Rugby World Cup 2023: All Blacks selectors face big challenge around Ethan de Groot

OPINION

Gregor Paul in Bordeaux

If Ethan de Groot’s judiciary hearing was a test of All Blacks coach Ian Foster’s persuasive skills, the outcome has presented him with an altogether more demanding exercise in trust.

This is a scrummaging World Cup, and the All Blacks have lost one of their best scrummagers for the next two tests.

But the problem runs much deeper than de Groot having to bide his time on the sidelines while his teammates play Italy and Uruguay.

Ethan de Groot leaves the field after a yellow card which was upgraded to red. Photo / Photosport

Much deeper, because de Groot left New Zealand six weeks ago as a rising star – a head-strong character with the resolve to do things his way, but with the capacity to conform enough to make his obstinance, belligerence and drive a supremely effective combination in building a young loose-head prop on his way to great things.

Left out of last July’s Irish test series on account of not being fit enough, de Groot, much like his fellow tight-head Tyrel Lomax, who also missed initial selection in 2022, was recalled when injuries struck, and he took his chance.

He played with the sort of controlled aggression that defines the best loose-heads. He was still a bit technically raw, but his natural strength, ability to learn and sheer determination to stand up for himself meant that he was able to more than hold his own as a scrummager.

He met quality tight-heads when the All Blacks played South Africa and England and there were no dramas.

De Groot did his bit in ensuring the All Blacks scrum had at least parity. But whatever confidence he had built in himself in the last year or so started to unravel at Twickenham, when he was clearly troubled by the scrummaging work of Springboks tight-head Frans Malherbe.

The Boks won two early penalties, both coming from de Groot’s side, and seeing the big man so depowered like that seemed to drain the confidence out of his teammates.

When the same thing happened against France in the opening game of the World Cup, the red flag was impossible to ignore.

Again, it was de Groot who was in trouble while trying to cope with the enormous power of French tight-head Atonio Uini.

And again the penalties came, with the All Blacks insisting the problem was more about perception than reality and their faith in de Groot remained rock solid.

Now, following what was essentially a poor decision combined with lazy technique in the closing stages of the match against Namibia, de Groot finds himself banned for two games, with serious questions arising about his head-space.

Last month has been tough for him as not much has gone his way, and now the All Blacks’ coaching staff will have to decide whether they have enough faith to throw de Groot back into the starting XV if they make the quarter-final.

It will be the biggest game of the past four years – one where so much of the contest will be decided by the scrummaging battle.

The margins will be so tight, the All Blacks can’t afford to give away even one kickable scrum penalty.

It won’t so much be the concession of three points that hurts them if they do, it will be the wider message that it sends: the vulnerability of the All Blacks will become a beacon for their opponents. Ireland and South Africa are like sharks - they will sniff blood from miles away and focus the pressure where they feel they will get a return.

Trying to determine the mental readiness of de Groot is going to be a huge challenge for the coaching staff, given he’s not going to be able to play between now and the quarter-final.

Will the time off be an opportunity to get him right: to get his technique refined, his confidence rebuilt and his head straight?

Or will time off be a three-week non-playing window in which emotions bubble away and the desire to make things right becomes a detrimental rather than positive force?

It is going to be a huge call, as so much is riding on it. De Groot is a battler and a grafter, and he’s shown a depth of resilience to fight his way back into the test squad and to then take the No. 1 jersey.

He’s shown he can scrummage against the best tight-heads in the international game and also get himself around the pitch, take a pass and give one.

De Groot is the archetypal modern loose-head – the best the All Blacks have, and a player that a month ago was at the top of his game and shaping up as critical to the World Cup bid.

Maybe the past three tests have been a blip; a little rough patch that should be expected at this stage in the fledgling career of an international prop.

Maybe there is something more troubling going on, but the only certainty at the moment is that de Groot has tested the patience of his coaching staff with his red card, and now he’s going to find out just how much trust they place in him.

Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.