The scrum is expected to be the defining battleground in the semifinal between the Crusaders and Blues.
The Crusaders’ dominance is rooted in their set piece and maul, despite the loss of Tamaiti Williams.
Goalkicking could be decisive, with both teams having similar styles prioritising set piece dominance and discipline.
It’s not rugby’s sexiest selling point but the scrum could well be the defining battleground of this semifinal showdown.
While everyone’s attention was fixated on Will Jordan’s return from injury last week, Crusaders prop Fletcher Newell’s comeback proved far more influential in their destruction of theQueensland Reds.
Newell isn’t as adept with his ball skills or as mobile as other tightheads roaming the New Zealand ranks but he is a powerful, destructive scrummager. He and fellow All Blacks prop Tamaiti Williams went to work to chew up and spit out the Reds’ scrum.
That’s where the Crusaders’ dominance originated last weekend. True to tradition, the set piece and their maul are the heart of their mounting confidence.
Williams’ absence due to injury this week is a huge loss, having often played big minutes this season and been consistently among the Crusaders’ best.
On another arctic night in Christchurch, though, the Crusaders’ blueprint won’t change – with temperatures forecast to hit zero.
Confronting the All Blacks-laden front row sets the scene for a huge challenge for starting Blues props Joshua Fusitu’a and Marcel Renata.
But with former All Blacks scrum coach Greg Feek among his staff, Blues coach Vern Cotter is backing his big men to front.
Joshua Fusitu'a will be at the forefront of the Blues' encounter against the Crusaders. Photo / Photosport
“They’ll try [to dominate up front], but if you think that’s already a win to them, you may be surprised,” Cotter quipped. “Our boys are up for this. It will be a good contest.”
The lineout, where Scott Barrett and Codie Taylor should hand the Crusaders the edge, will be equally telling in defining this match.
Holding the nerve off the tee
Last time out in Christchurch, James O’Connor sank the Blues’ hopes of snatching victory with a final-play penalty.
The last two Blues’ trips to Christchurch under Cotter have, in fact, been decided by the barest of margins (three and two points).
Barrett is operating at 70% while Crusaders first five-eighths Rivez Reihana, who replaced the injured Taha Kemara (50%) for the back half of this season, sits at 66%. Replacement kickers O’Connor (76%) and Harry Plummer (60%) wait on the bench.
In an expected tight, tense slugfest, goalkicking could well prove decisive.
Chance your arm. Be brave, be bold
Set-piece dominance, field position, collisions, discipline, defence and accuracy will be priorities for both teams. In many respects, the Crusaders and Blues adopt similar styles.
We are far more likely to witness maul tries and close-range barge-overs than breathtaking, sweeping, length-of-the-field movements.
Finals footy is completely removed from the attacking, expansive approach teams embraced at the start of the season, with the late summer sun on their backs.
Whether it’s Jordan, Beauden Barrett, Mark Tele’a or Sevu Reece, one moment of brilliance could be enough to snatch the result.
Will Jordan will again be key for the Crusaders. Photo / Photosport
Who will be willing to break the conservative deadlock and have a crack?
Tactical kicking and close-quarter exchanges will dominate this contest but, as Cotter suggests, at some stage someone will throw off the shackles.
“It won’t always be that,” Cotter said. “There will be periods where it’s a game of chess and there will be periods when it opens up. It will be the timing in and around that, when you feel it’s right to go. That’s the key to the knockout games.”
Individual match-ups
Patrick Tuipulotu against Scott Barrett. Ethan Blackadder and Dalton Papali’i. There are any number of individual battles within the battle to spark interest.
The halves pairings, with Noah Hotham’s running ability posing more threat than Finlay Christie, and Beauden Barrett’s experience casting a shadow over Rivez Reihana, balance each other out.
If there’s one tussle that encapsulates this rivalry, though, it’s the collision of the in-form No 8s, Hoskins Sotutu and Christian Lio-Willie.
Hoskins Sotutu has been in solid form for the Blues. Photo / Photosport
With the game likely to be on the line in the final quarter, the respective benches will also be in the spotlight.
Last week, the Blues showed poise and composure to come back from a 13-point second-half deficit to surge over the top of the Chiefs – but they won’t want to confront that scenario again.
“It was trusting and staying calm,” Blues captain Tuipulotu said of the added-time upset in Hamilton. “Our leaders like Beauden and Rieko [Ioane] played a big part. Dalton had a massive defensive effort. We’ve been searching for that sort of dominance in the close quarters, the five metres out, the whole year so it was pleasing to do that as a collective.”
