Editorial: Labour put on notice to clean up act

It is official: Parliament now boasts an Opposition that the Government cannot ignore. The National Party's rise, confirmed in yesterday's New Zealand Herald-Digipoll survey, has sent a shiver down Labour's spine. The survey more than confirms last week's One News-Colmar Brunton poll, which the Prime Minister dismissed as a "snapshot in time". Yesterday she was not so dismissive, saying the two polls showed there were popular concerns that her Government had to address.

The change of tone suggests that Helen Clark realises that after four years of unparalleled popularity the Government's easy ride is over. That realisation would be confirmed by the second tranche of the Herald-Digipoll survey published this morning. While responses to the question "Do you think the Government is headed in the right direction?" might have been coloured by Don Brash's stand on race-based policies, a majority - including a third or more of Maori and Pacific Islanders - thought the Government was headed down the wrong path.

This Government has been lucky: it has been the beneficiary of economic well-being while much of the world has been languishing in the economic doldrums. Times, however, are changing and if Helen Clark had thoughts of echoing British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan's "You've never had it so good" to shore up her position, she should look first at the poll's economic indicators. Almost half the electorate thinks the economy is about the same or worse than it was a year ago and almost 60 per cent see either no improvement or a deterioration in the lead-up to the next election. That is not a promising position for a Government seeking a third term.

For Helen Clark herself there is the rising popularity of Dr Brash with which to contend. While he may be trailing her 28.9 per cent against 40.4 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes, three factors should be worrying the Prime Minister. First, her own popularity has slipped in successive polls. Last August she was polling 48 per cent and in January was down to 46.3 per cent. Secondly, Dr Brash's meteoric rise from 8.6 per cent only five weeks ago indicates the electorate's new-found capacity for change. And, thirdly, Dr Brash's performance rating stands at 55 per cent, little short of Helen Clark's 58.4 per cent. She should not read too much into an advantage of some 10 percentage points.

Of equal concern to the Government should be that while National's rise in popularity might have been off the back of Dr Brash's Orewa speech, the Opposition party has so far fired only one gun in its arsenal. Still to come is the exploitation of Lianne Dalziel's resignation and a paper trail that runs through the Prime Minister's own electorate office.

And beyond that is a raft of yet-to-be-unveiled National policy platforms that may strike a chord with sections of the electorate not swayed by policies relating to Maori. Health, education, retirement, commerce and law and order are all areas that offer opportunities for National to sway the electorate.

In the shorter term, the sudden change in Labour's fortunes may make for better government. Faced with an Opposition whose voice is being heard outside the House, those inhabiting the Treasury benches may find it politic to listen a little more attentively and to modify what it enacts inside the chamber. The Prime Minister's admission yesterday that "clearly people are saying they have a number of concerns, which we have to address" might signal a start to that process.

It will not be before time. There were signs that the Clark Government was succumbing to the propensity for arrogance that can characterise an Administration that is well-established and facing few threats to its survival. Those tendencies should now come to an abrupt end as Labour reconciles itself to the fact that it has been placed on notice.