The United States and its major allies in Nato, including Britain, have previously rejected requests by Ukraine for no-fly zone because of the high risk of direct combat with Russian aircraft.
There has been no indication that President Donald Trump is considering such a step - especially without Russian agreeing to a ceasefire.
In recent discussions with European allies about providing post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, Trump has been adamant that no US forces would be sent to Ukraine.
Last week Nato fighter jets and air defences shot down Russian drones that entered Polish airspace as Russia was bombarding targets in Ukraine.
Jets vs drones
The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly manoeuvrable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Polish officials said that there were 19 violations and that at least three drones were shot down. The drones appear to have been unarmed decoys, often used to distract air defences. The falling debris, however, still caused damage.
Some experts and analysts noted that it was impractical and unsustainable for Nato to rely on exorbitantly expensive fighter jets and missiles in such circumstances.
Nato officials have insisted that the incident showed they are prepared to defend “every inch” of allied territory.
European officials have since described the incursion as a Russian test of Nato defences, though Trump later said, “it could have been a mistake”. Polish officials, including Sikorski and Prime Minister Donald Tusk, rebutted that suggestion.
At the weekend, Romania scrambled fighter jets after a Russian drone breached its airspace during an attack on neighbouring Ukraine. Fragments of Russian drones have fallen into Romania repeatedly during the course of the war.
‘Getting in the way’
Russia has rejected calls by Trump for a ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today that Russia was still interested in resolving the war through “political and diplomatic means” but said that “the Europeans are getting in the way”.
“Nato is de facto at war with Russia. This is obvious and needs no proof. Nato provides direct and indirect support to the Kyiv regime,” Peskov added.
While professing its willingness to make a deal, Russia has demanded that Ukraine surrender huge swathes of land, including territory not occupied by Russian forces.
Moscow also wants strict limits imposed on Ukraine’s military and assurance that Ukraine will never join Nato.
Russia has substantially ramped up its attacks on Ukraine’s cities this year, especially since the summer. Waves of drones have dominated these assaults, and Ukraine has called for more air defence systems from its Western backers.
Previous call for no-fly zone
At the beginning of Russia’s invasion nearly four years ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushed hard for Kyiv’s Western allies to establish a no-fly zone over the country, as his forces lacked the air power to repel Moscow’s extensive bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
“To establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine is to save people,” Zelenskyy said in a March 2022 video address to the US Congress, one of many pleas he made at the time.
“Humanitarian no-fly zone. Conditions under which Russia will no longer be able to terrorise our peaceful cities every day and night.”
President Joe Biden, however, refused to send US planes and pilots into Ukrainian airspace, partly for fear of sparking a direct conflict with Russia, which has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. European leaders supported Biden’s decision.
Ben Wallace, the British Defence Secretary at the time, told the BBC shortly after the conflict began that direct confrontation between Western and Russian fighter jets could trigger “a war across Europe”.
Last year, Kyiv officials floated the idea of Ukraine’s neighbours using anti-aircraft systems to shoot down missiles and drones approaching their airspace, creating a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine. Again, that proposal was rejected.
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