ANALYSIS
Israel seems ready to respond in a much more forceful and public way with Iran after Tehran launched its second massive missile attack on Israel this year, analysts and officials say.
For years, Israel and Iran avoided direct confrontation, as Israel secretly sabotaged Tehran’s interests and assassinated its officials without claiming responsibility, and Iran encouraged allies to attack Israel while rarely doing so itself.
Now, the two countries seem prepared to risk a direct, prolonged and extraordinarily costly conflict.
After Israel invaded Lebanon to confront Iran’s strongest ally, Hezbollah, and Iran’s second massive missile attack on Israel in less than six months, Israel seems ready to strike Iran directly, in a much more forceful and public way than it ever has, and Iran has warned of massive retaliation if it does.
“We are in a different story right now,” said Yoel Guzansky, a former senior security official who oversaw Iran strategy on Israel’s National Security Council. “We have a consensus in Israel – among the military, the defence experts, analysts and politicians – that Israel should respond in force to Iran’s attack.”
To many Israelis, there is now little to lose: Iran’s efforts to strike the urban sprawl around Tel Aviv crossed a threshold that Tehran has never previously breached, even during its earlier missile attack in April, which targeted air bases but not civilian areas.
Critics of Israel often see the country as the primary instigator of unrest in the Middle East. But most Israelis see themselves as the victims of constant attack from Iran’s proxies – particularly Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon – and feel that they have not done enough to defend themselves. As a result, there are growing calls in Israel to make Iran fully accountable for its allies’ attacks, even if it risks an explosive reaction.
“Many in Israel see this as an opportunity to do more to inflict pain on Iran,” said Guzansky, who is now a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli research group. “To make it stop.”
Israel has yet to make a decision about exactly how to respond, six Israeli officials and a senior US official said, and the extent of its reaction will be affected by the level of support – both practical and rhetorical – provided by the United States. US forces helped Israel shoot down incoming missiles from both Iranian attacks.
The exact nature of its response may not become clear until after Rosh Hashana, the Jewish new year holiday, which runs until sundown Friday, according to the officials, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
In talks with the Israeli Government, the White House was expected to point to the relatively light damage caused by the Iranian missile attack Tuesday and urge Israeli restraint, the US official said. These pleas were expected to have little impact, the official added.
But Israel’s counter-attack is expected to be far more forceful than its response to Iran’s first round of ballistic missiles in April, when Israel conducted limited strikes on an Iranian air defence battery and did not officially acknowledge its involvement in that attack.
Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that they think the response in April was too little and too restrained, according to the senior US official. Israeli leaders feel they were wrong to listen to the White House’s urging at the time to conduct a measured retaliatory strike, the official said.
This time, Israel might target oil production sites and military bases, the officials said. Damaging oil refineries could harm Iran’s already frail economy, as well as send global oil markets into turmoil a month before the US elections.
Despite media speculation, Israel is not planning to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to four Israeli officials, even though Israel sees Iran’s efforts to create a nuclear weapons programme as an existential threat.
Targeting nuclear sites, many of which are deep underground, would be hard without US support. President Joe Biden said Wednesday that he would not support an attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites.
Still, Israel’s response “should be seen everywhere. It should be felt by Iran. It should hurt Iran,” Guzansky urged. “In order to do that, you cannot hit a radar station again.”
Israelis were deeply shaken by the Hamas-led attack on Israel of October 7 and its aftermath, an assault for them on the very idea of Israel as a haven for Jews.
Now, many have an increased tolerance for short-term danger in order to achieve long-term security, according to Sima Shine, a former senior intelligence officer who helped guide Israel’s Iran strategy. More Israelis want the Government to do “things that we didn’t do in the past, because we cannot be under ongoing attacks from all sides,” Shine said.
“This is part of the miscalculation of all our enemies around,” Shine said. “They don’t understand what Oct. 7 has done to the Israeli people, to their willingness to take much more risks.”
For Israelis, Iran also now seems more vulnerable than it has for years. After Israel killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership in recent weeks and destroyed large parts of the group’s missile stockpiles, Iran can no longer count on meaningful support from its proxy in Lebanon if Israel conducts a more forceful attack on Tehran.
“Iran is much weaker than before,” Guzansky said. “Israel is freer to do more.”
According to the senior US official, a sizable number of missiles failed on launch or before reaching Israeli air space, further exposing a vulnerability in Iran’s vaunted ballistic missile arsenal that was first revealed in April’s attack, which had an even greater failure rate.
Israel’s second successful defence against advanced ballistic missiles, coupled with Hezbollah’s weakened condition, will likely embolden Israel to opt for a more aggressive response than in April, the senior US official said.
Recent comments from Israeli leaders give a sense of their growing ambition and confidence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly addressed the Iranian public in a statement this week, hinting at his support for regime change in Tehran.
Netanyahu also struck a particularly defiant tone after the attack Tuesday night. “This evening, Iran made a big mistake – and it will pay for it,” he said. “Israel has the momentum and the ‘axis of evil’ is in retreat. We will do whatever needs to be done to continue this trend.”
To some experts, however, Israelis risk underestimating Iran’s resilience and overestimating their own ability to cause meaningful damage.
“The approach that Israel has had over 75 years has always been about hitting your enemy harder than you’re being hit,” said Andreas Krieg, an expert on warfare at King’s College, London. “That doesn’t work with a regime like Iran, though. I don’t think you can deter them.”
As a result, Israel may be able to inflict short-term damage but fall short of long-term change, he said.
“I still haven’t seen a strategy,” Krieg said. “That’s what I’m trying to get from the Israelis: What is your strategy to weaken the regime?”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Patrick Kingsley, Eric Schmitt and Ronen Bergman
Photographs by: Avishag Shaar-Yashuv and Arash Khamooshi
©2024 THE NEW YORK TIMES
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