By any measure of football logic, the All Whites shouldn't have much more than a bolter's chance on Wednesday in Doha.
Costa Rica is a central American football powerhouse, having qualified for four of the last five Fifa World Cups.
At 31st in Fifa's rankings, they are 70 placesahead of the All Whites (101) and have a squad full of experience, with plenty of players who featured in their 2014 World Cup campaign and the last tournament in Russia.
They are also match-hardened, with 30 competitive games since the last World Cup, including a gruelling 14-match final qualifying campaign to reach this playoff, with home and away ties against the likes of Mexico, United States and Canada.
By comparison, the All Whites have barely played; 17 matches in that last four-and-a-half years and only two games (Republic of Ireland, November 2019, and Peru, last week) with opposition comparable to what they'll face on Wednesday.
That lack of experience and cohesion is the biggest concern and something that is hard to compensate for.
New Zealand fans can dare to dream, with good reason.
This All Whites team has one of strongest spines in recent memory, with Winston Reid, Joe Bell and Chris Wood.
Goalkeeper Oli Sail is coming off a superb A-League season, while Libby Cacace is already one of our best fullbacks.
There's talent aplenty and also deep desire.
Look across the squad and almost every player has experienced a significant setback or two, while generally any Kiwi footballer has to take the long road to make it in professional football.
It's a special group, with a strong culture and a collective approach.
And as coach Danny Hay has mentioned several times, all the pressure and expectation is on their opponents, with the Costa Rican nation already planning for another World Cup adventure in November.
Winston Reid during the friendly match between Peru and New Zealand. Photo / Getty
The approach from both teams will be fascinating. Will New Zealand sit and absorb pressure, defending in numbers, or play at a high tempo from the start?
Costa Rica are adept at the counter-attacking game, but won't want to be too cagey and leave the door open for a pivotal All Whites goal.
The Central Americans are strong at set pieces – almost half their goals in qualifying came from dead-ball situations - and well versed in the gamesmanship that characterises football in their region.
New Zealand will hope for a strong referee – not swayed by the feigning and diving – otherwise the momentum of the match could swing quickly.
Time will also fly in the single-leg playoff, especially for the team that falls behind.
Aside from the requirement to be defensively sound, the All Whites will need to be both rock solid and creative in possession, with their work in the final third particularly important after constructing little of note against Peru.
The All Whites will be underdogs but the first 30 minutes will be key.
If they can progress through that period unscathed, they'll have a platform to launch, rather than watching Costa Rica assume the football equivalent of lock up and leave.
Given the stage and the circumstances, a positive result would rank as one of the best performances in New Zealand football history.
And there is no reason why this current squad can't produce such an upset.
