THE FACTS
It’s safe to say that after 30 years of the New Zealand Warriors’ existence, they still don’t like making it easy for themselves.
They were their own worst enemy, dominating nearly every statistical category except the one that mattered most, the scoreboard, as they lost 26-22 to the Parramatta Eels in Auckland.
Forgetting the controversial disallowed try at the end of the match, they only have themselves to blame.
Andrew Webster’s side played like a team that knew the importance of what a win would mean – and that pressure got to them. It wasn’t until the final 25 minutes, when they started throwing the ball around, that they looked most threatening.
The loss effectively means that instead of controlling their own destiny, they now need to beat the Manly Sea Eagles and rely on other results to secure a top-four finish.
If the Warriors want to contend for a title, then getting that last spot inside the four is a must. Since the current format replaced the McIntyre system in 2012, only the 2014 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (7th) and the 2017 North Queensland Cowboys (8th) have made the grand final from outside the top four.
The biggest talking point of the game was Adam Pompey’s disallowed try in the 75th minute.
Eels fullback Isaiah Iongi and Warriors forward Demetric Vaimauga contested a Chanel Harris-Tavita bomb, with the ball appearing to go past both before ending up in the hands of Pompey, who crossed the line to score.
Referee Peter Gough awarded the try, but after two minutes, senior review official Chris Butler intervened, and another minute later, the decision was overturned.
Vaimauga admitted post-match that he touched the ball, which slow-motion replays confirmed, but there seemed to be insufficient evidence to overturn Gough’s initial ruling of a try. For the NRL Bunker to overrule an on-field call, there must be clear evidence that the ball travelled forward off the touch, which was not obvious, although the officials do have access to additional camera angles that the general viewer can’t see.
The call appeared harsh, but was probably consistent with how referees have ruled in recent years.
For me, the issue was more around the timing and how long it took from the try being awarded to then be ruled out.
There were also other questionable calls. After the Eels kicked a penalty goal to start the second half, Zac Lomax lost control of the ball in a tackle, yet play was allowed to continue.
There was also controversy in the 66th minute when a captain’s challenge was allowed, despite the appeal appearing to come more than 10 seconds after the allocated time. The challenge was ultimately ruled inconclusive.
Overall, the Warriors have an 11-12 record under Gough, so make of that what you will.
The Warriors went into the penultimate round sitting fourth, but slipped to sixth, and their chances of climbing back into the top four now appear slim.
Defeat to the Eels saw them overtaken by the Brisbane Broncos and the Cronulla Sharks, who both secured wins over the Cowboys and the Newcastle Knights respectively.
All three clubs now sit on 34 points, but the Broncos (+156) and Sharks (+91) hold the advantage thanks to their superior points differential. The Warriors, by comparison, are on +22.
For the Warriors to reclaim a top-four spot, they must beat the Manly Sea Eagles and rely on both the Broncos and Sharks losing to the Melbourne Storm and the Bulldogs respectively.
The Sea Eagles are still in contention for the final spot, although they will need heaps to go their way, but if that wasn’t enough motivation, they will be determined to send departing captain Daly Cherry-Evans out on a high, which only adds to the challenge.
Complicating matters further is the uncertainty around team selections. With the Storm and Bulldogs locked into second and third place and guaranteed a finals berth, both are expected to rest key players – potentially making what should have been tough match-ups easier for the Broncos and Sharks.
The Warriors cannot finish lower than sixth, which guarantees a home final in week one. However, that may well come against the four-time defending champions, the Penrith Panthers.
The Warriors certainly know how to do things the hard way – and one trend making life more difficult has been their slow starts, most notably conceding early points.
In their past eight games, they have conceded the first try inside the opening 10 minutes on five occasions.
Looking deeper, in the 10 matches they’ve played since round 16, the Warriors have conceded first in eight of them.
Across the season as a whole, they have conceded first 13 times, while scoring first on 10 occasions, a clear and growing trend ahead of the NRL finals.
At times, the Warriors have managed to fight back, but it has also proved costly. You could argue that the difference between winning and losing against the Eels came down to conceding the opening try – a runaway, length-of-the-field effort from winger Josh Addo-Carr.
That try laid the platform for the Eels to secure the crucial two points, as it sucked away all the early momentum the Warriors had built.
Having played a big role in his first full season, Leka Halasima has seen a significant drop in minutes in recent weeks.
Coach Webster has been clear that he wants to use the 19-year-old as an impact player for now, rather than the workhorse role he was forced into over the past two months due to injuries in the squad.
Against the Eels, Halasima played 46 minutes and his influence helped swing the momentum back in the Warriors’ favour, particularly when they trailed 20-4 early in the second half.
He scored two tries, made 32 tackles without a miss and ran for 90m, with his efforts helping the Warriors back into the contest.
The 45-60 minute range appears to be the sweet spot for Halasima and the more Webster can deploy the teenager in that role, the better it will be for the Warriors in the long run.
The Warriors head into the final round of the regular season in an intriguing position, with the potential to finish as high as fourth or as low as sixth.
Finishing fourth carries obvious benefits, including a second chance if you lose in the opening week of the finals. Sixth, however, means hosting a sudden-death clash against the seventh-placed side.
Given the injury-ravaged season the Warriors have endured, Webster may well consider resting some key players, a strategy several other clubs are also expected to adopt.
Pompey has played every minute of every game this year, while Halasima, Erin Clark and Marata Niukore have also featured in every match. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, meanwhile, has shouldered an increasingly heavy workload in recent weeks.
Some of these guys do deserve a rest, but what is more important? Giving yourself a shot at the top four or try to win from outside the top four?
Regardless, securing victory at 4 Pines Park will be no easy feat. The Warriors have not won there since 2020, during the Covid-impacted season.
But Webster has to tread carefully. The Sea Eagles still have everything to play for and will leave no stone unturned in their pursuit of the last playoff spot.
The equation is a tough one for Manly. Not only must they beat the Warriors, but they also need the Sydney Roosters to be thrashed by South Sydney and the Redcliffe Dolphins to lose to the Canberra Raiders – who may rest players after clinching the minor premiership.
What really hurts the Sea Eagles is their points differential, which sits at +20 compared with the Roosters’ +102 and the Dolphins’ +81.
Manly have shown they can pile on points, highlighted by last week’s 58-30 demolition of the Dolphins. Add in the prospect of Daly Cherry-Evans’ possible farewell, and they will be fuelled by emotion as well as ambition.
But in truth, they have likely left themselves with too much to do, as the Roosters need only a draw, or ideally a win, to lock up their place in the finals.
Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.