It has not happened to a first-term prime minister.
That doesn’t mean it won’t happen to Luxon, but if it does, things have to get a lot worse than they are now.
It became a familiar feature of the political landscape in Australia and Britain, where Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull were ousted in Australia by their own caucus, and similarly Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss in Britain.
In NZ, the messy leadership contests are traditionally held in Opposition, not while a party is in Government.
Other than Bolger, three other elected NZ prime ministers have departed early in the past 50 years, David Lange, John Key and Jacinda Ardern, but they were self-instigated resignations.
It could perhaps be argued that the Labour Caucus vote that precipitated David Lange’s resignation in 1989, the re-election of Roger Douglas to the Labour cabinet, was a de facto vote of no-confidence in Lange. But the Labour caucus was not given a clear forewarning that Lange would see it like that and resign.
The threshold for rolling a prime minister should be - and is - a lot higher than that of an opposition leader because its effects are disruptive on the operations of Government itself.
Because of that, the risks of it backfiring are higher.
It is seen as a Government caring more about itself than the citizens it is supposed to serve.
It could also undermine the very basis on which the Government was formed – to offer stability in the face of punishing economic headwinds.
There has to be a compelling reason. So has the threshold been met for Luxon?
Not yet. The polls point to a close result at next year’s election, but “might lose” is hardly a compelling reason to get rid of a Prime Minister.
Nor are annoying things such as inviting Taylor Swift to honeymoon in NZ or blathering on too much during media interviews.
National is in a grey zone at present, in which its polling is not dire enough to justify getting rid of a prime minister, but it is uncertain enough to warrant speculation about the leadership. And a lot of speculation can become destabilising.
Matthew Hooton’s Herald column on Friday, canvassing Luxon’s leadership failings, sparked such speculation.
Any crisis is some way off, if it comes at all.
Yesterday’s Curia Taxpayers’ Union poll had the left and right blocs virtually dead even.
Luxon’s net favourability in yesterday’s poll was minus 12%, the same as it was in July.
Bad favourability ratings are always interesting but not necessarily fatal. Anthony Albanese was re-elected in May with a net favourability rating of minus 10%. (He is now at plus 3%).
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer was elected last year with a net favourability of minus 9% (he is now at minus 40%). Germany’s Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is about minus 50%, and French President Emmanuel Macron is about minus 65%.
Luxon’s net favourability and National’s party vote polling probably need to be somewhere in the 20s before the panic sets in.
There is no consensus yet on whether Luxon could lead National to a second term. That seems largely dependent on how quickly economic conditions pick up. There is a consensus that if the economy picks up, National’s polling will pick up.
There is certainly no consensus on who would be best to replace Luxon if he vacated the leadership and that mitigates against a move against Luxon.
There has been plenty of pick and mix speculation about combinations of leader and deputy, including Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford, Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis and Simeon Brown, and Erica Stanford and Mark Mitchell.
If it were show business, Erica Stanford would be ahead, but it is politics, and Chris Bishop would appear to have greater political skills.
Speaking at his post-Cabinet press conference last night, Luxon claimed there were no cracks in his party.
“You’ve seen me come through politics, fix up the National Party, find a way to win an election, win an election, form a coalition, focus on the NZ people, get this show turned around so we can realise all the great potential that is in it.”
National Party coups have had mixed success. The most successful National coup in recent years was that of Don Brash against Bill English. It took National from near wipeout at the 2002 election under English to near victory under Brash in 2005.
Open criticism and speculation helped to destabilise Simon Bridges’ leadership in 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic. It led to a coup by Todd Muller with disastrous consequences for the party when he had a mental breakdown shortly afterwards.
But both occurred in Opposition, not Government, and the scar tissue from the 2020 coup is still too raw for there to be a repeat of that in Government.
Hooton, who was involved in both coups, made a good case last week for how Luxon should go, by way of a managed exit.
Whether he goes or should go is another matter altogether.
