Thanks to United States President Donald Trump’s tariff regime the world looks rather different to when Luxon took office less than two years ago.
This will be Luxon’s first official visit to the UK as PM and he is expected to meet with King Charles and will also visit Kiwi troops training Ukrainians in the ongoing war.
But it will be trade and maintaining New Zealand’s place in a globalised economy which could be the most important agenda item.
“New Zealand is a champion for free trade, and I look forward to talking to Sir Keir Starmer about what our countries can do together to support the rules-based trading system,” Luxon said.
We are now in a period of global uncertainty, while we may need to make new friends we will also need to rely on our oldest and closest ones even more.
Luxon has already this year made inroads towards trade deals with India, with the necessity of inking a partnership only growing amid Trump’s assault on global trade in recent weeks.
Two-way trade with the UK, meanwhile, which we signed a free trade agreement with in 2022, was worth $7.27 billion in the year ending December 2024.
It was our seventh largest trading partner.
“The UK is also important to NZ’s prosperity,” Luxon said.
The Government appears to be setting the stage for even closer ties with Downing St. Ironically, despite a parade of prime ministers in recent years, the UK is one of our most stable and steadfast mates.
Our exports to the UK grew by more than 20% in 2024, it is likely they will continue to grow as New Zealand business and the Government seek backstops to further trade turmoil.
Luxon’s visit also follows the axing of Phil Goff as High Commissioner to the UK over comments he made about Trump last month.
In a significant speech last week, Luxon advocated for NZ working with like-minded countries to promote free trade.
“It’s why I will be heading to the UK ... to meet PM Sir Keir Starmer, to talk trade, security, and the geopolitical backdrop in Europe and the Indo-Pacific,” he said.
“We can’t make the case for NZ sitting at home. We have to position ourselves as advocates both for our own economic interests and the institutions that underpin them.”
However, Luxon didn’t give Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters a call first.
Peters, clearly worried about how Luxon’s speech would be received in the Oval Office, the next day called for politicians to “not lose their nerve” as the US and China hurtle into a trade war born of spite.
When navigating this tightrope, both are right to be worried.
Luxon must continue to be an advocate for New Zealand as a small trading economy.
But in this new world, as Goff learned, even the smallest slip of the tongue has the potential to be met with the wrath of Washington.
With the spotlight Number 10 brings, Luxon’s words in London could be some of the most important he utters this year.
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