The All Blacks face Fiji in San Diego on Saturday afternoon
Billy Proctor has been handed his first test start in the No 13 jersey
Incumbent Rieko Ioane’s lack of distribution was exposed in the All Blacks’ 2-0 series win over England
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.
OPINION
The most prescient lesson for the new All Blacks coaching group to come out of the series againstEngland was the realisation that they have entered a clearly defined universe where teams must decide on whether they want to prevail on the strength of their attack or the efficacy of their defence.
Modern test rugby is in fact that binary and head coach Scott Robertson has never been in doubt that his ambition is to build an All Blacks team that possesses an attacking portfolio equal or superior to any defensive system it encounters.
That’s the plan at least, but the series against England highlighted how hard it is to build a functioning attack in a universe where the laws and the interpretations of the laws are tipped in favour of those who want to pursue the defensive route.
For attacking rugby to work, it needs multiple facets to be on point and in no particular order that means a solid scrum, functioning lineout, aggressive cleanout, dynamic ball-carrying and a varied and accurate kicking game.
But even should the All Blacks start to get all these components right – which they didn’t manage in either Dunedin or Auckland – the series against England specifically demonstrated that the key to any attack structure in the current climate sits with the decision-making and distribution prowess of whoever is playing at centre.
The pressure point in test rugby is that area around the centre. That’s the zone that defensively minded teams flood and they do so to try to stop the ball being transferred one pass wider.
It’s a complex zone where whoever is wearing the No 13 jersey has endless split-second decisions to make, needs to have an innate ability to assess where the attacking opportunity may exist and have the requisite skillset to deliver the accuracy of execution the situation needs, whether it’s pass, kick or run.
Rieko Ioane has been the All Blacks’ preferred centre since 2021 and continues to be so under Robertson.
But for all that Ioane brings a powerful running game and a much-improved defensive offering, the England series highlighted his propensity to rely on his speed and size under pressure and to default to trying to blast his way through the heavy traffic.
He wears 13, but has the natural instincts of a wing and twice there were glaring examples of when the All Blacks needed him to pass but he opted to run, and the question has arisen whether Ioane has the all-round skillset that Robertson’s attack vision needs.
If there is a direct criticism to be made of Ioane, it is that he is not bringing enough variety to his decision-making and that he has not fully embraced the value of timing, depth and speed and length of pass as valid means to stress and break a defence.
All Black Billy Proctor will make his test debut this week. Photo / Photosport
Hence, the selection of Billy Proctor at centre for the test against Fiji is potentially one that may have significant longer-term ramifications on how the All Blacks want to set up their midfield in 2024.
Proctor was Super Rugby Pacific’s most effective centre – showing an ability to make astute decisions about when to pass, when to run and when to kick and he was also supremely good at applying pressure with his defensive reading.
He not only knew what to do in Super Rugby, but mostly he demonstrated he knew how to do it too and there was an accuracy about his passing and a cleverness about his short kicking game.
Pass and catch looks like his natural game and his first instinct is to look up and assess what’s happening, rather than tuck the ball under his arm and charge.
From what he’s shown in Super Rugby, he looks to be the best-equipped centre New Zealand has to handle the complex requirements of the role.
If the All Blacks are to thrive in this defensively dominated universe, the evidence to date suggests they need a distributor and ball-player at centre, rather than an out-and-out strike runner and their choice is to try to grow the skillset of Ioane or build the experience of Proctor.
And in all probability, Robertson will look to do both throughout 2024 and potentially there could be a changing of the guard later in the year or sometime next when the All Blacks make an unequivocal commitment to the fact that they need a facilitator and not a finisher at centre.
They are not there yet - or at least they remain open-minded about who the right player is to navigate the heavy traffic that comes with the defensive systems the All Blacks face, and play their way through it to set up a back three that has all the finishing power any team is ever going to need.
