Comings and goings are certain, but as the All Blacks attempt to deliver consistency for the first time in this year’s Rugby Championship, changes are likely to be forced rather than tactically driven for the rematch with the Wallabies in Perth.
After enduring a lengthy casualty ward that included injuries to Beauden Barrett, Ethan de Groot, Caleb Clarke and Tupou Vaa’i as they locked away the Bledisloe Cup at Eden Park, the All Blacks arrived in Western Australia confident they can cover influential absences while regaining some battered bodies.
Barrett (AC shoulder injury) and de Groot (concussion) did not travel this week and Clarke appears doubtful to maintain his place on the left edge after reinjuring his ankle. The All Blacks could, though, retain captain Scott Barrett, while fellow lock Tupou Vaa’i has shaken off a blow to his knee.
“We’re pretty positive around that,” All Blacks assistant coach Jason Holland told the Herald in Perth of the team’s health status. “Scott was out last week. He’s progressing nicely but [has] still got a couple of things to get past. Tupou had a niggly knee but he trained fine today.
“There’s a little bit to get through with Caleb. He trained today with a few restrictions on what he did,” Holland said.
“We haven’t had any scan results back for Beauden yet but we’re still pretty hopeful it’s a two- to three-week injury and he’ll be right to go north.”
Damian McKenzie is set to assume the playmaking reins from Beauden Barrett after emerging from the bench to replace him late in the first half of last week’s victory against the Wallabies.
McKenzie savoured the first eight tests as Scott Robertson’s first-choice playmaker last year but after falling behind Barrett, he has since started once in the No 10 jersey – in the third test against France in Hamilton – this season.
The Chiefs pivot brings a different style to Barrett. He will challenge the line more and seek to ignite his passing threat, but it’s his ability to manage and dictate a game that’s been widely questioned at this level.
“He’s in a really good space,” Holland said of McKenzie. “As far as the way we play, it won’t change much.
“Damian will take every opportunity to have a crack and take the line on a little bit. With the way Aussie defend, being a bit softer on the edges to what South Africa were, we need to be at them and not passing early so that will be an advantage.
“Damian and Ruben [Love] have led the team really well this week. They’re working well together.
“Damian is excited. He’s only had one start at 10. He had heaps last year. He’s loving the idea of us having the ball for a long time and not giving it away.”
Love has his supporters but after three tests – none of which have been at first five-eighths – he remains raw at test level. This year, he’s started one test from fullback in Hamilton, with McKenzie at No 10, before coming off the bench on the wing as the Boks ran rampant in Wellington.
Holland, though, was impressed by Love’s five starts at No 10 for the Hurricanes this year. Those performances are enough to convince the All Blacks he’s ready to run the cutter.
“How quickly he matured through the Hurricanes’ season was a real indicator. He came in after Brett Cameron was injured and he bosses that whole environment,” Holland said.
“He’s come in and had to bide his time. It’s frustrating for a young fella when you don’t get a crack. He got a little bit of time on the wing but he’s been running the opposition [at training] for eight weeks and doing a really good job of it. He knows the way we want to play so we’re really confident in him.”
With Clarke likely to be ruled out after impressing in his return to the left wing, the All Blacks could inject Leicester Fainga’anuku for his first test since the 2023 World Cup quarter-final.
Rieko Ioane is another option after his switch back to the wing this year, but Fainga’anuku, despite playing in the midfield during his two-year stint in France, would be a more like-for-like power replacement from the edge.
“There’s a chance. He’s been training really well. We will get through a few things with injuries and see where we are at but he’s chomping at the bit and ready to go,” Holland said of Fainga’anuku.
The All Blacks were satisfied with their improvements under the high ball, where Clarke and Jordie Barrett were prominent, ball retention and early attacking impetus that stretched the Wallabies last week.
But so, too, were the All Blacks outmuscled at the breakdown too often. They also conceded gain-line metres that allowed the Wallabies to score easy points and one maul try needs swift attention.
There’s also no shying away from the All Blacks’ frustrating form line that reads win, loss, win, loss, win in the Rugby Championship.
After an underwhelming 50% record in this tournament last year too, it’s time for Scott Robertson’s All Blacks to break their inconsistent trend.
“There’s parts of our game we’re growing around our attack but we had a chat this morning around the mental side of it,” Holland said.
“Nobody ever switches off but it’s about being sharp around our mental preparation. We’ve won the first game and lost the second through this Rugby Championship so it’s a sharpener for us to understand what our mindset is. We have to go out and win the Bledisloe again. The boys have responded to that so hopefully that means we’re ready to go.”
In a significant boost to their physicality and experience, the Wallabies have regained powerhouse forwards Will Skelton and Rob Valetini.
There could be a change in the halves, too, with veteran halfbacks Jake Gordon and Nic White expected to return to seriously strengthen Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies as they seek to stop a 10-match losing run against the All Blacks.
Waratahs playmaker Tane Edmed, who spent one season with North Harbour last year, is expected to start at first-five for the Wallabies with James O’Connor dropping to the bench.
“I don’t think it changes the way they play, but there’s two bigger bodies with the boys up front. Their carry threat and Skelton, anything around maul defence, he did that really well against the [British and Irish] Lions. They give them another level of physicality and size,” Holland said.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if Nic White plays. Nic and Jake Gordon are both outstanding with their box-kicking. We did a pretty good job against that last weekend but we expect that to come again.
“And if Nic White is there, we will have to be smart around the niggle. Him and Skelton, the Aussies grow behind them ... There will be no backward steps but we have to be smart around that.”
Tamaiti Williams, Codie Taylor, Tyrel Lomax, Scott Barrett, Tupou Vaa’i’, Simon Parker, Ardie Savea, Wallace Sititi, Cam Roigard, Damian McKenzie, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Jordie Barrett, Billy Proctor, Leroy Carter, Will Jordan
Reserves: George Bower, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Fletcher Newell, Patrick Tuipulotu, Peter Lakai, Cortez Ratima, Quinn Tupaea, Ruben Love
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.