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Home / Sport / Rugby / All Blacks

The Wallabies’ rising appeal to coaches and why they might out perform the All Blacks by 2027 - Gregor Paul

Gregor Paul
By Gregor Paul
Rugby analyst·NZ Herald·
18 Feb, 2025 07:18 PM5 mins to read

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The Wallabies have beaten Argentina, England, and Wales, showing significant improvement. Photo / Photosport

The Wallabies have beaten Argentina, England, and Wales, showing significant improvement. Photo / Photosport

Gregor Paul
Opinion by Gregor Paul
Rugby analyst and feature writer
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THREE KEY FACTS

  • Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt is set to depart the job after this year’s Rugby Championship.
  • Schmidt’s last game in charge will be the Bledisloe Cup clash against the All Blacks on October 4 in Perth.
  • The next men’s Rugby World Cup is scheduled to take place in Australia from October 1 to November 13, 2027.

OPINION

For the third time in two years, Rugby Australia is trawling the world for a new Wallabies coach, but arguably this latest recruitment drive will be one in which the national body can legitimately claim to be offering the most enticing job in world rugby.

From being in a semi-permanent state of chaos in the last World Cup cycle, Australia is slowly getting its act together both on and off the field, to the extent, that it’s not a mad argument to promote the Wallabies as a better long-term bet than the All Blacks to win the 2027 World Cup.

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The decision to appoint Joe Schmidt as head coach after the wildly embarrassing 10-month tenure of Eddie Jones came crashing down at the 2023 World Cup, has given the Wallabies stability, structure, connection, and a sense of purpose.

There is no better means to measure their growth than to compare them with Wales, who thumped them in pool play at the 2023 World Cup but haven’t gone on to win a game since that tournament.

The Wallabies, on the other hand, beat Argentina away last year, pulled off a stunning win against England at Twickenham and hammered Wales three times.

Just as significantly, the Wallabies patently improved as the season developed and they produced credible performances against the All Blacks and were neck and neck with Ireland in Dublin in their final match of the year until they were squeezed out 22-19 in the closing minutes.

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This is a team on the rise. A team with a pack that has learned how to scrum under the watchful eye of former All Blacks guru, Mike Cron.

A team that has arguably a better back-row combination than the All Blacks, and a team that has a backline with flair, physicality.

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And in Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i, Australia has the most exciting player to come to rugby since Sonny Bill Williams and someone capable of transforming the Wallabies given his ability to break tackles and compete for high balls.

But while the Wallabies are tracking in the right direction, there is ample room for growth, and this is the attraction to any coach eyeing the role – the tide is rising but it’s nowhere near peak.

Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt is set to stand down later this year. Photo / Photosport
Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt is set to stand down later this year. Photo / Photosport

Another significant attraction is that it comes with the prospect of Schmidt operating in a consultancy role. Some coaches won’t love that idea. It will probably put them off applying, but it’s arguably the dream ticket for the Wallabies – to retain Schmidt in a capacity where he can guide and mentor the new head coach.

Experience is everything in international coaching and it would be a major coup for Australia if they could appoint a new head coach to take over in October with an agreement to work with Schmidt.

Off the field, Australia has secured an improved broadcast deal for 2026, it has lowered its costs and condensed its talent by axing the Rebels, and it has bumper pay days coming from hosting the British and Irish Lions and 2027 and 2029 World Cups.

Compare this with New Zealand, where a $60 million shortfall is looming due to the loss of Ineos as a sponsor and a reduced broadcast deal, in conjunction with investment partner Silver Lake having the right to convert its loan to equity to effectively take $20m annual distributions out of the game.

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New Zealand was the most fiscally responsible rugby entity through the last cycle and came out of Covid in better shape than most – certainly Australia – but there is a sense now that things could be unravelling and the decision to partner with Silver Lake may be about to become a millstone around the neck of the national game.

On the rugby side, questions remain about how the All Blacks can transform themselves between now and the World Cup and arrive in Australia as the team everyone fears.

There was only sporadic evidence last year that the All Blacks are building the sort of player base and tactical blueprint required to reclaim the game’s top ranking.

It was a season in which they lost four times and only occasionally produced a definitive new style of rugby to differentiate the regime of Scott Robertson from that of his predecessor, Ian Foster.

And other than Wallace Sititi, they didn’t unearth any young stars to signal where the team can radically transform its potential between now and 2027.

None of this means that Robertson won’t succeed with his vision to build into the All Blacks’ repertoire the skill sets, tactical understanding and player depth to become a multi-faceted team that can adapt to any opponent and all weather conditions.

But, based on the evidence of 2024 and the relative state of their respective administrations, the Wallabies are perhaps better placed to succeed in 2027 than the All Blacks and may be inundated with applications for the soon-to-be-vacant head coaching post.

Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.

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