In 2024, the All Blacks struggled in the last 20 minutes of tests, scoring seven points and conceding 50.
Scott Robertson’s team selection aims to improve final-quarter performance with key changes in the backline.
Beauden Barrett’s strategic play and new player roles are expected to enhance attack and defence.
In this age of near-infinite statistical data collection, there are all sorts of rabbit holes to go down in the pursuit of game analysis and determining where a team might be coming up short.
In trying to get to the bottom of why the All Blacks only wonthree of their six Rugby Championship tests last year, there is no need to delve too deeply into the numbers to find the answer.
The story of the All Blacks 2024 Rugby Championship can be told in one data set – their ability to score and not concede points in the last 20 minutes of each test.
In this one facet, the All Blacks were the weakest of the four teams – scoring just seven points and conceding 50.
South Africa scored 64 and conceded 10, Argentina scored 59 and conceded 31 and Australia scored 31 but conceded 70.
It’s an incredible statistic – in the last 20 minutes of each of the six tests, the All Blacks managed to score just one try.
It’s even more incredible when it’s broken down further to reveal that in the first five tests, the All Blacks didn’t score a single point in the last quarter, and that of the seven yellow cards they were shown in the tournament, six came after the 60th minute.
Their solitary final-quarter score came in their last outing against the Wallabies when Caleb Clarke crossed for a try in the 64th minute.
The compounding element in this was the concession of 50 points in the same period – which means the All Blacks were seven times more likely to concede a try in the final quarter than they were to score one.
The All Blacks can’t be dragged back into that vortex of a final-quarter points differential of -43 if they are to reclaim the title. They face a key question:has Robertson picked a side that can both score points in the final quarter and prevent Argentina from doing so?
Sevu Reece in training with the All Blacks in Buenos Aires. Photo / SmartFrame
But more generally, the set-up looks better than it did at any time last year.
It’s probably not a coincidence that Beauden Barrett started at first five-eighths in that final Rugby Championship game last year, and that the All Blacks have been better served strategically with his steady hand on the tiller.
Barrett brings a more reliable and considered kicking game than Damian McKenzie – who wore No 10 in five Rugby Championship tests last year – and the veteran playmaker has the patience, accuracy and instincts to know how to put his team in the right areas of the field.
The other key difference between the team picked to play Argentina in Cordoba this Sunday and the team that mostly appeared last year, is the injection of Billy Proctor at centre and the redeployment of Will Jordan from wing to fullback.
Will Jordan returns to the No 15 jersey for the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport
Proctor, having now been picked to start for a third time this year, has clearly been identified as the preferred No 13. The coaching group appear to be prepared to invest in him as the long-term benefits of having Proctor in the midfield are likely to be improved decision-making, slicker distribution and more cohesive facilitation of structured and unstructured attack patterns.
Or, in other words, Proctor feels like a better bet to create space than Rieko Ioane, who played mostly at centre last year. Ioane, who has shifted to the left wing, is, literally, in a better position to exploit those opportunities created by Proctor.
Overall, the backline looks better equipped to stay on task, with improved firepower to finish what it starts, although the jury remains out on whether Reece is the best option on the right wing.
And in terms of shoring up the defence, that aspect is being tackled by picking Tupou Vaa’i at blindside and maintaining Fabian Holland at lock.
These two selections give the pack greater presence and muscularity, more potent and powerful ball carriers, greater scrummaging heft and more lineout height to enhance the likelihood of the All Blacks being able to win more possession and retain it for longer.
All Blacks loosies Ardie Savea (left) and Du Plessis Kirifi will combine against Argentina. Photo / Photosport
Picking Du’Plessis Kirifi at openside, working alongside Ardie Savea, gives the All Blacks two great turnover exponents and greater potential to steal possession at critical times.
Add all that up, and the All Blacks haven’t necessarily improved their defensive structure per se, but they have given themselves more ways to exert and alleviate pressure when they don’t have the ball.
Critically, at this level, the best way to defend is by not having to defend. The biggest difference between Sunday’s team and the match-day squads being sent into action last year, is the potential to hold the ball for longer and reduce the opportunities opponents will have to score in the final quarter.
