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Home / World

Russia-Ukraine war: 'Victory' for Ukraine means denying Russia any territorial gains from war - Western intelligence

Daily Telegraph UK
28 Apr, 2022 12:18 AM6 mins to read

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An emergency worker is helped by locals to carry a man to an ambulance following a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Photo / AP

An emergency worker is helped by locals to carry a man to an ambulance following a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Photo / AP

Western governments want to deny Russia any territorial gains from its invasion of Ukraine, officials have said in the clearest indication yet of the scale of the defeat they want to impose on Moscow.

Western officials said the current war must end with Russian forces withdrawing "at a minimum" to the positions they held at the start of the invasion in February.

Such an outcome could leave Vladimir Putin in control of Crimea and part of the Donbas, but would deny him his publicly declared war aim of "liberating" the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and establishing a land bridge to Crimea.

"Our strategic objective is to ensure that Putin is seen to fail in Ukraine," said a Western official.

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Asked what that would mean on the ground, the official said: "We would want to see Russian forces withdrawn to positions they occupied in February this year at a minimum, and no change to Ukraine's borders without the agreement of its government and its people."

The official declined to describe in detail how that would be achieved but warned the war would be a "long haul".

It came as Putin again hinted he would use nuclear weapons if the West intervened against his forces in Ukraine.

"If anyone sets out to intervene in the current events from the outside and creates unacceptable threats for us that are strategic in nature, they should know that our response ... will be lightning-fast," the Russian leader said in a speech to parliament.

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"We have all the tools for this, that no one else can boast of having. We won't boast about it: we'll use them, if needed. And I want everyone to know that," Putin said, in a reference to Russia's nuclear arsenal.

Earlier in the war, the Russian president put Moscow's nuclear deterrent forces on high alert.

Putin promised his invasion would "fulfil all the tasks" it set out to "without condition".

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, at the start of the war ruled out bargaining Ukrainian sovereignty or territory in exchange for peace.

Western leaders initially avoided ruling out such tradeoffs, sticking instead to a vague mantra, first coined by Boris Johnson in February, that the Russian invasion must be "seen to fail".

That rhetoric has changed in recent days to less ambiguous backing for a "Ukrainian victory".

Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss speaks at the Easter Banquet at Mansion House in the City of London, England. Photo / AP
Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss speaks at the Easter Banquet at Mansion House in the City of London, England. Photo / AP

Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, on Wednesday called a Ukrainian victory a "strategic imperative" and called on allies to "ramp up" defence spending to meet its weapons needs.

"Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes - digging deep into our inventories, ramping up production. We need to do all of this," she said in her annual Mansion House speech.

Her remarks echo remarks by Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, who said on Tuesday that the US and allies would move "heaven and earth" to help Ukraine win.

Austin also said after meeting Zelesnkyy in Kyiv last week that the United States wanted to see Russia "weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine", suggesting Washington's war aims go beyond simply evicting Russian troops from the country.

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It is not clear whether Western governments believe such a Russian retreat can be compelled by purely military means on the battlefield.

Weapons delivered from the West

The UK, US, and other western governments have begun delivering tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons to Ukraine to help it resist a large Russian offensive currently unfolding in the east of the country.

Downing Street said on Wednesday that it could train Ukrainian pilots in Britain and might send jets to eastern Europe to "backfill" for allies who supply warplanes to Kyiv.

However, Russia retains the advantage in manpower and guns, and the weapons pledged so far are probably not enough for a strategic counteroffensive on the scale needed to reverse the invasion.

The stated objective also leaves some gaps between the West and Kyiv.

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Johnson said after meeting Mr Zelensky earlier this month that the Ukrainian president's preference for "Russian forces to be expelled from their existing positions in Donetsk and Luhansk," which would go beyond merely a return to pre-invasion lines.

"That's a pretty maximalist position. On Crimea they're not as maximalist," he said at the time.

Men carry coffins during a funeral ceremony for a three-month-old, her mother and grandmother killed in their apartment by shelling. Photo / AP
Men carry coffins during a funeral ceremony for a three-month-old, her mother and grandmother killed in their apartment by shelling. Photo / AP

Donbas fighting intensifies

Fighting in Donbas intensified on Wednesday as Russian forces trying to surround the large Ukrainian army there captured a number of small villages.

The Russians took control of Zavody, Zarichne and Novotoshkivske and attacked the outskirts of Vilikaya Kamyshivaka by the early morning, the Ukrainian General Staff said.

Ukraine's defence ministry also warned that Russia was continuing an offensive in the direction of Nizhny and Orikhiv in the central region of Zaporizhzhya.

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Russian missiles struck a key bridge in Ukraine's Odesa region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, in an apparent bid to block grain and vegetable oil exports.

The bridge across the Dniester Estuary is on the only fully Ukrainian-controlled railway route towards the Danube.

It also lies close to the break-away Moldovan region of Transnistria, which in the past week has seen a spate of hit-and-run attacks on critical infrastructure that Ukraine and Russia have blamed on each other.

Residents of the pro-Russian enclave on Wednesday said they received fake messages purporting to be from Ukrainian authorities telling them they could be "eliminated with no prior warning". A village that hosts an ammunition dump in the region also came under rifle fire from unknown attackers, separatist authorities said.

An emergency worker is helped by locals to carry a man to an ambulance following a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Photo / AP
An emergency worker is helped by locals to carry a man to an ambulance following a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Photo / AP

Russia's advance frustrated

Moscow is seeking to complete the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas in the next "four to six weeks" with the goal of maximising its negotiating position at peace talks, the Western official said.

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But its advance has been stymied by poor logistics, bad weather, and dogged Ukrainian resistance including rapid counter attacks and special forces ambushes on supply convoys.

"All of this buys time for the Ukrainians to build up their capabilities, mobilise volunteers, and secure further military equipment," he said.

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