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Home / Business

New Zealand’s careful dance with US and China amid trade tensions – Fran O’Sullivan

Fran O'Sullivan
By Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business·NZ Herald·
25 Apr, 2025 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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Volatility in stock and bond markets has surged following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. Sean Keane explains why. Video / Alyse Wright
Fran O'Sullivan
Opinion by Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business, NZME
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THREE KEY FACTS

  • New Zealand politicians are cautious not to criticise Donald Trump.
  • China’s embassy is upset over some MPs’ trip to Taiwan, despite New Zealand’s adherence to the One-China policy.
  • National MP Stuart Smith defended the trip, emphasising democracy, but the timing is questioned amid US-China tensions.

New Zealand’s leading politicians are exercising restraint with the United States and are being exceptionally careful not to call out Donald Trump as a free-trade recalcitrant or more.

That’s why former title="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/abusive-bully-sacked-diplomat-phil-goff-blasts-donald-trump-again/GGQINIIQOVBIHIK2JXP4EXATHI/">High Commissioner Phil Goff got the sack for speaking too frankly about the US President’s strategy when it came to the Ukraine war and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Neither Prime Minister Christopher Luxon – off promoting himself as a global free-trade champion – nor Foreign Minister Winston Peters, Trade Minister Todd McClay or Defence Minister Judith Collins have directly criticised the Trump administration for repudiating the global order with unilateral tariffs and putting “America First” with such damaging consequences.

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All four coalition ministers are putting the bilateral relationship first by not giving offence to the US President.

But when it comes to China, the political establishment is allowing itself to be painted as operating from a different playbook.

The Chinese Embassy is incensed that New Zealand MPs effectively cocked a snoot at China by going on a recent parliamentary delegation to Taiwan, paid for by the Taiwanese.

They should have taken note of the African proverb, “When the elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers”, which is apposite.

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In essence, this means that it is the weak that get hurt in conflicts between the powerful. The US-China trade war is one such fight that, while New Zealand may be a nimble free-trader, as the Prime Minister says, it is having serious impact on global business.

It makes sense to keep heads down until our prime trade partner (China) and major trade and security partner (US) reach an accommodation.

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Particularly also as both the Chinese and New Zealand foreign ministries are endeavouring to find a mutually convenient time in the diaries of both President Xi Jinping and Luxon for his inaugural official visit to Beijing as Prime Minister.

But that common-sense approach has not filtered down to MP level.

In a statement (linked here), an embassy spokesman is quoted as saying, “the Chinese side expresses strong dissatisfaction of and firm opposition to the wrongdoings of several New Zealand MPs who, despite repeated warnings from China, insisted on colluding with “Taiwan independence” separatist forces during a trip to China’s Taiwan province”.

This is typical Chinese framing when it comes to expressing displeasure.

The statement continued, “the New Zealand side stated that relevant MPs do not hold official positions in the New Zealand Government, that their trip to the Taiwan region was private and individual, and that their words and deeds do not represent the New Zealand Government”.

“The New Zealand Government reiterated that its adherence to the One-China policy remains unchanged, and senior officials, including Cabinet ministers, will not visit the Taiwan region.”

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The difficulty is that the Chinese Government is choosing not to differentiate between the New Zealand executive and parliamentarians, particularly those belonging to the ruling coalition parties.

National MP Stuart Smith defended the trip in an RNZ interview. In essence, he stated that the Chinese are entitled to their opinion. It wasn’t an official Government or parliamentary visit. Freedom of navigation through the Taiwan Strait has been on the agenda.

It’s entirely appropriate that MPs should stand up for democracy, as Smith says.

But there is a time and a place.

The New Zealand politicians' trip to the Taiwan region was said to be private and individual.
The New Zealand politicians' trip to the Taiwan region was said to be private and individual.

The Taiwanese would have made the political calculus that by offering MPs a paid-for trip to Taiwan at this time, it would get up China’s nose. As indeed it has.

Surely, wise heads in the executive could have said “not right now?”

It remains a vexed time. Behind the scenes, Chinese Ambassador Wang Xiaolong has also reached out to some key New Zealand exporters to China for private briefings.

I don’t have a direct readout on those briefings.

But Beijing has warned its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to isolate China in Trump’s tariff war, as part of its carrot-and-stick approach to win over countries caught between the world’s two largest economies.

New Zealand will not be entering separate negotiations with the US. McClay has said the nation’s exporters already face the lowest tariff of 10%.

There is no need to get caught in a trap.

But the Chinese Ambassador would still have reinforced the message out of China’s Commerce Ministry this week: “Seeking temporary self-interest at the expense of others – in exchange for so-called exemptions – is like asking a tiger for its skin.

“In the end, it will achieve nothing and harm both others and oneself.”

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