As with any MMP election - with the exception of the outlier result in 2020 - the emerging Government was always going to have to make compromises in order to cobble together a parliamentary majority.
It’s no surprise that the policy platform for the National-Act-NZ First coalition swings the pendulum towards businesses rather than workers, farmers rather than environmental protections, landlords rather than renters, and towards a more punitive law and order system.
What was more interesting were the surprises - and there weren’t many. National gave zero room in terms of the tax relief it promised to deliver.
Bringing David Seymour and Winston Peters on board National’s tax-package express is no minor matter. They both questioned the credibility of the package before the election. They’ve now been privy to the inner workings behind the numbers that National refused to release in the election campaign, and have signed up.
That challenge is now more difficult, given NZ First - as expected - blocked National’s plan to open up the residential housing market to foreigners. That leaves a $740 million-a-year hole to fill. Read more >
National should be wiping the floor with Labour - but they’re not.
The 2023 election race remains tight, and though National has a bit of breathing space over Labour in recent polls, the election could still go either way.
That’s despite the economic headwinds of inflation and recession, as well as Labour’s torrent of scandals, including losing five ministers this year - Jacinda Ardern, Stuart Nash, Meka Whaitiri, Michael Wood and Kiri Allan - leaks of key policy to National, and internal disagreements over tax.
So poorly is National Party leader Christopher Luxon resonating with the public that there’s been watercooler chatter about whether the election would be all but over if his deputy, Nicola Willis, took the helm.
It’s not something National is entertaining, as it isn’t putting much stock in what the polls say about Luxon’s personal appeal. “Bugger the polls,” as Jim Bolger once said, and this is not unreasonable; poll results are hardly definitive, and they tend to heavily favour the incumbent.
But they do indicate trends, and the trend has been clear: Voters prefer Chris Hipkins over Luxon, the National Party more than its leader, and they distrust Luxon much more than they trust him. Read more >
Revelations today that Cabinet Minister Kiri Allan might have yelled at a senior public servant are not necessarily damning, although they show how Allan has boxed herself into a corner.
Asked specifically yesterday whether she was a tough boss, or whether she’d ever shouted at staff, Allan replied “no” on both counts. She repeatedly said there were no formal complaints or allegations against her, even when she wasn’t asked about those but about lower-level concerns with her behaviour.
Allan seemed so sure of her squeaky cleanliness that she lashed out at the National Party for attempting to cast a shroud of bullying over her on the flimsiest of evidence. Good on her, you’d think, so long as she has nothing to hide.
Then came the accusation this morning of Allan shouting at staff, which she had no option but to refute.
So far there are four matters about Allan’s behaviour that have arisen.
1: More than a year ago, when Allan was Conservation Minister, concerns about the working relationship were enough to see a private secretary end their secondment early.
2 and 3: Two items were found to be relevant to National MP Simeon Brown’s Official Information Act request seeking material referencing Allan’s “behaviour or conduct”.
4: The anonymous senior public official who says that Allan shouted at them during a phone call. Read more >
There was a lot of head-scratching when Labour announced a goal to reduce the prison population by 30 per cent in 15 years when it took office in 2017.
Not so much because of the aspired direction of travel - prisons were bursting at the seams and there were plans for a new mega-prison - but because the numbers seemed to have been plucked from thin air. Why 30 per cent? Why 15 years?
Two per cent for every year, Labour’s Corrections spokesman Kelvin Davis explained to the Herald in an interview yesterday, and 15 years because “it was going to take time”.
So no real rationale, then, beyond the need for a downward trend over a long enough timeline.
But a downward trend is still what Labour wants, given how prisons are an “extremely expensive training ground for further offending”, according to chief science advisor (justice) Dr Ian Lambie.
So why dump the goal now, which leader Chris Hipkins did while being questioned by reporters on Tuesday?
Maybe because it’s being used to hammer Labour while recorded crime is on the rise - including for serious and violent crime - while election day is looming. Read more >
Christopher Luxon might have seen National’s support a few percentage points higher if he had ruled out Winston Peters a few months ago. At the time, New Zealand First wasn’t registering anywhere near the 5 per cent threshold it needs to return to Parliament without winning an electorate seat.
Peters was always going to start resonating with more voters closer to the election, but a clear signal from Luxon might have swayed anyone with leanings towards both parties to tick blue.
How much potentially is this cohort of voters worth?
According to the 2017 election survey, 45 per cent of those who voted New Zealand First wanted the party to choose National. That translates to somewhere between 2 and 3 per cent, given NZ First is currently floating in the vicinity of 5 per cent. This is not an insignificant amount.
It’s also clear why Luxon didn’t do this. It was risky, given the very real possibility that National and Act wouldn’t have enough support to change the Government without Peters. It’s hardly the best look if your first move is to go back on your word.
Nor could he really rule him out now, either. Doing so might see some voters even more determined to vote NZ First and help push the party over the threshold.
Instead, Luxon came out yesterday with what everyone already knew but he had yet to articulate. He wants a National-Act coalition but will ring Peters if he needs him for the numbers to change the Government. Read more >
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery and is a former deputy political editor.
