KEY POINTS:
Only in the America's Cup could a deadline fall due tomorrow for a regatta, of record numbers, that might not be held.
Only in the America's Cup could a multi-million dollar, 90-foot, cutting edge racing trimaran continue zipping around the ocean in training for a race that
may never come.
Only in the America's Cup could all this spell good news for Emirates Team New Zealand - whose continued sponsorship looks even more a coup as America's Cup casualties continue to wash up on the rocky coast of the global economic downturn.
Tomorrow is when challengers must have entered Alinghi's America's
Cup, the 33rd regatta. Alinghi are cockahoop that 16 entries have already been received with a further four - creating an America's Cup
record - expected.
But entry does not necessarily mean participation. Some syndicates have been so affected by lack of funds that their arrival at the much less
expensive Louis Vuitton Pacific Series in Auckland is threatened and, in the case of Mascalzone Latino and Team Germany, already scuppered.
There may be 20 names tomorrow but considerably fewer may make it to the start line. The regatta also looks heavily populated by new syndicates - 10 of them - and by those uncertain over sponsors, meaning Team NZ's chances of winning may be heightened in spite of the record numbers.
Team Germany - whose sponsor Audi pulled the plug - and Mascalzone
Latino are examples of experienced syndicates lining up for the 33rd
regatta but who are far from certain of facing the starter's gun.
There are seven Italian syndicates; perhaps not all will make it.
Only two teams could realistically be said to be strong chances to win -
Alinghi and Team NZ, although new British syndicate TeamOrigin deserve respect.
A new Russian syndicate has entered with Ross Field, the veteran New
Zealand round-the-world sailor, as spokesman.
The trimaran belongs to BMW Oracle, who have shunned the regatta -
putting their faith in winning their court case against Alinghi. Win and
they force the Swiss into a winner-takes-all challenge in vast multi-hulls thought to cost at least $15m - while all 20 challengers in
Alinghi's regatta miss out.
Lose and Oracle are out of the 33rd America's Cup. They will also end up with a white elephant trimaran of obscene proportions, reminiscent of the "arms race" - when teams spent heavily on technology and manpower in vast budgets that saw syndicates needing to spend euro 65m (NZ$155m) to compete. That compares to the $400,000-$600,000 it is estimated the Louis Vuitton Series will cost each syndicate.
Oracle also might be caught up in the sponsorship vortex. There
is talk of increasing conviction that BMW might not be along for the next regatta.
BMW's chief financial officer, Dr Michael Ganal, died last week; he was the driving force, at board level, behind the sponsorship.
That could be redundant if further talk is correct that Oracle's Larry Ellison will quit the America's Cup scene altogether if he doesn't win the court case.
Either way, except for a last-minute compromise on the courthouse steps, the next regatta looks as if it may be diluted and, for that, we have Alinghi and Oracle to blame, as well as the downturn.
It's been increasingly fashionable to blame Oracle for the prolonged court wrangle.
This has increased as Alinghi has corralled challengers by threatening non-participation while giving ground on their previously domineering
and self-serving rules for the next regatta.
That, it must not be forgotten, was the starting point. Anyone in Valencia at the end of the 32nd regatta will remember the air of disbelief and anger as Alinghi's new protocol was aired.
But, faced with the downturn, an ocean of unpopularity and the threat to the next regatta, Alinghi has brought in cost-cutting measures like only one crew and one boat per syndicate. After that, though they argued that Alinghi's self-interest was still alive and well, Oracle
have looked increasingly isolated.
New British syndicate skipper Ben Ainslie, once of Team NZ and now of
TeamOrigin, said Oracle were to blame for the continued delay by not
falling into line. However Team NZ head Grant Dalton has said previously he understood Oracle's actions. Dalton said: "Frankly, we don't disagree
with what Oracle has done. We are just hoping now that our decision to bring everyone onto the water [in the Louis Vuitton Pacific Series in January-February] makes everyone lay down their weapons."
However, Oracle's determination to go ahead with the court case only
makes it appear even more that their motivation was to force the one-on-one confrontation rather than get all challengers back in
the water, as they claimed.
Ellison, however, told Associated Press his position was simple: race
under the old rules, because they were fair.
"I don't understand why he [Ernesto Bertarelli of Alinghi] would publish a set of rules that allows him to basically steal the next Cup," Ellison said. "I don't know how he could get satisfaction. Alinghi has
won the Cup on the water, legitimately, once with Russell [Coutts] and once without. He should be proud of that. I think this strange set of rules is a tremendous mistake. I can't imagine he feels terribly
good as a result."
CHALLENGERS
Depending on the court action and sponsorship, the challengers for the 33rd America's Cup regatta which could be sailed in 2010 or 2011 are likely to be:
Argo Challenge (Italy)*
Ayre (Spain)*
Carbon Challenge (Belgium)*
Desafio Espanol (Spain)
Emirates Team NZ
French Spirit (France)*
K Challenge (France)*
Italian Challenge*
Joe Fly (Italy)*
Green Comm (Italy)*
Luna Rossa (Italy)
Mascalzone Latino (Italy)
Russia Challenge*
Shosholoza (South Africa)
Team China
Team Italia*
Team Germany (if sponsor found)
TeamOrigin (UK)*
Victory Challenge (Sweden)
* = new challenger
(BMW Oracle did not enter)