KEY POINTS:
Given the polling gap between the two major parties, Helen Clark's Cabinet reshuffle could have felt like rearranging deck chairs on a sinking ship.
But Clark seems to have pulled it off. She probably didn't go far enough but she has promoted competent new talent into three key
election portfolios - education, health and housing.
Clark has always been a cautious and conservative manager, but the resignations of some of her ministers as well as the missteps of two others, namely Trevor Mallard and Damien O'Conner, have allowed her to present a fresher team without upsetting or bruising too many egos.
Demoting Mallard from the front bench was the very least Clark could do to avoid political fallout. The National Party now has very little to keep the Mallard sideshow going.
Clark's public counselling of, and advice to, an embarrassed Mallard was probably enough to legitimately claim he had been punished for his behaviour. Losing his sports minister's job must have been devastating for him, but Clark has loaded him up with senior portfolios.
The fact that Mallard did not lose his associate finance minister role clearly signals that if Labour is returned to the Treasury benches, Mallard will be back in the front row and take over from Michael Cullen.
Ordinary people who assault their colleagues are sacked on the spot. In fact, people get sacked for a lot less than what Mallard did. For example, I'm dealing with an employment case at the moment where a worker who was assaulted by another worker so he went home. On the way out, he impulsively kicked the offender's car.
The next morning, the victim apologised to the offender for kicking his car and promised to pay for any damage. Both workers shook hands and made up. However they both got the sack: the offender for punching the victim, and the victim for damaging the offender's car. On Friday, the Employment Authority upheld the employer's decision to fire the victim on the grounds of safety. This week Mallard was appointed the new Minister of Labour responsible for this department that rules that this worker could be sacked for an offence for which he himself received a wrist smack. The irony and the unfairness is sickening. Even my very clever lawyer says that the victim has no chance of being reinstated, as employment law is clear, no matter what the provocation. Clearly the rules of behaviour that the rest of us abide by do not apply to politicians.
Both David Cunliffe and Chris Carter are talented, hard working and safe hands and were good choices for health and education respectively. But Clark obviously felt that was enough risk on her front bench.
It's an open secret now, with the resignation of Steve Maharey and the demotion of Mallard, that Phil Goff is Clark's anointed successor. If Labour loses the election next year, Goff will be unanimously appointed to the party leadership. When you've got senior leaders of the party's left wing articulating why Goff would make a good leader, you know it's a done deal. Given that, I thought it would have been a significant gesture to the centre vote if Clark had swapped Goff and Jim Anderton in the pecking order.
Of course, Anderton is there for personal and historical reasons and Clark finds it difficult to touch him. However, promoting Goff to number three, behind Cullen, and moving Anderton to number four, would make little practical difference - but would signal a strong political message for election year. Goff is one of the strongest performers in this Government and is certainly the safest pair of hands. If the party needs to win back the centre ground, profiling Goff would have been good politics.
Mark Burton's claim that he stepped down from Cabinet so that he could concentrate on winning his Taupo seat is bizarre. I would have thought that if someone had wanted to win their seat, being a Cabinet minister would be a help, not a hindrance.
Burton has not been a strong performer. Even if we take his word that he made the decision to go, you would think he would at least have the political smarts to announce it before the Cabinet reshuffle. His dithering about whether he will even go on the party list pretty much signals that the Taupo seat is going to National and his political career will finish at the next election.
Rick Barker and Damien O'Connor haven't been given the chop, but it's clear from their demotions that Clark has no intention of putting them back into Cabinet after the election.
Steve Chadwick was a bit of a surprise Cabinet appointment, but those who know her well know she's a very competent politician and is rated highly by those who count.
Shane Jones and Maryan Street are both the next generation leaders of the Labour Party. Both have formidable pedigrees and if Labour is returned, you can expect Jones to take Parekura Horomia's spot on the front bench.
Although Street is the the Cabinet's lowest-ranking minister, she has been given serious portfolio work, including housing, so expect her also to make it to the front bench in short order.
The delegates to the Labour Party conference in Auckland this weekend know that they have their backs against the wall. They will have to fight hard every day between now and the next election if they have any hope in staying in the Treasury benches. This week's reshuffled Cabinet line-up should make their job a little easier.
