Rotorua-Taupō Federated Farmers president Colin Guyton. Photo / NZME
While Taupō went long periods without rain throughout summer, including a 33-day dry spell, the odd downpour was enough to ensure local farmers can enter winter with some positivity.
However, steeply rising costs are removing a big chunk out of dairy farmers' record payout forecast.
Fonterra has foreshadowed a $9.30 to $9.90 payout for each kilogram of milk solids with a $9.60 mid-range. That could yet go higher for the next forecast in May before the final wrap-up - if dairy futures markets are any indication.
But the list is growing for increasing costs - interest rates, wages, fertiliser, agrichemicals, fuel, animal health, contracting and overall inflation.
Rotorua-Taupō Federated Farmers president Colin Guyton says costs are a big concern for local farmers.
"The fuel rises just mean everything goes up, everything we buy gets delivered so it affects you everywhere. At the moment, the payout is good so we can absorb those costs at the moment but farmers know those payouts never stay high forever. The costs may retreat, but at a slower rate than the payout, so that's where farmers have to be prepared."
In terms of the weather, Guyton says Taupō farmers should head into winter with some optimism.
"If you're living in a place where you have a winter, you tend to be a conservative farmer and prepare for when things do slow down. We're still dry, green but dry, so we still need a bit more rain. We're certainly not as dry as some parts of the country.
"Overall, we're looking okay, if we can get some good rain in May and get the grass growing we'll be close to getting in a reasonably good position heading into winter, for most people."
Guyton says it was a dry summer and a tough season to negotiate, but not as bad as it could have been.
"We've had a couple of reasonably big dumpings of rain, quite a long way apart, which was enough to keep us going. From what I'm seeing, cow conditions are looking pretty good heading into winter.
"The payout means farmers were in a position to keep feeding well when it was dry. I had to buy in maize silage, which I wouldn't normally do, to fill the gap from the lack of grass growth."
Another issue causing potential challenges for farmers is the freezing works being "under the pump" with staff off sick and having to isolate with Covid-19.
"They are a long way behind so some farms will get caught out with cows, that they should've culled, that they can't get rid of. I hear they're about a month behind so that will put a lot of pressure on some people because winter feed is premium feed and if you have to give that to animals that are actually past their prime, it's not ideal."
Meanwhile, Federated Farmers employment spokesperson Chris Lewis says the Government's announcement it will open up borders to an additional 1580 experienced primary sector workers is a shot in the arm for those struggling to recruit enough staff locally.
"They say good things take time, and Feds has been ratcheting up the pressure for this necessary step for many, many months.
"Let's hope the system is agile enough to get these people into New Zealand and out into workplaces by the time we need them - particularly for the super busy spring dairy calving season."
The new settings include an increase in the current border exception for assistant dairy farm managers, 2ICs, dairy herd managers and dairy farm assistants by 500 to a total of 800 for those earning at least the median wage plus $1 per hour (currently equates to $28 per hour).
"The federation's message to farmers is to take up these places," Lewis says.
"We know that with fuel and fertiliser price rises, concerns in some districts about supplementary feed, and other factors, there may be a temptation to try and struggle through with workforce gaps.
"But just remember the stress that puts on you and the rest of the team, the health and safety factors, and the difficulties of rostering to give people decent time off when your staff complement is deficient."