What the All Blacks need to do to come away with a win in South Africa this weekend. NZ Herald's Liam Napier and Newstalk ZB's D'Arcy Waldegrave give their take.
From Robben Island to Table Mountain, Lion’s Head, Camps Bay, CafeCaprice, Cape Point where the arctic Atlantic and Indian oceans meet, to neighbouring Stellenbosch and gateway to the picturesque Garden Route, Cape Town is a slice of paradise.
The All Blacks rarely get there, though. Their first venture to the Cape in seven years is, therefore, significant.
Times have changed since their previous visit, in 2017 – and since any New Zealand Super Rugby teams last played in South Africa four years ago – but the All Blacks will always be popular among residents, partly due to historical ties.
During the apartheid era, coloured local fans hated the Springboks because the team were a symbol of racial oppression. Nowhere was this more evident than with the widespread support for the All Blacks in Cape Town.
Such hostility has lingered through generations and formed the primary reason behind the South African Rugby Union’s reluctance to stage All Blacks tests there.
Hosting the All Blacks at Newlands, Cape Town’s old stadium, featured packed stands with residents supporting the tourists.
Many of those who greeted the All Blacks at the airport this week formerly comprised a group called the Cape Crusaders.
These days, inspirational Springboks captain Siya Kolisi and popular head coach Rassie Erasmus have broken barriers to lead an inclusive environment that has transformed the team’s image, unified support and is far more reflective of South Africa.
Successive World Cup titles, too, help heal historic hurt.
The All Blacks, however, remain a huge lure in Cape Town. Premium tickets for this weekend’s rematch at the new waterfront stadium sold for 3500 rand ($351) each – more than a Stormers season ticket that guarantees 16 home games.
The All Blacks are headed to Cape Town for the first time since 2017. Photo / Marlin Clark
This weekend’s test sold out in a matter of minutes and was four times oversubscribed, with demand said to be for 240,000 tickets.
Since the turn of professionalism in 1996, the All Blacks have won four of their five tests in Cape Town – perhaps partly due to the local support they garner.
Scott Barrett, Sam Cane, Beauden Barrett (first five-eighths), Rieko Ioane (wing) and Damian McKenzie (fullback) started in the last All Blacks test there – the 25-24 victory in 2017 – with Codie Taylor, Ofa Tu’ungafasi and David Havili emerging off the bench.
In their South African home away from home, can the All Blacks harness local support to stun the Springboks?
Treasured silverware on the line
Trophies matter. Starting this weekend eight points behind the Springboks, the All Blacks are seemingly destined to lose the Rugby Championship title for the first time since 2019.
Designed to celebrate a decade of South African democracy, this year marks the 19th anniversary of the Freedom Cup. The All Blacks dominated that period, holding the trophy 16 of the 18 years.
Despite registering three wins in succession over the All Blacks for the first time since 2009 last week, the Springboks must win in Cape Town to claim the Freedom Cup because it wasn’t contested in their World Cup final.
Rest assured, the Springboks will be coming full bore for that silverware.
If Scott Robertson’s All Blacks lose this weekend, the Bledisloe Cup would be the only remaining trophy of note in the cabinet.
The All Blacks also seek to avoid four straight losses against the Boks.
A worse stretch against the All Blacks’ great rivals last occurred 75 years ago – a period that included World War II – when, from 1937-1949, South Africa won six matches in a row against the All Blacks.
Attack, attack, attack
If ever there were conflicting emotions following a loss, Ellis Park delivered it.
The All Blacks should never be content with losing. Relentless expectations are woven into the fabric of the team. The day New Zealanders stop demanding the All Blacks win is the day rugby has lost the room.
Robertson’s All Blacks have many flaws, but in going toe to toe with the world champions at their spiritual home, they proved green shoots are there. Their strong set piece; the intent to punch through the middle to earn the right to go wide; and the committed, organised defence were all on display. The attack, in the wake of Leon MacDonald’s shock exit, embraced patience and resolute decision-making, too.
While the Springboks’ depth of character, belief and, of course, the Bomb Squad – the same ingredients that propelled Erasmus’ men to three one-point World Cup knockout wins – sparked South Africa’s comeback, the All Blacks were deeply complicit in their own late demise by kicking away a 10-point lead. The propensity to opt for the boot in the final quarter cost the All Blacks.
Improving their two-from-28 kick return is non-negotiable, but staying the course for longer and maintaining attacking intent is equally imperative.
Injury setbacks to Caleb Clarke and Ethan Blackadder forced a reshuffle, but five starting changes require widespread adjustments.
Clarke, following his compelling performance that included two well-taken tries, is a big loss. His aerial ability is irreplaceable – as is his power from the edge and on the midfield crash.
Injury setbacks to Caleb Clarke and Ethan Blackadder forced a reshuffle, but five starting changes require widespread adjustments. Photo / Getty Images
Blackadder’s injury profile continues to be a major concern. His combative, abrasive style is highly valued, but it clearly comes at the risk of regular setbacks. With change the only constant, the composition of the All Blacks loose forwards remains highly contestable. Wallace Sititi’s maiden test start at blindside should, though, inject more ball-carrying punch.
Reshaping the bench with Beauden Barrett and TJ Perenara’s experience to tackle the failure to score points beyond the 52nd minute in their last three tests – and counter the Boks bomb squad – makes sense.
After a conservative start to his selection tenure, Robertson is now at a time of acute pressure, embracing the need to evolve.
Officiating blunders
In a sport as vexed and nuanced as rugby, I’m usually loath to criticise referees. Andrew Brace was, however, out of his depth at Ellis Park – his snap penalty against TJ Perenara for yelling at him while the Springboks were lying in the ruck is a case in point.
Brace’s breakdown rulings, too, were a lottery. TMO Brian MacNeice, a fellow Irishman, was non-existent in his absence from the All Blacks (lineout obstruction) and Springboks’ (Bongi Mbonambi’s clear knock-on) first tries.
While the onus is on the All Blacks, after conceding 14 penalties, to adjust to the referee, elite tests deserve vastly better officiating and appointments.
All of which enhances the spotlight on Englishman Mathew Carley and TMO Tom Foley this week.
