Bush flies to carrier in Pacific to proclaim peace in Iraq

By RUPERT CORNWELL in Washington

In a production the White House might have borrowed from Hollywood, President Bush will tell America today - from the deck of a homecoming aircraft carrier in the Pacific - that to all intents and purposes the war in Iraq is over.

Bush is flying to the USS Abraham Lincoln as it returns to San Diego to deliver what, in everything but name, is a victory speech. He will arrive on the carrier not by F-15 or F-18 jet (precluded by Navy flight safety regulations) but on a more modest twin-engined turboprop aircraft. But the event will be no less of a media spectacular for that.

The plane, with a crew of four top Navy fliers, will make a cable-assisted landing. Last night, frantic preparations for the eminent visitor were under way on the Abraham Lincoln. Never before has a President addressed his country from an aircraft carrier at sea.

In his appearance, scheduled for 9pm prime time on the East Coast (1pm NZ time), Bush will stop short of using the word "victory".

Instead, he will announce - after receiving advice from General Tommy Franks, the US commander who ran the war - that "major combat operations" have ended.

A new phase, the reconstruction of Iraq, has begun, the President will say. The circumspection is deliberate. For one thing, pockets of resistance remain, as two days of fighting between US troops and protesters in the city of Fallujah - in which at least 15 Iraqis were killed - have shown. Almost daily anti-American protests are reported, while basic services are only gradually being restored and a humanitarian crisis threatens in parts of the country.

Furthermore, as Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, has acknowledged, there are some important loose ends to be tied up - most notably the continuing failure to discover any of the chemical or biological weapons Saddam was alleged by Britain and the US to possess, which is starting to cause some embarrassment at the White House.

Then there is the uncertain fate of the dictator himself. Whatever the authenticity of a faxed message to a Arabic-language newspaper in London, purportedly signed by Saddam and announcing a future speech, American searchers have failed to establish whether he was killed by the second targeted air strike against him, on April 7, or whether he is in hiding.

Third, by avoiding a formal statement that the fighting is over, Bush will give American forces more latitude on the ground.

Under the Geneva conventions, the victor must release prisoners of war and cease operations aimed at individual enemy leaders.

The US would thus, theoretically, be barred from searching for Saddam and other leaders and possible war criminals from the ousted Baathist regime.

"This is not a formal legalistic ending of the conflict," Fleischer said. "It is the fact that major combat operations have ended."

But today, however, these considerations will pale beside the heady emotion of the moment, as the Commander in Chief arrives among sailors thrilled to be returning home to their families, their mission at last accomplished after a near-record 10 unbroken months at sea.

The joyful stage was already being set in Baghdad, where a beaming Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, went to the US base at what only a month ago was still Saddam International Airport, to hail US troops as "heroes". They had accomplished, he said, "possibly the fastest march on a capital in modern military history".

The setting of war is no less suitable for Bush. The President is never more comfortable than when surrounded by the military, which revels in his simple, unabashedly patriotic language.

The occasion will also symbolise the staggering military pre-eminence of the US, that the war to remove Saddam has underscored so clearly. This war has not only swept aside what had been billed as one of the more formidable militaries of the Middle East with ease. It has left the US in a dominant position in one of the world's most unstable yet strategically vital regions.

When Bush takes to the TV screen, that region will be his to propose, and dispose.

The Abraham Lincoln leads one of the five supercarrier groups that took part in the war. There are nine such carriers in all, symbols par excellence of American ability to project massive power to any corner of the globe. The ship alone can cost US$4 billion ($7 billion); a single carrier group, flanked by missile-carrying cruisers and guarded by nuclear submarines, packs more firepower than the entire armed forces of many developed countries.

The stage management of tonight's address is also part of Bush's domestic strategy, as he gears up for the 2004 election campaign.

- INDEPENDENT

Herald Feature: Iraq