With the surprisingly competitive French series shifting to Wellington, Liam Napier analyses how the second test could shake down.
Other than their set-piece strength, the best part of the All Blacks’ game in Dunedin was their attack. They scored four tries, with three more denied by the overbearing TMO. Finish those and the tense result presents a very different picture.
Execution prevented the All Blacks from capitalising on their dominance – they made 13 line breaks and 258 more post-contact metres than France, but committed 16 turnovers to blow many chances to strike.
With Wayne Smith in camp this week, expect the All Blacks to continue to embrace his attacking-chaos theory.
Last year Smith outlined his steadfast belief that playing fast, keeping the ball alive with attackers in motion, and harnessing clarity amid the chaos was the best way for New Zealand to regain the mantle atop the world.
“This is the way that suits our DNA; it’s been in our history, and it’s winning rugby all around the world,” Smith said.
Conditions, with rain forecast in the capital tonight, dictate that kicking will be prevalent, but after their attacking success straight off the bat, the core of the All Blacks’ intent will remain the same.
“We’ll keep creating,” coach Scott Robertson said. “If the southerly comes off the Cook Strait, we’ll adapt and play in the wind and the rain, but our intention is to use our skills as much as we can.”
How much will the All Blacks miss Scott Barrett? Possibly not at all.
Barrett returned to form at the back end of the Crusaders’ championship-winning campaign, only to depart midway through the second half of last week’s opening test with a calf complaint that ruled him out for the remainder of the French series.
With experienced Blues skipper Patrick Tuipulotu stepping into the breach, and the All Blacks continuing to harness three locks by persisting with Tupou Vaa’i as project blindside flanker, Barrett’s absence at the lineout should not be telling.
And with Ardie Savea assuming the captaincy in his home city, no one could suggest the All Blacks lack inspirational leadership.
The clamour for Savea to be installed as permanent national captain has dissipated but after he inspired Moana Pasifika to historic heights this season, his all-action, follow-me leadership style could well have a profound impact on the All Blacks too.
Wellington had a dead-set shocker by constructing its stadium without a roof some 26 years ago.
Exposed to the swirling wind, driving rain and bitter cold, it’s a miserable place for spectators so stand and applaud the hearty souls in the sold-out crowd from the warmth and comfort of your viewing venue.
For the All Blacks, inclement conditions shine a spotlight on their grim two-from-eight recent record in the capital but, perhaps more relevant this week, their poor work under the high ball.
While French flair remains evident, their more common modus operandi these days is to kick, kick, kick, and pounce on opposition mistakes.
Last week the French kicked once every 3.2 passes.
With halfback Nolann Le Garrec and first five-eighths Joris Segonds retained from Dunedin, that approach won’t change.
Caleb Clarke’s late withdrawal from the series, after suffering a high ankle sprain at Thursday training, is a notable setback as he is the All Blacks’ best at defusing high balls.
Clarke’s exit promotes Emoni Narawa‘s silky skills for a well-overdue chance, with Rieko Ioane reverting to the left edge, where France are certain to test his ability to get off the ground.
“With no escorting and the ability to tap back, there’s a lot of scraps on the ground,” Robertson said. “The aerial game is critical, and the French are very good at it. You look through their club footy to the tests and how good their kickers are.”
French coach Fabien Galthie must be a Kenny Rogers fan. He certainly comes across as a gambler.
Robertson projected the theory that the narrative surrounding the French squad has changed since the tourists pushed the All Blacks to the brink last week.
That’s true on some levels, with France exceeding expectations to showcase their talent and depth.
One performance doe not, however, alter the fact that most of France’s first-choice players remain at home and, with Galthie making 10 starting changes this week, which includes resting his captain and most experienced figure, Gael Fickou, the risk of losing cohesion is greatly heightened.
Galthie is intent on using his full 38-man squad on this tour - hence the mass rotation that involves changing seven of his eight starting forwards and injecting six more rookies.
The new-look midfield pairing of Top 14 finalists Pierre-Louis Barassi (Toulouse) and Nicolas Depoortere (Bordeaux) could challenge the All Blacks if given the opportunity.
But with one victory enough to mark a successful New Zealand venture for this vastly understrength French squad, everything points to Galthie targeting next week’s final test of the series in Hamilton.
We could talk here about how the All Blacks must improve their defence – 27 points is far too many to concede – and their breakdown, the latter with a more aggressive, urgent carry and cleanout.
Let’s instead zero in on one of the most anticipated All Blacks debuts in recent memory.
Timoci Tavatavanawai, the one-man wrecking ball dubbed “big Jim the difference”, will become the 15th rookie of the Robertson regime when he emerges off the bench.
Tavatavanawai shifted from his small Fijian village to New Zealand as a 19-year-old to progress through the professional ranks.
From Blenheim’s Central rugby club to Tasman, Moana Pasifika, the Highlanders and now the All Blacks, he has evolved from winger to destructive second five and, indeed, a Super Rugby leader after Jamie Joseph handed him the Highlanders co-captaincy this year.
Eight years after first coming to New Zealand, Tavatavanawai could prove a weapon off the bench. His first taste of the test arena may only last 15 minutes in the midfield but, after topping the Super Rugby turnover charts and bumping off countless defenders, he is built for impact.
Liam Napier is a senior sports journalist and rugby correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.