What will Donald Trump do if Russia says no to a ceasefire?

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Osaka ... an important phone call between the two is looming this week. Photo / Getty Images

• Donald Trump will challenge Vladimir Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire after securing Ukraine’s approval.
• Ukraine expressed readiness for a ceasefire after the US agreed to restart intelligence-sharing and weapons deliveries.
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Trump, stating the ceasefire would end fighting along the entire frontline.

In the negotiations thus far, Donald Trump’s team has taken what might kindly be called a pliable approach to Russian demands, giving in to several before the hard yards of securing a peace deal even began.

But now, the calculus has changed.

In Jeddah, the United States succeeded in encouraging Ukraine to accept its proposal for a 30-day ceasefire – a more far-reaching pause in the fighting than Britain and France’s plan for a halt in attacks by sea and air. The ball, as Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said, was now in Russia’s court.

Vladimir Putin has so far shown little sign that he is willing to agree to a ceasefire, with his troops on the front foot in Ukraine and shrinking Kyiv’s salient by the day in the western region of Kursk.

At his annual press conference in December, he said that a pause in the fighting would merely give Ukraine a chance to re-arm and restock its military.

But the Russian president now faces a dilemma: as Rubio said, if Russia does not agree to a deal, “we will know who is the impediment to peace”.

The Trump administration, unlikely as it now appears, could then display some of the vengeful pirouetting for which its leader is known and turn whole-heartedly towards Kyiv.

Certainly, when they hold a phone call this week, Trump will broach the risks of Putin stalling on – or rejecting – the deal on the table.

Diplomatic reintegration

There are several strings Trump can pull. Most valuably, he could cast his willingness to bring in Moscow from the diplomatic deep freeze, and eventually participate in a raft of joint economic projects, as conditional on this 30-day ceasefire.

Putin has long deemed the presence of Nato troops near Russia’s borders as an affront that he cannot accept. There are suggestions that, in an eventual peace deal, Trump could withdraw some of the 30,000 US troops in Europe, giving Moscow greater breathing space in what it considers its own back yard.

Trump could suggest that the only way for him to be able to take such a controversial step is if Putin immediately proves his willingness for peace – a move that would, in addition, allow the two leaders to revel in confounding the dire predictions of many Western leaders.

Linked to this, Trump can tie Russia’s eventual re-acceptance into the G7, and other diplomatic forums, as conditional on a speedy ceasefire.

For Putin, a 30-day pause in fighting – a period over which he is unlikely to fundamentally reshape the battlefield – would be a relatively small pill to swallow in return for eventual normalisation of relations with the US and the fulfilment of his opposition to Nato proximity.

To push him in that direction, it is possible to imagine Trump presenting the Russian leader with a full list of potential diplomatic and economic projects, such as joint development of the Arctic, and saying that for every day Putin delays this confidence-building ceasefire, more of those options will be taken off the table.

Sanctions relief

The second key pressure point relates to the existing measures that the US has imposed on Russia – in particular sanctions.

Earlier this month, Trump expressed his first sign of frustration with Moscow, warning that he was ready to slap fresh sanctions on the regime if it kept “pounding” Ukraine while he sought peace.

There is comparatively little Washington can do in terms of ratcheting up measures on Russian industry – its trade surplus has more than halved (from $337 billion to $151 billion) thanks to existing restrictions on its energy, mining and luxury goods industries. But the US could impose secondary sanctions on nations that have helped Russia avoid them so far – for example, India, which has snapped up Russian oil.

Conversely, the US president could frame his willingness to lift sanctions on Russian energy, a key Putin demand, in line with this 30-day ceasefire. Stop fighting, and we can start talking immediately about relief, Trump could say.

There are specific cherries that the US president could dangle in front of the Russian leader, too, such as the US purchasing the Nord Stream 2 project and overseeing the operation of pipelines that would once again transport Russian gas into Europe.

Military restrictions

The final source of US leverage is weaponry and military support for Ukraine. Putin’s troops have advanced rapidly in Kursk following Trump’s decision to suspend intelligence-sharing (after Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, the taps are back on).

The Russian president is sure to try to make such support part of the deal for this initial ceasefire. It would not please Kyiv or its European allies, but Trump could once more suspend the assistance, framing it as in line with his desire to act as a “neutral” arbiter of peace.

If that is the carrot, the sticks are obvious: vastly stepped-up supplies of tanks, missiles and armoured fighting vehicles.

This is your opportunity, the US president could privately say; take it or you will never get a better one.