Editorial: Why rugby will always be king

A week on, the euphoria remains, and rightly so. New Zealand's qualification for next year's football World Cup in South Africa places it on sport's biggest stage. Between now and June 11, when the first ball is kicked, the All Whites will rarely be absent from newspaper sports pages and radio and television bulletins.

Already, there is much talk about how the game in this country can build from the momentum in a way that did not happen when New Zealand first qualified for the World Cup finals in 1982. Such discussion usually culminates in the idea that football is poised to replace rugby as the country's premier sport. At that point, the elation of the moment is giving way to wishful thinking.

It is always tempting to think a great triumph will transform a nation's passion. Hockey administrators felt this when New Zealand won the gold medal at the 1976 Montreal Olympics. Every child would soon be running around their backyard with a stick in their hand. There was no huge change. Nor, in all likelihood, will there be after 2010. But it would be a mistake to say nothing changed after the All Whites' qualification for the 1982 World Cup. The game has undoubtedly been held back by internal bickering and inept administration, but a glance at this year's All Whites line-up shows just how far it has come.

The 1982 squad had just one player - Norwich City-based Wynton Rufer - featuring outside New Zealand and Australian club competitions.

Compare that with the present team, which in crucial positions has men playing at the highest levels. Ryan Nelsen captains Blackburn Rovers in the English premiership and striker Chris Killen plays for Scottish giants Celtic. Most of the remainder turn out for clubs in either the Australian or American professional leagues or the second-tier English Championship. Some have returned to this country after successful stints abroad. Goalkeeper Mark Paston, for example, lists Bradford City on his curriculum vitae.

That speaks volumes about how pathways to the top level, notably through football academies, have dramatically improved. Much of this is down to the inspiration provided by the 1982 team, and the subsequent success of the likes of Rufer and Ricki Herbert at clubs of world renown.

Football's progress is also apparent at virtually any suburban park any Saturday morning. Soccer mums see the game as a safe activity for their offspring. Participation levels are hugely impressive. But that has not meant, and will not mean, that the game is about to replace rugby in New Zealanders' hearts.

There appears to be a fundamental reason for this. Rugby, or one of its offshoots, became the top sport wherever the British settled countries that had wide, open and green spaces. Football was appropriate to the cobbled backstreets of crowded British cities. It was left behind by those seeking a better life. In the United States, football was supplanted by gridiron, in Australia by Aussie Rules and rugby league, and in New Zealand and South Africa by rugby. Football has struggled in all these countries, except South Africa, where it was embraced by non-whites.

That has not, of course, stopped it becoming the supreme sport throughout most of the rest of the world. It is into that arena that the All Whites will step next year. But football administrators are surely rushing ahead of themselves if they expect their game to replace rugby in the national psyche. We should celebrate the World Cup qualification but not get carried away by what it means for football in this country. Experience suggests any changes will be incremental, rather than sweeping. But in terms of football's progress, they will be no less valuable for that.