Asafo Aumua of the Hurricanes (right) and Ruben Love during the Hurricanes-Chiefs game in Wellington in April. Photo / Photosport
Asafo Aumua of the Hurricanes (right) and Ruben Love during the Hurricanes-Chiefs game in Wellington in April. Photo / Photosport
The demise of the Melbourne Rebels is expected to force Super Rugby Pacific to revert to an elongated 11-team competition next year and spark a change to the much-maligned playoffs format.
Despite losing their last six matches of the regular season, the Rebels travel to Wellington thisweekend to confront the table-topping Hurricanes in a quarter-final clash that will, in all likelihood, mark their last dance after confirmation last week that Rugby Australia will cut the cash-strapped Melbourne franchise adrift.
The Rebels’ imminent exit coincided with the newly formed Super Rugby Pacific Commission holding its third board meeting in Sydney last weekend, with the future of the competition dominating the agenda.
While avenues such as bringing back Argentina’s Jaguares have been explored to plug the Rebels’ exit, the Herald understands Super Rugby Pacific will run with 11 teams next year, which imposes major implications on the regular-season draw.
One fewer team will force a bye every week. Each team will, therefore, have two non-playing byes – one more than this season – and require the competition to run one week longer (from 15 to 16 weeks) and start one week earlier, in mid-February.
The Herald understands the heavily criticised eight-team playoffs format is also set to change, with powerbrokers recognising the lack of credibility such a finals system would have with only three sides missing the post-season cut next year.
This season the Rebels edged into eighth with nine losses and five wins – an underwhelming return to justify a place in the finals.
Rob Leota of the Rebels may be leading the side out for the final time against the Hurricanes. Photo / Getty Images
Next year, the Super Rugby Pacific Commission is in favour of ushering in the widely touted six-team playoffs model that would reward the top two finishers with the first week of the finals off. The remaining four teams would then engage in two knockout matches – third v sixth, fourth v fifth – with the winners earning the right to face the top seeds in the semifinals.
The other alternative proposal is for a seven-team finals format that may win favour from broadcasters thirsty for additional games in the wake of the Rebels’ exit.
Following the NFL’s (which has 32 teams across two conferences in their regular season) seven-team playoff model, Super Rugby’s top qualifier would earn the first finals week off, with the three quarter-finals determining the semifinal qualifiers.
Under this model, the late Chiefs try that denied the Blues a bonus-point victory and top spot at Eden Park on Saturday night would also have robbed them of a rest week.
While the preference from Super teams is believed to be for a compressed finals format to regain more credibility, unlike the NRL, which centralises its playoff gate takings, Super Rugby allows hosts to retain their crowd revenue. Fewer finals matches could, therefore, have a financial impact.
Next year’s “Super Round” – when all teams converge on one destination – is near certain to be shifted from Melbourne, too. The event hardly captured the imagination of locals and, without the Rebels, would be a harder sell.
A romantic scenario could, potentially, see the Super Round staged in Lautoka, but with no lights at the Fijian venue and accommodation challenges, that appears a long shot.
Auckland is unlikely to step in as host, too, with New Zealand cities not in the business of stumping up for sports events. That leaves Queensland and Perth as likely Super Round destinations.
Eden Park and Auckland could put their hands up to host the Super Round. Photo / Photosport
Beyond next year, there is a strong desire from all parties for Super Rugby Pacific to return to 12 teams. Quite where and when that team emerges, though, remains to be seen.
Attempting to forge a new team on the west coast of America or Hawaii is highly problematic and only likely to undermine competitiveness. From Japan’s Sunwolves to South Africa’s Kings, Super Rugby must learn from its chequered history of failed start-up teams.
The Jaguares boast an affinity with Super Rugby, having competed from 2016 to 2020, and reached the final in their last year. While discussions are ongoing with Argentina, no direct flights and high costs are seen as significant barriers.
Including Japan is, therefore, the preference.
New Zealand and Australia would love to welcome an established Japanese League One team, many of which are populated by former All Blacks such as Richie Mo’unga and Aaron Smith, into the Super competition – but the reality of achieving that scenario in the next 18 months is highly vexed.
Any additional team must add value and credibility – two commodities difficult to source in a congested timeframe.
Regaining a desired 12-team competition by 2026 is, therefore, no guarantee with Moana Pasifika’s future also uncertain.
While their presence is assured for next year, Moana’s future remains shrouded in doubt beyond that.
With a vastly improved coaching team, led by Tana Umaga, Moana delivered their best season this year, with four wins.
Yet with no home base and a significantly strained funding model, Moana’s delicate future could hinge on their ability to attract investors and New Zealand Rugby’s next broadcast deal.
