There was once a time – not so long ago, either – when the All Blacks viewed Scotland and other home unions as a chance to rest and rotate en masse.
Sandwiched between Ireland in Chicago last week and England at Twickenham next week, Scotland at Murrayfield was always the delicate juncture at which All Blacks coach Scott Robertson would pause to assess whether to usher in brave, calculated selection risks.
The 2005 All Blacks, led by Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith, used their full squad in their first two tests en route to New Zealand’s second successful Grand Slam tour. That included fielding two completely different starting XVs, with Tana Umaga captaining the first squad against Wales and a fresh-faced Richie McCaw leading the All Blacks the following week in Dublin. Both All Blacks teams scored over 40 points, while conceding one try.
The highly competitive test rugby landscape has drastically evolved in the 20 years since that tour. Ireland savouring an extended period as world No 1 prior to the 2023 World Cup is testament to the Northern Hemisphere’s vastly altered competitiveness.
Scotland have notably improved, too. Gregor Townsend’s side pushed the All Blacks to the brink in their last visit to Murrayfield three years ago and last July contributed eight players to the British and Irish Lions tour to earn due respect this weekend.
No one, therefore, expects Robertson to turn back the clock and rest the bulk of his squad that surged over the top of Ireland last week, but the premise of calculated rotation remains pertinent.
While the All Blacks had almost one month between their final Rugby Championship match and victory last week in Chicago, the risk and reward tradeoff of selection changes could allow some veterans to freshen up before confronting England, widely considered the toughest test of this tour, next week.
Promoting fringe players also carries the benefit of engaging the full squad to boost morale, rather than leaving many as tackle bag holders throughout the tour.
The All Blacks will, of course, be forced into changes with Jordie Barrett returning home to recover from his ankle and knee injuries and captain Scott Barrett ruled out this week while a nasty cut on his knee heals.
Ardie Savea will assume the captaincy, with Quinn Tupaea and Leicester Fainga’anuku combining in the power-packed midfield. Josh Lord will start in the second row alongside Fabian Holland, and Sam Darry is expected to come on to the bench.
Robertson’s messaging strongly suggests changes elsewhere will be minimal, though.
Internally, the All Blacks have spoken about the importance of preserving their 120-year, 32-test unbeaten record against Scotland. Publicly, Robertson has showered Scotland with compliments and acknowledged the significance of Murrayfield celebrating 100 years of rugby.
Context is also important.
To this point, Robertson’s tenure lacks a notable trophy, a statement series success, to signal definitive progress.
Attaining the first Grand Slam in 15 years, therefore, assumes greater significance which heightens pressure to perform each week.
A maiden loss to Scotland, while seemingly unlikely, would be another black eye following the first loss in Argentina and the All Blacks’ heaviest defeat in history against the Springboks in Wellington earlier this year.
Set against that backdrop, Robertson is expected to select his strongest available team.
There could, though, be room for the odd tweak.
Blindside flanker may be top of those considerations after a quiet outing from Simon Parker in Chicago.
Parker wasn’t helped by his departure for a first-half head injury assessment but after delivering two carries for zero metres and seven tackles with two misses in a heavily disrupted 50 minutes against Ireland, the All Blacks could opt to tweak their loose forward trio.
Wallace Sititi impressed off the bench last week with his dynamic ball carrying helping spark the All Blacks’ three-try last-quarter blitz.
Sititi’s favoured position is No 8, but last season, in his rookie test campaign that propelled him to World Rugby breakthrough player of the year, he largely started at blindside.
The All Blacks may, however, be reluctant to compromise their renewed impact from the bench.
Luke Jacobson is yet to be sighted for the All Blacks this year after injury prevented him from featuring in the third test against France in July. As far as like-for-like replacements go, Jacobson’s defensive presence could perform a similar role to Chiefs teammate Parker.
Scotland kick less than their Irish and English counterparts, which may see the All Blacks ponder change on the right wing, too.
Leroy Carter has impressed on the edge in his debut test season and could benefit from further game time which may confine Rieko Ioane or Billy Proctor’s returns to the bench.
Alternatively, the All Blacks could move Will Jordan to the right wing and reward Damian McKenzie with another start at fullback after his livewire injection in Chicago.
Before Scott Barrett’s injury, the All Blacks may have viewed this test as a chance to spell Codie Taylor by starting Samisoni Taukei’aho, with George Bell coming onto the bench.
But having lost Barrett’s experienced lineout calling for Scotland, the All Blacks may now be reluctant to further expose their valued lineout platform.
Minor tweaks are possible but as he prioritises the quest for the Grand Slam, Robertson is unlikely to adopt radical rotation in Edinburgh.
Possible All Blacks team:
Will Jordan, Leroy Carter, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Quinn Tupaea, Caleb Clarke, Beauden Barrett, Cam Roigard, Peter Lakai, Ardie Savea (c), Simon Parker, Fabian Holland, Josh Lord, Fletcher Newell, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot.
Reserves: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Pasilio Tosi, Sam Darry, Wallace Sititi, Cortez Ratima, Rieko Ioane/Billy Proctor, Damian McKenzie
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.