New Zealanders’ trust and confidence in police falling, people feel less safe after dark

Two-thirds of New Zealanders continue to have high trust and confidence in police but those levels have been falling – and continue to fall.

Most New Zealanders (69% in 2023) also feel safe in their neighborhoods after dark but this is also sliding (down from 70% in 2022 and 72% in 2021).

These are among several declining trends revealed in the police module, obtained by the Herald, in the latest NZ Crime and Victims Survey, which is being officially released today.

The trends have prompted Police Minister Mark Mitchell to trumpet the Government’s law and order agenda, including more police on the beat and tougher consequences for crime – though Ministry of Justice officials have questioned whether harsher penalties increase public confidence.

“This shows broadly why this Government is taking action to get on top of crime and assure New Zealanders that we have a solid plan in place to make them feel and be safer,” Mitchell said.

Police Commissioner Andrew Coster (left) and Police Minister Mark Mitchell. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The survey is based on interviews with thousands of New Zealanders aged 15 and over and is considered a more accurate picture of crime because it includes unreported incidents (only a quarter of all crime is reported to police), though the study excludes crimes against businesses.

It features the police module, which gauges public perceptions of police across a range of areas such as professionalism, crime prevention, community presence, satisfaction with police work, and how effectively police deal with serious crime.

The latest findings, covering the year to October 2023, show 67% of respondents had a high level of trust and confidence in police. This is down from 69% the previous year, and almost three-quarters (74%) the year before that (the module has only been running for three years).

It also showed a dropping trend in perceptions of police effectiveness. On whether police deal effectively with serious crimes, 71% agreed last year, down from 78% in 2021. The proportion of those who disagreed almost doubled over that period, from 8% to 14%.

Asked about whether police work in schools, businesses, families and communities prevents “a lot of crime”, the proportion who disagreed jumped from 11% in 2021 to 17% last year.

And only 59% said police had a suitable presence in the community, down from 62% the previous year. Police Commissioner Andrew Coster recently announced more police on the beat including 63 across Auckland, 17 in Wellington and 10 in Christchurch.

He has previously identified three reasons for declining trust and confidence in police (following last year’s module):

• the tail end of the country’s Covid response which he said was controversial with some communities
• the drop in public confidence in government institutions in general and policing in particular, both overseas and in New Zealand. “We haven’t had the same breaches of public trust here – but many people are influenced by these stories from overseas.”
• changes in some highly visible crime trends in New Zealand such as ram raids and inter-gang violence.

Those highly visible crimes are continuing (though ram raids peaked in August 2022), while fake news – a major concern in terms of potential damage to faith in public institutions – continues to rise.

The Government is in the process of finding 500 additional police officers by the end of next year, but has been battling the tide of officers moving to Australia.

Police are also dealing with more duties, including implementing some of the Government’s law and order agenda. This includes enforcing the ban of gang patches in public and the anti-consorting law, and dispersing gang members in public; justice officials warned there was no evidence these measures would work, and they could even worsen gang issues.

Coster recently announced a national gang unit with 25 to 30 staff, and up to seven staff in every police district across the country.

Trust and confidence in police remains high but has fallen in recent years. Photo / NZ Police Association

Mitchell, who in Opposition was critical of Coster, said there had been a shift in police since the Government took office just over six months ago.

“My expectation around policing of gang tangi and convoys is very clear, police have responded, and we’ve seen a substantive change with police taking back control and gangs no longer terrorising communities,” he said.

“We’re putting in place tougher consequences for serious repeat offenders, establishing a Young Serious Offenders category and youth military academies, and bringing back Three Strikes. We’re listening to Kiwis and taking actions that prioritise public safety and victims, ahead of offenders.”

Whether harsher penalties correlates with public safety and confidence in the justice system is questionable.

Justice Ministry officials have said that public confidence declined between 2003 and 2016, a time when imprisonment rates increased by 25%.

“The continued decline in public confidence in New Zealand’s justice system, despite increasing rates of imprisonment, suggest that harsher penalties for offences do not increase public confidence,” they said in the regulatory impact statement for Three Strikes 2.0.

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.