A fully fit Dan Carter will be able to take control of the Crusaders. Photo / Getty Images
A fully fit Dan Carter will be able to take control of the Crusaders. Photo / Getty Images
Super Rugby will be playing second fiddle to cricket and the main event.
Super Rugby begins its 20th year tonight with maybe not even a quarter of the excitement and intrigue as it did in Palmerston North 1996.
World Cup years are never good ones for Super Rugby. Sanzar is trying to flog hamburgers to a market that is saving itself for steak. This year Super Rugby is further compromised by having the Cricket World Cup in New Zealand and Australia. Who is going to notice if the Crusaders have fixed their lateral attack if Kane Williamson is smacking the South Africans for six?
And then there is the problem of teams being evicted from their grounds - first for the cricket then later in the year, some for the Fifa Under-20 World Cup.
Crusaders' coach Todd Blackadder won't be short of emotional drivers.
It all feels a little messy: a little like Super Rugby is a giant inconvenience to be accommodated. It is the little brother that has to be allowed to play with the older siblings' and their friends because mum said so.
As if that isn't enough to suck the life out of this year's competition, there is the communal agreement on how to manage those players in the All Black World Cup frame.
Such a deal was inevitable. The All Blacks get notoriously twitchy about player workloads in World Cup years.
Head coach Steve Hansen is loath to tell franchises how to go about their business, but he's also equally loath to sit back and watch his assets run into the ground during the Super Rugby competition.
The basic premise of the agreement is that players identified as All Blacks will not play more than five games consecutively. They will also, where possible, take an extra week off either before or after their respective teams' bye weeks.
In comparison with the enforced eight-week conditioning window of 2007, this is light touch. It is enough, however, to provide each of the five franchise coaches with a legitimate defence should things not go well.
Image 1 of 10: Hurricanes captain Brad Shields leads the team out past a guard of honour comprising Eketahuna junior rugby players
It's not really the amount of rugby the big names are going to miss, it's more the fact there is an agreement of any kind. Having specific plans to keep players fresh until the World Cup heightens the sense that Super Rugby is an exercise in filling in time.
What it also does is heighten the sense that the bigger point of interest this year is the performance of the individuals hoping to make the final cut of 31 chosen for the World Cup.
On that front, the contribution of the four aspiring first-fives will be a story of twists and turns. How will Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder use Daniel Carter and Colin Slade?
Will Aaron Cruden and Sonny Bill reunite as effectively as they did in 2012 and rip teams apart?
Can Beauden Barrett, so exquisitely skilled, improve his game management and tactical understanding and unleash a backline that may in fact be the best ever?
Cory Jane is probably in a three-way battle with Charles Piutau and Israel Dagg to make the squad. Will TJ Perenara improve his accuracy without losing any of his energy?
Can Keven Mealamu dig out one more year? Will Steven Luatua storm back into contention and can Malakai Fekitoa avoid the dreaded second season syndrome?
With this definitely being Carter's last campaign and probably McCaw's, the Crusaders are not short of emotional drivers.
Their last minute loss to the Waratahs in last year's final - particularly as referee Craig Joubert has apologised for the penalty decision - has been a stone under the towel for the better part of six months.
The fact Carter is fighting fit from day one should in itself make a huge difference. The veteran No 10 has been written off in some quarters but if his body holds up, he'll take control of his side and fix that problem of the backline sliding across the field.
Luke Romano's return should also make a difference as he brings a ball-carrying clout that was sorely missed last year.
They have the desire, the personnel, the experience and really if they do their analysis properly each week, tickle the gameplan and commit to their selections ... they stack as a potential winner.
The Chiefs have the Cruden-Williams axis to play off and with Liam Squire a growing presence at No 8 and Seta Tamanivula in the midfield, they are the other great Kiwi hope.
The Hurricanes have a backline to go all the way but a forward pack that looks just a touch fragile, while the Highlanders will be honest endeavour, basic, well-executed rugby but a bit like the Hurricanes, not quite well enough equipped up front to sustain the challenge.
And then there are the Blues. Best not to guess what might happen to them other than to say they could fluctuate between awful and brilliant and all points in between.
