The pools have been drawn and the odds are in. Here's what you need to know ahead of kickoff on September 9. Video / NZ Herald
OPINION
Gregor Paul in Lyon
When the All Blacks last played a World Cup in France, they fooled themselves into thinking they were capable of coping with adversity.
A key injury, a bad refereeing call, a yellow card, a delayed train or, quite bizarrely, a weirdjersey clash with Scotland - you name it and the All Blacks thought they had the mental strength and resilience to deal with the unexpected and breeze through it.
But it turned out they didn’t have any coping skills, and when all of those things played out at the 2007 World Cup, the All Blacks struggled to deal with each of them.
As surely everyone knows, in their infamous quarter-final they encountered an injury to Daniel Carter, a yellow card to Luke McAlister and a young referee in Wayne Barnes who opted out of officiating the second half - and the All Blacks melted down, beaten by a French side that weren’t that great, but which were certainly more street-smart.
It was an invaluable lesson for the All Blacks - that the tournament is long, unpredictable and highly likely to throw every team at it a worse-case scenario at some stage.
As much as it is important for teams to build and evolve, constantly improving their performances, so too is it vital that those who want to win it are able to accept that they are highly unlikely to have all their players available for every match, have their preferred referees in charge or get through the full eight weeks without some kind of adversity, scandal or mini-drama that requires them to adapt and adjust.
And that resilience and open mindset is going to be required to get through the opening game, as Tyrel Lomax, Brodie Retallick and Shannon Frizell are going to be missing due to injury.
All three have been flagged as unlikely starters for some time now, so the team have had ample time to train without them and get used to the idea of not having them on the field in Paris.
But the nastier surprise came earlier this week when Jordie Barrett’s knee flared up, forcing him to sit out the last few days of full training, according to defence coach Scott McLeod.
The All Blacks could be foxing a little, hinting that Barrett is a non-starter only to name him on Wednesday night (French time).
But they don’t have a history of game-playing when it comes to selection, and it just isn’t their style to muck about: players who aren’t able to train all week don’t typically get to play and so the odds are against Barrett being in the No 12 jersey for the World Cup opener.
And that’s a significant blow - one that will certainly test the resolve of the team, as arguably Barrett is the one player for whom the All Blacks don’t have anyone close to being considered a like-for-like replacement.
The youngest Barrett sibling in the squad is uniquely gifted: physically robust on both sides of the ball, direct, confrontational and yet also equipped with the vision and skill set of a first five.
That mix of brain and brawn is almost impossible to replicate and it’s likely that the All Blacks will significantly adjust their tactical blueprint should Barrett, indeed, be ruled out.
His probable replacement, Anton Lienert-Brown, a fine player indeed, brings an unorthodox approach to his midfield role - relying more on his footwork, innate timing and under-rated ability to slide on to the ball at difficult angles for defenders to read.
Anton Lienert-Brown in action against the Wallabies. Photo / Photosport
But he’s not particularly suited to carting the ball up the middle of the field the way Barrett has all season and he’s less battering ram, more distributor.
The hard part for the All Blacks to get their head around is that Barrett has been such an integral part of their best rugby this year and his straight running, where he’s able to dominate collisions in the middle of the field, and big tackling, has been a momentum-shifter.
When the All Blacks have been at their best in 2023, they have tended to send wave after wave of runners straight and hard into contact with quick recycles.
It’s similar to how Ireland play, ball-carriers winning collisions and then getting back on their feet to make themselves available again, until eventually the defence is bunched, and space opens out wide.
Barrett has been instrumental both as ball-carrier to create the space, and as decision-maker to use it - often being the one to cross-kick to the wings, or throw the long pass wide.
But the All Blacks have to get their heads around the prospect of him not playing in Paris. They have to rebuild their strategy, refine their attack, and retain their confidence in whoever wears the No 12 jersey, knowing that adversity lurks around every corner at World Cups.
