostrils in debt - and we're lying low in the water

21 Jun, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Households owe most since start of millennium.

New Zealand suffers from capital shallowness: the capital-labour ratio is low. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: NZ struggles to stay a straggler

13 Jun, 2019 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Just how big and stubborn a productivity problem NZ has is laid out in a new paper.

Grant Robertson has already boosted social security and welfare spending. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Borrow & spend? Here's why not

7 Jun, 2019 5:22am
6 minutes to read

Comment: There is good reason for the Government needs keep its fiscal powder dry.

It will take several more Budgets to decide if changes are more than just presentation. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Comment: Is Budget 2019 the transformation NZ was sold?

30 May, 2019 6:44pm
5 minutes to read

It will take several more Budgets to decide if changes are more than just presentation.

A robot barkeeper dispenses drinks in London.Photo / AP

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Looking for an alternative to the jobs apocalypse

24 May, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

The robots may be coming, but that doesn't have to mean mass unemployment.

Auckland students demonstrate in favour of action on climate change.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Zero Carbon Bill in the crossfire

16 May, 2019 7:00pm
7 minutes to read

Premature alarm and misplaced scorn have greeted the Zero Carbon Bill.

BUSINESS

Fallow: Why Reserve Bank got its big rate cut wrong

9 May, 2019 6:42pm
6 minutes to read

COMMENT: Picture of slowing growth isn't as clear as the Reserve Bank seems to believe.

Numbers suggest labour market remains tight, but something is keeping pay rises in check. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Still waiting for wage growth

3 May, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Numbers suggest labour market remains tight, but something is keeping pay rises in check.

Zoning changes are another way to encourage landowners to develop. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Taking aim at the land bankers

26 Apr, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Government is still keen to look at ways of taxing vacant land.

The tax system helps explain why New Zealand has such a high employment rate. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Govt's CGT decision dodges a bullet

18 Apr, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Our productivity performance is already bad enough.

Phil Twyford wants a new authority to 'cut through the red tape'. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Quick fix is no fix for our failing cities

12 Apr, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Councils say Govt's planned Development Authority is no substitute for reforming RMA.

Latest figures reveal the Government has a bigger task ahead of it than previously believed. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Child-poverty targets just got tougher to reach

5 Apr, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Latest figures reveal the Govt has a bigger task ahead of it than previously believed.

Even long-lived trees don't go on forever. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: No hiding in the forests with climate change

29 Mar, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: More trees can only buy us time — the real need is to cut emissions.

Florence Patel-Gaunt, of Havelock North Primary School, makes her point at last week's climate strike. Photo, Paul Taylor.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Climate change kids are all right

22 Mar, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Schoolchildren see the need to curb emissions - so why don't the grown-ups?

Such low rates don't look sustainable in the long term, says RBNZ governor Adrian Orr. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Why low rates don't mean we should borrow more

15 Mar, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Interest rates are super-low and display little sign of rising soon.

Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Comment: Don't rush PGF in the regions

8 Mar, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: PGF is a good idea for New Zealand — too good to be botched by poor execution.

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has noted that internationally banks have tended to privatise their gains but socialise the losses. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Weighing the cost of stronger banks

1 Mar, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Reserve Bank's plans are like insurance — it's welcome when things go wrong.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: CGT could worsen NZ's economic problems

22 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

CGT on productive enterprises is no way to help Kiwi businesses become more productive.

Almost 71 per cent of working-age Kiwis are in the labour force - a high rate by world standards. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Staff wanted, so where are the pay rises?

15 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Reserve Bank must consider employment as well as inflation.

Ex-PM Jim Bolger led the pay study. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Give fair pay a go

8 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Too often, workers are caught in a race to the bottom.

Report suggests New Zealand's life insurance industry not ready for DNA challenge. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Can you trust insurers with your genes?

1 Feb, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Report suggests industry not ready for DNA challenge.

Richest NZ households have more assets, but poorest have been left behind. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

NZ's wealth gap: It's have-mores v have-nots

25 Jan, 2019 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Richest NZ households have more assets, but poorest have been left behind.

Sir Michael Cullen's group appears to be keen on taxing a wider range of capital gains. Photo / Mark Mitchell

BUSINESS

Comment: Tax focus puts growth at risk

18 Jan, 2019 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Why would Working Group take aim at capital gains, when more capital is what NZ needs?

Vote to get out of the EU has left UK facing calamity whatever direction it chooses. Photo / Getty Images

BUSINESS

Britain's three Brexit choices — all of them bad

14 Dec, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Vote to get out of the EU has left UK facing calamity whatever direction it chooses.

James Shaw expects the new fund to be an active investor. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Investing in the climate

7 Dec, 2018 5:00am
5 minutes to read

Comment: Govt's $100m green investment fund has a key focus: Cutting emissions.

Migration is still high, and the building industry is having a hard time meeting demand. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Don't ease up on LVR restrictions

23 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: Let's remember just how brutal house price inflation has been and for how long.

Who pays for the infrastructure for new homes? That's one of the questions a local body review is grappling with. Photo / Jason Oxenham

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Easing the ratepayers' burden

16 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Is there a better way of paying for the things local government provides?

Retail sales - up 5.1 per cent on September last year - are among the buoyant statistics. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Sunny numbers, cloudy outlook

9 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: Statistics are strong, but risks haven't vanished.

Wild weather and floods will only add to the rising cost of insurance. Photo / Wanganui Chronicle

BUSINESS

The real cost of living on NZ Super

2 Nov, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

For superannuitants, rates and insurance are pushing up the cost of living.

Kiwis spend more than we earn, and borrow to make up the difference. Photo / 123RF

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: No time for spend and hope

26 Oct, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Global debt levels are at all-time highs, limiting our options if growth stalls.

The jury is out on the impact of rising fuel costs - and future interest rates. Photo / File

BUSINESS

Comment: How petrol prices will hit home

19 Oct, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: The jury is out on the impact of rising fuel costs — and future interest rates.

Fossil fuel buyers need to get used to the idea that prices will keep on rising. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Comment: What's wrong with petrol prices? They're too low

11 Oct, 2018 7:00pm
5 minutes to read

Fossil fuel buyers should get used to the idea that prices will rise, writes Brian Fallow.

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Is growth really running out of puff?

5 Oct, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

The latest business survey was downbeat again, but does that tell the whole story?

It's the welfare system, not tax, that is crucial in making incomes more level. Photo / NZME file

BUSINESS

Brian Fallow: Inequality a tough target for Cullen tax review

28 Sep, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

It's the welfare system - not tax changes - that can do most to make incomes more equal.

Proposals would tax gains on property sales, but not the family home. Photo / Bloomberg

BUSINESS

Comment: Tax review redefines 'income'

21 Sep, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

Comment: Wider view is welcome — but only goes so far.

Don't mess with success is the Republicans' message for the November elections. Photo / AP

BUSINESS

US economy v NZ - why the winner isn't who you think

14 Sep, 2018 5:00am
6 minutes to read

If you think the US economy is roaring away while NZ slumps - better think again.

Methane from livestock accounts for 44 per cent of NZ's climate-change emissions. Photo / NZME file

BUSINESS

Comment: Fighting climate change on the farm

6 Sep, 2018 12:00pm
5 minutes to read

The signs are that methane from livestock will be treated differently to CO2 emissions.