Gaza’s fragile five-week truce faces a major hurdle with Israel’s refusal to release Palestinian prisoners, but analysts say the ceasefire is likely to hold as Washington pushes for its extension.
“It’s actually the most complicated crisis since the beginning of the ceasefire,” Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein, of Tel AvivUniversity’s Moshe Dayan Centre, said.
While previous obstacles have tested the truce – including Hamas’ threat to stop releasing hostages over alleged violations of the ceasefire such as insufficient aid entering Gaza – Milshtein emphasised “this time, it is even more complicated”.
On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, after militants freed six hostages.
He condemned what he described as “humiliating ceremonies” by Hamas to free hostages in Gaza.
Palestinian militants in the weeks before had paraded Israeli captives and then displayed black coffins containing dead hostages on stage, sparking outrage across Israel.
Netanyahu went further on Sunday, warning Israel was ready to “resume intense fighting at any moment” in the Palestinian territory.
Released Israeli hostage Tal Shoham waves to supporters after arriving at a hospital in Petah Tikva, central Israel. Photo / AFP
‘Buying time’
Hamas, in turn, warned Israel’s decision jeopardised the “entire agreement”, stopping short of promising a return to fighting.
Despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides appeared intent on maintaining the ceasefire, Milshtein said.
“Hamas really wants to implement phase one of the deal because on Saturday, the IDF [Israeli military] is meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor,” he noted, referring to a strategic strip that runs along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
For Israel, Mairav Zonszein, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, said Netanyahu was also stuck “in the same quagmire of trying to get hostages out while trying to get rid of the people holding those hostages”.
“I think Netanyahu is kind of doing what he does best, which is dragging things out, buying time, trying to see if he can leverage withholding these prisoners,” she said.
Zonszein noted Israeli public opinion was putting pressure on Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire, particularly as more hostages are seen “coming out alive”.
Some analysts suggest Israel’s tougher stance is a calculated negotiating tactic for upcoming talks on the second phase of truce.
“I don’t think the ceasefire will collapse, it’s not in Netanyahu’s interest to have it collapse, particularly as hostages are still being held in Gaza,” said Sanam Vakil, director of UK-based think tank Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme.
“What we are witnessing now is political hardball, with them [Israel] trying to up the ante or increase pressure on Hamas” before the next phase, she said.
Israeli public opinion is putting pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire. Photo / AFP
‘Americans are key’
Phase two was “always going to be the hardest phase of the negotiations, made worse by the US position and posturing and by the fact there is no coherent Arab plan”, she said.
Trump has stirred controversy by openly suggesting the United States should take control of Gaza and expel its 2.4 million inhabitants to Egypt and Jordan.
But in recent days he has toned down his view and on Wednesday his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is due to arrive in Israel to push forward the phase-two talks.
“I think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next,” said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.
“Trump was the main factor in getting Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire,” he said, noting the deal was on the table previously, but “Trump pushed it and both the Israelis and Hamas have agreed to its terms”.
Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insists on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said if Trump threw his weight behind phase two “then it will happen”.
“It’s a tough negotiation round and the odds are we will not be able to agree on a stage-two plan, but if the Arab states buck up … and take more of an interest given Trump’s Gaza Riveria plans – there’s a possibility we could do it.”
