The Government’s recent Budget has tested poorly with voters, according to the results of a new Talbot Mills Research poll.
Asked whether they thought the Budget delivered on May 22 will be good for New Zealand overall, bad, or would not make much of a difference, 33% said it would be bad and just 22% thought it would be good.
“We’ve been measuring New Zealanders’ reception of government budgets for nearly 30 years. This is the worst we’ve ever recorded,” said David Talbot, director of Talbot Mills Research.
“Across all three dimensions: overall, economic, and personal, it was judged by Kiwis to be net negative, and in each case the worst since our tracking began in 1996.”
Talbot Mills Research, which runs polls for corporate clients as well as an internal poll for the Labour Party, surveyed between May 23 and May 29.
Participants were also asked whether they thought the Budget would be good for the New Zealand economy, bad or would not make much of a difference. The results showed 30% believed it would be bad for the economy and 27% thought it would be good.
In terms of whether they thought the Budget would be good for them personally, bad or make not much of a difference, 34% of respondents said it would be bad and just 9% thought it would be good.
Delivering the Budget last week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said it was “responsible” and would “make New Zealanders better off” after a period of economic uncertainty.
“The coalition Government’s strong fiscal and economic management has ensured recovery is now under way,” she said.
“In this Budget, the Treasury is forecasting growth will accelerate over the next four years, bringing 240,000 additional jobs, rising incomes, stable inflation, lower interest rates, a return to balanced government books, and an end to rising debt.”
Among the headline initiatives announced in the Government was the establishment of Investment Boost, a new tax incentive to allow businesses to deduct 20% of the cost of a new asset immediately from their taxable income on top of normal depreciation.
According to projections, it is expected to lift the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1% over 20 years, with benefits front-loaded over the next five years.
It’s been widely welcomed by industry groups – BusinessNZ called it a “significant and forward-looking move” – as well reportedly the main Opposition party, Labour.
“Over the past 48 hours, I’ve heard from farmers, tradies, and other business owners who tell me they’re buying new machinery, tools and equipment this weekend because of Investment Boost,” said Prime Minister Christopher Luxon over the weekend.
Officials also found the incentive would have a flow-on effect to workers and “spread broadly across a wide range of New Zealanders”.
Another key change was to KiwiSaver. The Government decided to halve its annual contribution to about $260 – officials said to get rid of it altogether – and increase the default rate to 4% over the next few years. Sixteen and 17-year-olds will also be able to contribute.
“An increased contribution rate will also grow the funds available to young people for a first-home deposit. Kiwis are able to withdraw from their KiwiSaver to purchase a first home, and larger fund balances can only help,” Willis said last week.
Some businesses believed the change to the default contribution rate – which needs to be matched by the employer to 4% - would be a burden.
Official advice predicted employers would offset the majority (about 80%) of their higher contributions by offering lower than otherwise wage increases to their employees.
Budget Day also revealed the near-$13 billion the Government had saved after it this month made changes to the pay equity regime.
The changes were controversial, with the Government calling them necessary to keep the scheme fit for purpose, but the Opposition saying ministers were cutting into future potential settlements to pay for their Budget.
In terms of the overall fiscal track, Budget documents show the Government’s books will reach a surplus in 2029. But it will only be $200 million and only when using the Government’s preferred Obegalx measure – the traditional measure excluding ACC.
Survey dates were May 23-29, 2025. The sample was a nationally representative n=700 of New Zealanders aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error for a sample size of 700 at the 95% confidence level is ± 3.1%.
Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office. In 2025, he was a finalist for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.