Forsyth Barr, in a gloomy outlook for Auckland Airport, says there’s little sign of an increase in passenger capacity into New Zealand during the next financial year.
Weak cyclical conditions, poor airline economics and the deterioration in New Zealand’s competitiveness as an international tourist destination, are impacting passenger development.
The Covid passenger recovery for the airport and New Zealand more widely has stalled.
Forsyth Barr says the most perplexing passenger demand issue is the apparent deterioration of NZ’s attractiveness as a destination.
It has lost share in most of its key source markets since 2019, including Australia, by far its most important.
With Air New Zealand’s capacity impacted by its ongoing engine issues, the lack of any growth from other airlines highlights the challenging route economics for New Zealand bound services.
The subdued recovery comes as the Government mulls charging most visitors up to $100 in a visitor levy, nearly three times what it is now.
Compared to inbound tourism, the number of Kiwis taking trips overseas is running hot.
Resident traveller arrivals were 223,400 in May, increasing by 19,800 from the May 2023 month.
That was 95% of the pre-Covid-19 number of 235,200 in May 2019.
Stats NZ says 42% returned from Australia, 7% were from Fiji and 6% were from the United States, all around the same level as pre-Covid levels.
Grant Bradley has been working at the Herald since 1993. He is the Business Herald’s deputy editor and covers aviation and tourism.
