Through their frustrating form fluctuations this year – their four wins and three losses – the New Zealand scrum has remained a vaunted platform.
This is where the All Blacks will attempt to squeeze and squash the Wallabies’ spirit.
Earlier this test season, Scott Robertson’s men consistently pressured England and Argentina’s scrum and then maintained parity where the Springboks believe they lead the world.
The Wallabies scrum was, meanwhile, brutally exposed by the Pumas in their last defeat. Angus Bell is their shining light but James Slipper – the 35-year-old veteran – is under intense scrutiny to retain his position, while Taniela Tupou’s fitness is a constant question.
Former All Blacks scrum guru Mike Cron, having joined the Wallabies this year, faces an almighty task to steady the Australians for the challenge that awaits.
All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan put his pack through a series of gruelling scrums on Tuesday at Leichhardt Oval. It was telling they were the last to leave training.
All Blacks assistant coach forwards Jason Ryan (right) speaks with Ethan Blackadder during training at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney. Photo / Photosport
With Ethan de Groot and Patrick Tuipulotu back on deck after missing the South African tour through injury, the All Blacks’ scrummaging prowess should only strengthen. Losing Fletcher Newell is a setback but he was only used for 10 minutes off the bench in Cape Town.
Tyrel Lomax continues to be the cornerstone of the New Zealand scrum from tighthead prop while 24-year-old Crusaders loosehead Tamaiti Williams came of age in his two starts against the Boks.
The scrum is, therefore, the primary weapon the All Blacks intend to impose on the Wallabies.
The other will be through a relentless power-based approach. Carry, clean and tackle with menacing intent and the All Blacks should prove far too much for the Wallabies up front.
Much will be made of Australia coach Joe Schmidt’s potential inside oil, given his influential 18-month stint as All Blacks assistant that finished following last year’s World Cup. But with a new coaching team adjusting to the demands of the test arena, the All Blacks are unlikely to retain many, if any, of their set moves or lineout calls from the Ian Foster era.
Asked whether tactics would need to change to counter Schmidt’s knowledge, New Zealand assistant Tamati Ellison’s response tells you precisely where they will target the Wallabies.
“There will be a few bits obviously but fundamentally it’s a collision sport and you’ve got to win the big rocks to be in any game of rugby,” Ellison said. “That will be our focus more than trying to have anything that’s too new.”
Selection shifts
Changes are certain for the All Blacks. How many is the question. Ethan Blackadder, Caleb Clarke, de Groot and Tuipulotu are all likely to return from injury.
Tuipulotu could mark his comeback – in his first test since starting against England at Eden Park in July – by adding his power and experience to bolster the bench in place of Sam Darry.
Patrick Tuipulotu against England. Photo / Photosport
Clarke, the All Blacks’ form finisher, should return to the left wing where he claimed two tries in the loss at Ellis Park, with Blues teammate Mark Tele’a potentially shifting to the right edge.
Sevu Reece could pay the price for his yellow card in Cape Town and a performance in which the All Blacks’ back three were exposed under the high ball.
De Groot may be thrust back into a starting loosehead prop role to target the Wallabies scrum, which would allow Tamaiti Williams to play big minutes off the bench.
Billy Proctor’s late arrival to Sydney – he was not at training on Tuesday after starting for Wellington in their Ranfurly Shield defeat to Tasman in Blenheim on Sunday – curtails hopes for his second test start at centre.
The loose forwards garner widespread interest following Wallace Sititi’s impressive starting debut against the Springboks from blindside flanker, where he broke six tackles. Sititi’s natural home – as he proved in a breakout season for the Chiefs – is at No 8.
An open, expansive afternoon test against the Wallabies seems the opportune time to start Sititi at the back of the scrum and shift Ardie Savea to openside, with Blackadder returning to No 6, but whether the All Blacks agree remains to be seen.
Cortez Ratima should be retained at halfback but at some stage soon Crusaders counterpart Noah Hotham needs another crack to inject his dynamic running threat off the bench, too.
Wallabies free hit
There’s no sense of Bledisloe Cup apathy from the All Blacks, no sense they are underestimating the Wallabies. Quite the opposite.
Despite two decades of dominance, the Bledisloe remains a trophy the All Blacks treasure – second only behind the Webb Ellis Cup. And with silverware fast dwindling, with the Freedom Cup and Rugby Championship departing New Zealand Rugby HQ, the Bledisloe’s pride of place assumes greater significance.
“It’s massive. It’s sitting there in the team room,” Ellison said. “Just the amount of history around it. In my day I didn’t get an opportunity to play for it but I was in the squad at the time and to see how Ted [Sir Graham Henry] would speak about it was great. That legacy continues.
“It’s a massive trophy and one you recognise as a kid with Fitzy and others holding it up. There’s definitely some visceral feelings.”
This week is a free hit for the Wallabies. All the pressure rests on Scott Robertson’s All Blacks to retain the Bledisloe.
Dropping back-to-back tests to the world champion Springboks in South Africa is adversity New Zealanders can stomach, to a degree. The Wallabies, though, are viewed through a completely different lens.
One loss from the All Blacks’ last 12 tests against the Wallabies – and an average 17-point winning margin in their last seven victories – speaks to their dominance over their closest rivals.
The Wallabies are at home but no one expects them to win. How could anyone predict such a transformative upset after they conceded 67 points – 64 of those in the last 50 minutes – in their record loss to the Pumas in Argentina?
Schmidt’s struggles to source players he can trust are underscored by ushering in 16 test debuts this season – the most for the Wallabies since the 1960s.
Fraser McReight’s return from injury this week strengthens the Wallabies’ defensive starch and breakdown presence but falling to ninth in the world, one spot behind Italy, illustrates the scale of Schmidt’s salvage mission before the British and Irish Lions arrive next year.
For live commentary of All Blacks v Australia, join Elliott Smith on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio.
