Not even the table-topping Chiefs have been able to win in Australia, and the current occupation by the Brumbies, Reds, Force and Waratahs in the top six is a basis to be wondering whether something dramatic has happened across the Tasman?
The Australian renaissance is inextricably linked to the demise of the Rebels – with the bankruptcy of the club leading to its collapse last year and a clustering of Australian talent in four rather than five teams.
That has helped strengthen all four Australian clubs, who were each able to snaffle a few players from the remnants of the Rebels.
But to say the rejuvenation is entirely due to rationalisation is to sell the Aussies short: it’s a failure to give them the credit they are due for upskilling their players across the board, rebuilding their set-piece work and at last finding a cohort of forwards that are made of something more robust than meringue.
The Wallabies didn’t transform themselves from basket case to superheroes last year, but they certainly finished the season in significantly better shape than they started it and there is a sense that the rugby intelligence brought by head coach Joe Schmidt is filtering through to Super Rugby.
Across the board they have lifted their scrummaging, found more presence at the tackled ball area, improved their pass and catch and tightened their defences.
The lift in standards has not been exponential but it has been enough to make all four of their sides harder to beat: they are less prone to making silly mistakes under pressure and more likely to finish half chances.
There is, though, perhaps something deeper embedded in the statistics, a hidden truth emerging perhaps that New Zealand’s talent pool is not as deep as it once was, while its assumed place as the world’s best developer of high-performance environments needs to be reconsidered.
This is a country that still has significant rugby IQ within the ecosystem. There are proven coaches, world-class players and sought-after support staff, but what we are maybe seeing this year is that while New Zealand still has those qualities in the mix, it no longer has them in the same volume.
The Super Rugby table shows that three of New Zealand’s teams are struggling to win anywhere – not just Australia – and potentially this is the first sign that the supply of talent is no longer deep enough to fulfil the demand.
And maybe it’s only now that the Australians have got their act together, that the question has to be asked about whether the arrival of Moana Pasifika has hurt New Zealand?
If the argument that shifting from five to four teams has boosted Australian rugby stands, then could it be said that shifting from five teams to six has damaged New Zealand rugby?
Moana are a hugely welcome addition to the competition. Their invitation to Super Rugby was long overdue and there won’t be a rugby fan on the planet who doesn’t support the concept of giving Pasifika talent a team to call their own in Super Rugby, and for that team to be a pathway to strengthen the international standing of Samoa and Tonga.
The initial idea was for Moana to be an Islands-based team – maybe not initially but to gravitate their training and playing base there over time. It was foreseen that they would predominantly, but not exclusively, pick players from Samoa and Tonga rather than heavily recruit those already identified and locked into the New Zealand and Australian development systems.
The concept is A-plus, but the reality has played out a little differently as Moana are now based at North Harbour Stadium and not scheduled to play in the Islands at all this year (there was one game against the Chiefs slated for Tonga, but it was cancelled because of concerns about the floodlights).
Of more significance in the context of the supply chain problems is that the foundation Super Rugby clubs say they are now regularly competing with Moana for players. For them, a brilliant concept is starting to manifest as a problem because of a lack of oversight to ensure Moana doesn’t morph into a sixth New Zealand team with a strong Pasifika flavour.
Super Rugby has benefited greatly from the collapse of the Rebels. But there is a real concern that the player-supply problem that plagued Australia for years is now going to be New Zealand’s problem.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.
