Syria's neighbours hope for better from new regime

JERUSALEM - Change may be glacial under an autocrat like Hafez al-Assad, but when the autocrat dies the sharp crack of shifting ice focuses minds with prospects of rapid, possibly revolutionary, developments.

As potentates gathered in Damascus this week to pay last respects, more often than not with crocodile tears, to the late Syrian President, massive reassessments were under way throughout the region.

For some, Assad's death means release from the unnerving frown of "the Lion of Damascus" at any attempt to speed up the peace process with Israel or to enter the 21st century with notions like democracy and globalisation. For others it portends new regional alignments that would replace those shaped by the Cold War and the Arab-Israeli dispute. For many, it raises the danger of chaos that could engulf Syria and the rest of the region.

The two countries most affected by Assad's passing border Syria; one, Lebanon, a puppet regime - and the other, Israel, an implacable foe. But virtually all countries in the region are affected.

For Lebanon, a new leadership in Damascus may or may not herald the withdrawal of 35,000 Syrian troops from their country. The Syrian Army, the pre-eminent force in Lebanon, has been there at the official invitation of the Lebanese Government since 1975. Since Lebanon's bloody civil war, the Syrians have been the major stablising force in the country. Following Israel's invasion in 1982, they were seen in Lebanon as a shield against further Israeli aggression.

In the wake of Israel's pullout last month, an increasing number of Lebanese and prominent Beirut newspapers have been asking why Syria still has its Army in Lebanon and whether it is not in fact an occupying force like Israel's had been.

Protests have been mounting but Beirut has thus far declined to upset the Syrians by asking them to leave. In an interview Bashar al-Assad gave shortly before his father's death, he said that he personally would honour any such request received from the Lebanese Government. Should the Syrians in fact depart, it will be a severe test for the coherence of the multi-ethnic Lebanese society.

In Israel, there is hope that the new regime in Damascus will mean a breakthrough in peace negotiations which have become so protracted that few remember when they began.

The elder Assad's legendary negotiating stubborness won him concessions from Israel few would have thought possible. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has indicated readiness to return to Syria the entire Golan Heights captured from it in the Six Day War. Barak insisted, however, on retaining a strip a few hundred metres wide on the northeast shore of Lake Kinneret at the foot of the heights in order not to grant the Syrians access to what is Israel's main water reservoir. Since the Syrian Army indeed had a presence on that shore before the Six Day War, Barak offered land elsewhere in compensation. Assad refused. There the talks foundered. Barak this week declared his determination not to cede an inch of territory, even in a land swap. What gives Israel hope that he will eventually accept compromise is that, unlike his father, Bashar is a man of his time and recognises Syria's dire need to reform its economic and educational system and create an opening to the West. He cannot achieve this without peace.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who had been snubbed by Assad for decades, was doubly grateful at the funeral - at having been invited and, almost certainly, at the funeral itself. Assad had had a long-time feud with Arafat over the killing by the Palestinians of a Syrian agent Assad had planted in their midst. This antagonism took on a far more serious hue when Arafat dared to enter into peace negotiations with israel without first having consulted Assad. In doing so, Arafat weakend Syria's bargaining position by permitting Israel to freeze talks with Assad and focus on the Palestinian track.

The Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, has likewise lost a "brother" who was cold and often critical. Egypt's leadership of the Arab world - a role stemming from its size and from the country's antiquity - was never deferred to by Assad who cut relations with former President Anwar Sadat after he established relations with Israel some 20 years ago.

Jordan's King, Abdullah, is delighted by the accession in Syria of a young leader who like himself was educated in the West. The two reportedly converse often by telephone.

A fear shared by all of Syria's neighbours is that Bashar might not be tough enough to impose his will on the multitude of interest groups in his country. If that is so, it could trigger instability throughout the region.