OPINION:
My Republican friends predict Trump will run for President in 2024 to regain power. I predict it's more likely he will run for Moscow next year to avoid prison.
The idea of Trump fleeing the US is at once shocking and darkly funny. It was suggested as satire as early as 2018 by the New Yorker magazine's humour columnist Andy Borowitz. But it's no longer completely frivolous. Consider:
• Credible stories continue to suggest that Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance intends to indict Trump and other family members shortly after he leaves office on January 20 and is no longer protected from New York State charges by presidential immunity. Vance's office described their investigation in court documents as "focused on ... insurance and bank-related fraud, tax evasion and grand larceny", plus "possibly extensive and protracted criminal conduct at the Trump Organisation". Because these would be state charges, any presidential pardons issued by or to Trump will not apply. This might explain why Trump has tried so desperately to remain in power.
• Trump's coup attempt all but collapsed Monday here when our electoral college voted 306-232 to officially certify Joe Biden's obvious victory. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell yesterday acknowledged and congratulated Biden for the very first time. This followed congratulations a few hours earlier from Vladimir Putin, who also realises it's essentially over. Trump can try to get Congress itself to raise objections when it meets on January 6 to formally accept the electoral college results. But no one expects this to work any better than Trump's 60 or so failed lawsuits. Bottom line: if Trump cannot stay in office, he loses immunity from criminal prosecution. While Biden may not want to further divide the country by prosecuting Trump for alleged crimes committed while he was President, a state prosecution for alleged business crimes would be quite different.