Injuries will deny the All Blacks the luxury of solely sticking to a winning team as they seek to strike a decisive blow with successive victories against the old foe.
But after watching Springboks counterpart Rassie Erasmus turn heads with his bold selections, All Blacks coach Scott Robertson could yet pull a surprise or two of his own for the rematch in Wellington.
Robertson will be forced to make changes at hooker, where Samisoni Taukei’aho will replace Codie Taylor following his head knock and promote Brodie McAlister to the bench for his second test, and on the right wing, after Emoni Narawa suffered fractured ribs at Eden Park.
Recalling Sevu Reece is an option but he is instead expected to debut for Southland in the NPC after he was dropped from the All Blacks’ starting team last week.
Rieko Ioane could switch to the right edge to cover Narawa’s absence but the path of least disruption is to start as the All Blacks finished their breakthrough success against the Boks, with Will Jordan moving to No 14 and Damian McKenzie slotting in at fullback.
While Jordan remains the All Blacks’ first-choice fullback, he is no stranger to finishing on the edge after scoring the bulk of his 43 tries from 47 tests from the right wing – the latest of which came last week from a crafty lineout set play.
McKenzie, after replacing Narawa in the sixth minute at Eden Park, displayed his bravery by leading the All Blacks’ efforts to defuse the Boks’ high-ball barrage from the back field.
That was the second time this season McKenzie has been called on from the bench in the opening minutes after he replaced Reece in the first test of the year against France in Dunedin, with Jordan again switching to the wing.
McKenzie’s likely inclusion at fullback could pave the way for a rare opportunity from the bench for Ruben Love, too.
With four candidates for the left wing this week in Wellington, Robertson is spoiled for choice as he ponders his back-three options.
Ioane was on notice at Eden Park with his subdued switch from centre to wing this year yet to deliver definitive attacking rewards, although he pulled off a telling try-saving tackle on Springboks prop Ox Nche.
Caleb Clarke, the All Blacks’ best aerial exponent, is back in Robertson’s squad after recovering from his ankle injury and completing two outings for Auckland.
Leicester Fainga’anuku and rookie wing Leroy Carter are also pushing their respective cases, which could cajole Robertson into pulling the trigger on changing his left-edge finisher.
A bereavement in the Ioane family may also play a part in selection.
Clarke and Fainga’anuku both offer an enticing power element that could expose the much smaller Springboks midfield, after Erasmus ushered in seven starting changes – but Carter has been in the All Blacks squad from the outset of the Rugby Championship, having toured Argentina while awaiting his test debut.
Robertson has credited Carter, the former All Blacks Sevens representative nicknamed “Boomfa”, as the fastest man in New Zealand rugby. He certainly impressed as one of the form wings in Super Rugby Pacific this year.
While there will be a temptation to harness Clarke and Fainga’anuku, the latter said to be tipping the scales around 110kg after returning from France, this week could be the time to unleash nuggety Chiefs flier Carter in an attacking-minded move that would catch everyone by surprise.
With Fainga’anuku named on Tasman’s bench for their Ranfurly Shield challenge against Canterbury on Sunday, Carter is one step closer to his test debut in Wellington.
The changes may not end there, either.
The All Blacks have signalled Noah Hotham’s earlier-than-expected return from his ankle injury in a welcome reprieve after losing Cam Roigard and Cortez Ratima, sparking something of a halfback crisis.
Finlay Christie, the All Blacks’ fourth-choice halfback, stepped up at Eden Park with a performance largely dominated by box-kicking, while Kyle Preston debuted off the bench.
Hotham last played when he impressed off the bench in the third French test in Hamilton in mid-July but if he proves his fitness, the All Blacks could inject him straight into a starting return to embrace his greater attacking threat, with Christie reverting to the bench.
With the scrum a focal point of improvement after the All Blacks endured one embarrassing tighthead shunt, further tweaks could come in the front row, with first-choice tighthead prop Tyrel Lomax possibly promoted to start over Fletcher Newell, who could inject notable impact from the bench.
Other than Taukei’aho and Lomax, though, the All Blacks forward pack that met the Springboks’ vaunted physicality head-on through aggressive defence and breakdown pressure is expected to be retained, after Simon Parker impressed at blindside flanker and Tupou Vaa’i savoured his preferred locking role.
While Erasmus adopts radical changes in his quest to evoke a swift response in the rematch, Robertson will largely favour stability with the odd tweak and perhaps one surprise, as he attempts to lead a definitive momentum shift in rugby’s greatest rivalry.
15. Damian McKenzie, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Billy Proctor, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Leroy Carter/Caleb Clarke, 10. Beauden Barrett, 9. Noah Hotham, 8. Wallace Sititi, 7 .Ardie Savea, 6. Simon Parker, 5. Tupou Vaa’i, 4. Scott Barrett (c), 3. Tyrel Lomax, 2. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1. Ethan de Groot. Replacements: 16. Brodie McAlister, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Fabian Holland, 20. Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Ruben Love, 23. Quinn Tupaea.
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.