Covid's continued affliction on New Zealand Super teams makes predicting which players will be fit, and whether games will proceed, as difficult as the outcomes of the notoriously tight derby matches.
Other than the Highlanders, the other four New Zealand teamshave again proven capable of cannibalising each other this season.
Yet when the Kiwi teams eventually emerge from the malaise of regular Covid disruptions and deflections in the coming weeks, and attempt to manage their squads amid a host of mid-week make up matches, the Chiefs should be considered the team to beat.
At the start of this season I tipped the Chiefs as dark horse title contenders. As everyone largely focused on the heavily favoured Crusaders and Blues, expecting those stacked sides to contest the final, the Chiefs flew under the radar.
The Crusaders led out of the blocks but have since sharply come back to the pack. Their second-string team performed poorly in Moana Pasifika's only outing and the Crusaders reinforcements, which included nine All Blacks in their starting team, were then upstaged at home last week. Being run down in the final quarter will hurt more than the result itself.
The Blues, to this point, have underwhelmed. Their relentless 70 minutes in their opening loss to the Hurricanes is the blueprint they have failed to replicate.
That brings us to the Chiefs. To my mind, they are now leading contenders despite sitting sixth on the skewed Super Rugby Pacific table.
Rameka Poihipi of the Chiefs scores the winning try against the Crusaders. Photo / Photosport
Such a statement may seem premature, or perhaps reactionary, after last week's comeback victory. Their first win in Christchurch for six years – achieved without co-captain Brad Weber, Josh Ioane, Josh Lord and Sione Mafileo among others - removed any notion of underdog status.
Yet it was their loss to the Blues at Eden Park the previous week that cemented their credentials in my mind.
Two weeks in succession the Chiefs have now dominated vaunted packs, the Blues and Crusaders. But for a missed Bryn Gatland penalty at Eden Park they would be 3-0.
In this regard, the balance of forward power is shifting from Christchurch to Hamilton where Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Tupou Vaa'i, Fijian-born loose forward Pita Gus Sowakula and Samasoni Taukeiaho, the most destructive ball carrier in the New Zealand game, are setting standards for physicality in contact.
This is the major concern for the Crusaders. While certain to feature near the top of the table, no longer are they laying a dominant platform that allows Richie Mo'unga the desired time and space to select his options. This is where Mo'unga has struggled at test level, too.
Mo'unga and Will Jordan's diluted influence last week speaks to the pressure applied by the Chiefs pack.
It's easy to forget, in part because they progressed to the Super Rugby Aotearoa final, that the Chiefs broke a franchise-equalling 11-game losing run last year. Such a nadir wasn't that long ago.
Clayton McMillian, a vastly unheralded coaching figure compared to his big name counterparts, has led the transformation. Chiefs chief executive Michael Collins deserves credit, too, for recognising McMillian's success in restoring mana to the franchise through his no nonsense attitude and retaining him as head coach this season.
Chiefs coach Clayton McMillan. Photo / Photosport
Shifting Warren Gatland, who endured a horror one season stint as Chiefs head coach before guiding the British and Irish Lions to their 2-1 series defeat in South Africa, to a backroom director of rugby role has been a good fit. It's allowed McMillian to retain control, Gatland to chip in with his experience behind the scenes and avoided a potentially awkward dynamic.
Winning helps, but the Chiefs culture has come full circle.
With their management set up sorted they are quietly building depth – to the point Damian McKenzie's absence in Japan is often overlooked.
Behind their three All Blacks locks Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Tom Florence and Laghlan McWhannell continue to progress. The midfield trio of Quinn Tupaea, Anton Lienert-Brown and Alex Nankivell offers balance. And at halfback there is an embarrassment of riches with Weber challenged by Xavier Roe and Cortez Ratima, the latter impressing off the bench on debut against the Crusaders.
Such depth will be pivotal to counter fatigue amid increasing mid-week make up matches.
Super Rugby Aupiki
The belated, compressed competition kicked off last Thursday and featured two further games on Tuesday in Hamilton, with the Blues and Chiefs setting up an effective final on Sunday. The foundations for their success were both laid by dominant scrum platforms.
While all matches have been played at a frenetic pace, with offloads and forceful fends celebrating the attractive New Zealand women's style, I can't shake the nagging sense that 70-minute matches and rolling subs for each 28-strong squad strikes a condescending tone.
How do those confines best prepare these athletes for the home World Cup later this year? When their male counterparts are forced to play mid-week matches in the coming weeks they won't do so under revised laws.
Bizarre bites
Mike Tyson is now selling Evander Holyfield ear-shaped cannabis edibles with a chunk missing. What next?
THE SAUCE IS ON THE BOARD. Sorry for shouting. The record to date is hardly worth celebrating, but at least the rot has been stopped – for now at least. Last week's point start tip on the Fijian Drua eased in as they went close to upsetting the defending Australian champion Reds.
This week I'll offer up a two leg multi featuring the Storm H2H against the Rabbitohs on Thursday night, and the Drua +12.5 against the Force that fetches $2.1.
Warriors feedback
Dejected Warriors players after their opening round loss to the Dragons. Photo / Photosport
I was inundated with feedback following last week's column on the Warriors, who opened their season in disheartening fashion with a round one defeat that claimed three players, including Shaun Johnson, to injuries.
This from Mark Kingi sums up the passion I love from loyal, long-suffering Warriors fans, although it's clear he only read the headline and not the piece itself.
"Morning Liam! I'm about to head off to work soon about 6.30 am and I just seen your ad about the Warriors no faith in coach and team this season. We all love sports and yes they can drive us bonkers with the same rollercoaster ride. That's sport we love em we hate em.
"I wouldn't want to be in their shoes in the toughest league tournament in the world. My point is when you read the depressing title of your argument you've set us up for failure already. I'm just saying you've given me a negative response not only for the team but starting my day off!
"Maybe highlight their strengths and how they can tighten up their weakness areas instead of writing the season before the first whistle. We know it's nigh impossible to raise the trophy but it's the journey that's important isn't it. Like family....be their good times and bad! Thank you for your time. Go the Warriors 2022."
Keep your questions and feedback coming at liam.napier@nzme.co.nz
