Can Auckland FC go one better? Can Wellington Phoenix rebound? And which players will dominate the headlines? Ahead of the 2025-26 A-League men’s season, Herald football writers Michael Burgess and Jason Pine answer the key questions.
With minimal comings and goings, are Auckland FC a better squad or not?
Pine: I think they are. The Black Knights have retained almost all their most important players, including the entire starting back four and four of their five influential imports. Fresh arrivals Lachlan Brook and Sam Cosgrove are arguably upgrades on those they’ve replaced, with the only caveat being the loss of two-time A-League goalkeeper of the year Alex Paulsen.
Burgess: Yes. They’ll miss Neyder Moreno – who scored a remarkable eight goals from midfield and had an uncanny knack for making things happen – but Auckland FC staff promise that Australian Brook will bring a lot of X-factor to his role. Cosgrove and Jake Girdwood-Reich offer more than those they’ve replaced, with Cosgrove set to be particularly important. Paulsen’s brilliance and penchant for match-turning saves will be missed, though.
Is there a danger of second-season syndrome?
Pine: If they’d won, or even made, the Grand Final in their maiden season, then possibly yes, but the crushing disappointment of the 2-0 home semifinal loss to Melbourne Victory will have been burning Steve Corica’s men for the past five months. As such, motivation won’t be an issue.
Burgess: The biggest challenge will be reprising the hunger and matching the physical intensity from last season, when they were the fittest team in the league. It’s also hard to imagine they will win their first six games again, which created such momentum. But the sense of unfinished business – after last season’s near-miss – will be a theme throughout.
If you were to nominate two, who would be their key players this campaign?
Pine: Japanese skipper Hiroki Sakai led in deeds and actions last season and remains a hugely influential presence in Auckland’s playing squad, bringing a touch of class to everything he does on and off the pitch.
The set-piece and open-play delivery from wide areas of Francis de Vries was both eye-catching and effective as he contributed several assists last season. The arrival of Cosgrove will provide a new target for his pinpoint crosses, which should again be the source of numerous chances.
Burgess: Dan Hall is their best defender, who sets the tone with his presence and should have an even greater impact this season.
English striker Cosgrove is an intriguing addition. If he can rediscover his confidence and belief – and make the most of the opportunities created by de Vries, Sakai, Guillermo May et al – then his goals could bring more trophies to Auckland.
What is their best attacking pairing?
Pine: May will again be integral to Auckland FC’s front-third strategy, and he was most effective last year when playing off Max Mata, a more traditional target man. Similarly, Cosgrove is a tall, imposing, experienced centre-forward who should bring the best out of May, allowing him to drop off the front line and add creativity to his cutting edge in front of goal.
Burgess: Corica has options. He will start the season with May and Cosgrove, but don’t discount the importance of Jesse Randall, who has been arguably the most impressive squad member across the pre-season.
Do Auckland need to evolve their style?
Pine: They say if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and that adage applies here. Auckland FC’s front-facing, high-pressing, relentless approach paid huge dividends last season. Apart from some personnel tweaks, it’s hard to imagine why they would change too much.
Burgess: If there was an Achilles’ heel last season, it was the inability to penetrate teams that packed defences and sat deep, particularly when Auckland fell behind. The base is there, but they will want to add more variety to their attacking game.
Final placing:
Pine: 2nd
Burgess: 3rd
What is the key to improving on a poor 2024-25 campaign?
Pine: Forgetting all about it. Nothing can change what played out last season and, apart from using that disappointment as fuel, it simply must be left in the rear-view mirror. There’s no silver bullet in terms of a solution, but dwelling on last season isn’t part of it.
Burgess: There is a lot to work on, but rediscovering their defensive steel would be a good start. That was the cornerstone of their 2023-24 season, whereas last season they were porous, with a nasty habit of conceding at critical times.
How important is (some) derby success?
Pine: Very. Winning the first derby in round four would be a huge confidence boost to the team so early in the season, but as importantly, a massive pick-me-up for Yellow Fever. Wellington fans had a very tough 2024-25 campaign, and the chance to celebrate a derby win for the first time would be a real shot in the arm for what became a disillusioned fan base.
Burgess: Massive. It’s only three games out of 24, but they mean so much more. Wellington probably deserved a draw in the first derby last season and took a long time to recover from the shock of those late goals, while the subsequent 6-1 thumping in the third derby was one of the darkest days in club history.
If you were to nominate two, who would be their key players this campaign?
Pine: Skipper Alex Rufer heads into his 13th A-League season, and possibly his most important. His last campaign was severely truncated by illness, and he was then unable to help the side out of its slump. Players follow leaders and, at his best, Rufer can very effectively galvanise a playing group.
Without wanting to load too much pressure onto a player who isn’t even old enough to celebrate wins with a beer, 17-year-old attacker Luke Brooke-Smith has already shown enough to be handed a full All Whites debut last month. With a maiden season under his belt and the carrot of a World Cup spot to motivate him, he could well enjoy a breakout year.
Burgess: Goalkeeper Josh Oluwayemi has to justify his visa spot after a shaky initial season that saw him demoted for youngster Alby Kelly-Heald for a while. His unease seemed to permeate through the team and can’t be repeated.
Brooke-Smith needs to be managed carefully and shielded from pressure, but his energy and fearless approach could be a massive fillip for the Phoenix.
How will they make up for the absence of Kosta Barbarouses?
Pine: This is a significant challenge as Kosta is a genuine, proven A-League goalscorer, with 23 in the last two seasons, and 103 overall. The spotlight will fall on Nigerian import Ifeanyi Eze to lead the line and score those goals. Others will also need to chip in, but Eze needs to hit double figures.
Burgess: A lot will fall on Eze’s shoulders, and he needs to be a boom signing, rather than a bust. But the team also needs to share the goal-scoring responsibility – as Auckland managed – because Wellington’s return of 27 goals last season was embarrassingly low.
How much pressure is coach Giancarlo Italiano under, and will we see a change of playing style after the criticism last season?
Pine: “Chiefy” has already signalled a change of formation, with a back three playing a high line, as well as a more aggressive attacking approach while in possession. Italiano’s reappointment as head coach was based largely on his spectacular 2023-24 campaign as a rookie boss and he’ll need to prove quickly that last season was an aberration.
Burgess: The fact that the entire backroom staff is gone – including highly rated assistant Adam Griffiths – only heaps more pressure on Italiano to prove he has what it takes. Their playing style needs to change as, apart from not yielding results, it became dispiriting for fans and players alike by the end of the campaign
Final placing:
Pine: I hope I’m wrong, but 8th.
Burgess: They will improve, but not enough to make the finals. 7th.
A-League predictions
Premiers Plate
Pine: Western Sydney Wanderers
Burgess: Melbourne Victory
2025-26 champions
Pine: Auckland FC
Burgess: Auckland FC
Michael Burgess has been a sports journalist for the New Zealand Herald since 2005, covering the Olympics, Fifa World Cups, and America’s Cup campaigns. He is a co-host of the Big League podcast.
Jason Pine hosts Weekend Sport on Newstalk ZB. He is a regular commentator on Phoenix and Auckland FC home games.