Returning the previously injured Codie Taylor to start at hooker may be enough to shore up a lineout that malfunctioned in the final quarter in Wellington.
It’s a simple but undeniable analysis that the heart of the problem was inaccurate throwing and poor timing – factors that relate to the arrival of the inexperienced hooker Brodie McAlister from the bench.
Taylor has played 101 tests, McAlister two, and starting with the former and bringing on Samisoni Taukaei’aho off the bench in Auckland will give the All Blacks greater confidence in their lineout and continuity of skillset.
What they may also consider is a reversion to their earlier configuration of starting Scott Barrett and Fabian Holland at lock and pushing Tupou Vaa’i to the blindside.
That’s the combination that has given them the best supply of possession and been the one that has put the most pressure on opposition throws.
Switching Vaa’i back to No 6 would need to come with a concession that it would leave the All Blacks vulnerable to the pace and mobility of the Wallabies loose trio and potentially hand them an advantage at the tackled ball.
To combat that, the selectors could introduce Du’Plessis Kirifi at openside flanker and play Ardie Savea at No 8.
This would be a back row tailor-made for the Wallabies rather than a long-term combination to develop – one that would give the All Blacks two quick, agile foragers and open- field ball-carriers in Savea and Kirifi and one heavy traffic operator in Vaa’i.
The issues the All Blacks encountered with their scrum seem to stem mostly from the lack of game time both Tyrel Lomax and Tamaiti Williams have built this season.
Both looked short of their best in Wellington – but both will have benefited from the experience and are likely to be sharper, more technically proficient and confident this week.
The return of Cameron Roigard at halfback is going to wield the greatest influence in reshaping how the All Blacks play at Eden Park, compared with Wellington.
Roigard is a runner with the ability to break defences around the fringes of the ruck and his presence will fix the Wallabies’ inside defenders and stop them from drifting wide early.
He’s also a better facilitator of the attack than Finlay Christie, who played for 70 minutes in the capital – quicker to the breakdown and sharper in his movements – and that should enable the All Blacks to crank up the tempo at which they play.
The two toughest calls for the selectors will be what to do with the midfield and back three.
Neither unit looks settled or cohesive and while there will be a temptation to give all those who played in Wellington a chance to make amends, the argument to make change is stronger, as the attack hasn’t flowed this year, the defence has been porous at times and the work under the high ball has been consistently poor.
As flagged earlier this week, the selectors may be looking at injecting Anton Lienert-Brown at centre – believing that his experience both generally and specifically combining with Jordie Barrett may be the best way to subdue a classy Wallabies midfield.
The back three have been a problem all year – no combination has yet given the All Blacks everything they need on both attack and defence.
Arguably, the combination that makes most sense this week is to push Will Jordan to his preferred fullback role, retain Leroy Carter on one wing and give Caleb Clarke his first test of the year on the other.
Clarke is both a power runner and a high-ball retriever – and his ability to get up in the air and compete is something that neither Rieko Ioane nor Sevu Reece were able to do when they were given game time on the wing.
This set-up enables Damian McKenzie to be utilised off the bench and change the attacking shape and tempo, while it also paves the way for Leicester Fainga’anuku to resume his test career.
The coaching panel clearly want Fainga’anuku, who spent the last 18 months in France, back in the mix, but feel they need to integrate him gradually as he’s not spent much time with the team and hasn’t played a test since the 2023 World Cup.
Possible All Blacks team
15: Will Jordan, 14: Caleb Clarke, 13: Anton Lienert-Brown, 12: Jordie Barrett, 11: Leroy Carter, 10: Beauden Barrett, 9: Cameron Roigard, 8: Ardie Savea, 7: Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6: Tupou Vaa’i, 5: Fabian Holland, 4: Scott Barrett, 3: Tyrel Lomax, 2: Codie Taylor, 1: Ethan de Groot.
16: Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17: Tamaiti Williams, 18: Fletcher Newell, 19: Wallace Sititi, 20: Simon Parker, 21: Cortez Ratima, 22: Damian McKenzie, 23: Leicester Fainga’anuku.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.
